What Horses Are Easy Throw Outs Not To Win The Kentucky Derby? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

SecretAgentMan · 03-20-2015, 01:36 PM

I remember doing a thread last year, & we had a decent discussion. I know we still have 8 big prep races left before we should even think about throwing any horse out, but I'm confident in a few throw outs......

My list of throw outs as of March 20th:

OchoOchoOcho

Ocean's Knight

Lord Nelson

Mr Z

Daredevil

These are mine so far, will add many more after I've watched the races. Add your throwouts as well.

Investorater · 03-20-2015, 02:08 PM

In my top *Eight list. *

*

Ocean Knight

Ocho - 3 . . . . . . .

sbcaris · 03-20-2015, 02:53 PM

Here are some interesting points about throw outs:

1) In March of 1993 would you have thrown out Sea Hero? He certainly looked like a poor choice based on two races in Feb, a ninth place finish on dirt and a third on turf.

2) Real Quiet would have been tossed on everyone's list prior to March 13th. He finished 9th beaten 22 lengths in the Golden Gate Derby. Of course after that he raced a solid second in the San Felipe which would put him in good stead again.

3) After a tiring fourth place finish in the SA Derby would you have thrown out Charismatic in 1999? He certainly looked like a very poor choice at that time. However, after running a 108 Beyer fig in the Lexington he then becomes a viable contender.

4) Would you have tossed War Emblem on March 16th. Up to that point he would have been a toss on everyones List. Then on March 17th he runs a bang-up 98 Beyer and wins by 10 and follows that up with a 6 length win in the Illinois Derby and then wins the roses.

5)Mine That Bird was a probable toss after the Sunland Derby where he finished a tiring fourth. Then goes on to win the roses at 50-1.

Main point: Although its not likely for horses like the above to win the roses, they can on occasion fool us and come back with a big effort in another prep or just wake up on Derby day and win the roses.

SecretAgentMan · 03-20-2015, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Here are some interesting points about throw outs:

1) In March of 1993 would you have thrown out Sea Hero? He certainly looked like a poor choice based on two races in Feb, a ninth place finish on dirt and a third on turf.

2) Real Quiet would have been tossed on everyone's list prior to March 13th. He finished 9th beaten 22 lengths in the Golden Gate Derby. Of course after that he raced a solid second in the San Felipe which would put him in good stead again.

3) After a tiring fourth place finish in the SA Derby would you have thrown out Charismatic in 1999? He certainly looked like a very poor choice at that time. However, after running a 108 Beyer fig in the Lexington he then becomes a viable contender.

4) Would you have tossed War Emblem on March 16th. Up to that point he would have been a toss on everyones List. Then on March 17th he runs a bang-up 98 Beyer and wins by 10 and follows that up with a 6 length win in the Illinois Derby and then wins the roses.

5)Mine That Bird was a probable toss after the Sunland Derby where he finished a tiring fourth. Then goes on to win the roses at 50-1.

Main point: Although its not likely for horses like the above to win the roses, they can on occasion fool us and come back with a big effort in another prep or just wake up on Derby day and win the roses.

Oh, I understand exactly what you're saying, but I'm confident in all the horses ive tossed unless they run some crazy number like Charismatic did......

Of all the above horses you mentioned, Sea Hero baffles me the most & he wasn't a long shot like MTB.

I wouldn't have thrown out Real Quiet on the basis what he had won before that loss.....also, there was about a foot of water on the track that day he lost 8th by 22 lengths......he had won the Hollywood Cup G1 the month before putting up a 102 beyer. His big loss was on Jan 18th........I don't throw out horses in Jan......we're towards the end of March.

Also, horses don't run as much as they use too......Real Quiet ran 12 times before the derby, that's very unusual now a days.

I wouldnt have thrown out MTB, he ran 2nd by a neck in Feb........

I definitely threw out Charismatic, I thought he was a piece of crap......until his Lexington race.

I could make my list linger as I have plenty of other horses I don't like, but I want to see their last race.

I don't think Mr Z can win at the classic distance. He's been in 1st too many times & hits a brick wall.

sbcaris · 03-20-2015, 04:39 PM

Secret Agent Man: You said you were confident in your tosses UNLESS they run some crazy number like Charismatic.

That is why I say it is wrong to toss anybody at this point. The most important races leading up to the Derby are the Florida Derby, Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Arkansas Derby. These are the definitive races at 9 furlongs and none of them has been run yet. They are the deciding races to select the probable winner of the Derby (Not the other races at 8 and 8.5 furlongs.

Here is an interesting point. Thru the month of March last year Danza was a clear cut toss. He never had a Beyer figure higher than an 81. Then on April 14th he runs a 102 Beyer fig winning the Ark Derby by 4 1/2 lengths. All of a sudden he becomes a contender in the Derby and goes off at 8-1 and finishes third beaten only by 3 lengths. He certainly wasn't a toss in March despite not showing much until that date because he developed all of a sudden into a true contender after that April 12th powerful win in the Ark Derby.

If you read the comments about Danza in the result chart you might even say with better racing luck he wins or runs second in that Derby. Racing Luck often decides the Derby and bumping and crowding and pushing and shoving are commonplace. The comments follow:

Danza was shuffled back in the opening stages, gathered momentum into the far turn, progressed between runners at the 3/8 marker, awaited room nearing the furlongs, steered out bumping medal count, straightened out and continued on with interest

Main point: I would NOT toss any horse until the 5 major prep races are completed. That 102 Beyer fig changed many a horseplayer's outlook about this colt.

Another example from last year is Wicked Strong who was not likely to be a contender until his bang up race in the Wood Memorial on April 5th when he ran a 104 Beyer fig.

Rex Phinney · 03-20-2015, 05:04 PM

I agree that we are a good 2-3 weeks from even BEGINNING to disect the contenders.

Rex Phinney · 03-20-2015, 05:06 PM

And FWIW I think this year a longshot will win the race, the last two years the favorite won. Right now you have the top 3 horses all with big name trainers who will bring money at the window.

I was on the Orb and Chrome Bandwagon, but this year I'll be hunting a big price.

SecretAgentMan · 03-20-2015, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Secret Agent Man: You said you were confident in your tosses UNLESS they run some crazy number like Charismatic.

That is why I say it is wrong to toss anybody at this point. The most important races leading up to the Derby are the Florida Derby, Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Arkansas Derby. These are the definitive races at 9 furlongs and none of them has been run yet. They are the deciding races to select the probable winner of the Derby (Not the other races at 8 and 8.5 furlongs.

Here is an interesting point. Thru the month of March last year Danza was a clear cut toss. He never had a Beyer figure higher than an 81. Then on April 14th he runs a 102 Beyer fig winning the Ark Derby by 4 1/2 lengths. All of a sudden he becomes a contender in the Derby and goes off at 8-1 and finishes third beaten only by 3 lengths. He certainly wasn't a toss in March despite not showing much until that date because he developed all of a sudden into a true contender after that April 12th powerful win in the Ark Derby.

If you read the comments about Danza in the result chart you might even say with better racing luck he wins or runs second in that Derby. Racing Luck often decides the Derby and bumping and crowding and pushing and shoving are commonplace. The comments follow:

Danza was shuffled back in the opening stages, gathered momentum into the far turn, progressed between runners at the 3/8 marker, awaited room nearing the furlongs, steered out bumping medal count, straightened out and continued on with interest

Main point: I would NOT toss any horse until the 5 major prep races are completed. That 102 Beyer fig changed many a horseplayer's outlook about this colt.

Another example from last year is Wicked Strong who was not likely to be a contender until his bang up race in the Wood Memorial on April 5th when he ran a 104 Beyer fig.

I hear what you're saying, I didn't like Funny Cide until I saw his Wood race vs Empire Maker......that race gave me confidence to bet on a gelding from NY.

I agree that the main big prep races are must watch closely to see if we can catch a gem.

I believe I have premature elimination, haha.......I'm just ready to get threw all these prep races already & get down to business.

SecretAgentMan · 03-20-2015, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

And FWIW I think this year a longshot will win the race, the last two years the favorite won. Right now you have the top 3 horses all with big name trainers who will bring money at the window.

I was on the Orb and Chrome Bandwagon, but this year I'll be hunting a big price.

I agree that it will be a long shot........my list above should include Dortmund, Pharaoh, Carpe Diem

ArlJim78 · 03-20-2015, 06:55 PM

It's just too early for this. Let's see who gets in first.
Two weeks from Sunday would be a good time to start this kind of talk, leaving four full weeks to beat it to death.

letswastemoney · 03-20-2015, 07:19 PM

El Kabeir has zero chance.

SecretAgentMan · 03-20-2015, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

El Kabeir has zero chance.

I had this horse in my final 4 possible horses, but I think he will be outmatched on derby day.

ultracapper · 03-22-2015, 04:05 AM

I was in love with giacomo until he ran what I thought was a hanging stretch run in the SA Derby. I always think that if I hadn't gotten excited about him before the SA Derby I wouldn't have been so disappointed in that race and maybe I would have landed on him at Churchill.

Point being, it's too early not only to toss any, but to start endorsing any either. Too much between now and first Saturday in May.

Secondbest · 03-22-2015, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

It's just too early for this. Let's see who gets in first.
Two weeks from Sunday would be a good time to start this kind of talk, leaving four full weeks to beat it to death.

AMEN

SecretAgentMan · 03-22-2015, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ultracapper

I was in love with giacomo until he ran what I thought was a hanging stretch run in the SA Derby. I always think that if I hadn't gotten excited about him before the SA Derby I wouldn't have been so disappointed in that race and maybe I would have landed on him at Churchill.

Point being, it's too early not only to toss any, but to start endorsing any either. Too much between now and first Saturday in May.

I agree, but I still like putting the horses I like as of now on a short list. I don't like analyzing these horses to death & then come derby day, my head is spinning. I only pick 1 horse by derby day, not 3 or 4 to bet on.

Will there be a Charismatic or War Emblem this year? Well Pharaoh is shaping up as a War Emblem but I can't play him. Will we see a 50-1 shot like Giacomo or MTB? Possibly........if we do see a 50-1 shot win the derby, these last big prep raced are meaningless then, because they won't be 1st or 2nd.