Class rankings

[MJC922]

Queried the database this morning for lifetime performances of the entire crop. Looks like there are 5567 North American 3yos with at least three lifetime starts at this point in the year and those are the only ones I rated.

As of 2/16 the computer's best estimate of the top 100 is as follows:

1 Upstart
2 American Pharoah
3 Dortmund
4 Barbados
5 Condo Commando
6 Firing Line
7 Carpe Diem
8 Frosted
9 Bluegrass Singer
10 Mr. Jordan
11 Paulassilverlining
12 Blofeld
13 Ocho Ocho Ocho
14 Sunset Glow
15 Sarah Sis
16 Birdatthewire
17 Ready for Rye
18 Calculator
19 El Kabeir
20 Her Emmynency
21 Lady Eli
22 Majestic Affair
23 Saratoga Heater
24 Promise Me Silver
25 Wonder Gal
26 One Lucky Dane
27 Take Charge Brandi
28 Far Right
29 West Coast Belle
30 Cinco Charlie
31 Nasa
32 Souper Colossal
33 Vision Perfect
34 Ekati's Phaeton
35 Mr. Z
36 Texas Red
37 Taylor S
38 Callback
39 Consumer Credit
40 Feathered
41 Lassofthemohicans
42 Luck of the Kitten
43 Night Prowler
44 War Story
45 Bayerd
46 Bold Conquest
47 Danzig Moon
48 Freudie Anne
49 Great Stuff
50 I'm a Chatterbox
51 Leap Year Luck
52 My Johnny Be Good
53 R Sassy Lass
54 Tiznow R J
55 X Y Jet
56 Catalina Red
57 International Star
58 Another Lemon Drop
59 Croninthebarbarian
60 Danessa Deluxe
61 Nonna's Boy
62 Puca
63 Senor Grits
64 Wireless Future
65 Zandar
66 Ami's Flatter
67 Imperia
68 Lord Nelson
69 Lost Bus
70 Nun the Less
71 Oceanwave
72 Shook Up
73 Shotgun Kowboy
74 By the Moon
75 Conquest Eclipse
76 Conquest Typhoon
77 Heart's Song
78 Lady Shipman
79 Bolo
80 Bustin It
81 Danny Boy
82 Dubai Sky
83 Flashaway
84 Golden Years
85 Keen Ice
86 Lawn Ranger
87 Recount
88 Seduire
89 She's Complete (IRE)
90 Tizquick
91 Wake Up Nick
92 Classy Class
93 Courtier
94 I Spent It
95 My Fiona
96 Startup Nation
97 All in Fun
98 Enchantress
99 Milehigh Butterfly
100 Miss Temple City

[letswastemoney]

How is Sarah Sis ahead of Take Charge Brandi?

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

How is Sarah Sis ahead of Take Charge Brandi?

Good catch, fair question. To a certain extent consistency plays a role in how the computer ranks class on that particular day, the efforts that are being examined show Sarah Sis being the more 'steady' performer.

It's essentially a rank based upon the premise of each of these horses entering the gate on the day of the calculation and will of course change as each new effort is logged.

I might post an updated ranking several weeks from now if there's interest.

[MJC922]

3/9 status: 6038 North American 3yos with at least three lifetime starts.

The computer's best estimate of the top 100 class rankings today:

1	Upstart
2	Condo Commando
3	Dortmund
4	American Pharoah
5	Carpe Diem
6	I'm a Chatterbox
7	Birdatthewire
8	Firing Line
9	Ready for Rye
10	Barbados
11	Bolo
12	Sunset Glow
13	Mr. Jordan
14	Blofeld
15	El Kabeir
16	Calculator
17	Divining Rod
18	International Star
19	Her Emmynency
20	Lady Eli
21	Frosted
22	Far Right
23	Saratoga Heater
24	Sarah Sis
25	Majestic Affair
26	Ami's Flatter
27	Promise Me Silver
28	Ekati's Phaeton
29	Itsaknockout
30	Lovely Maria
31	Devine Aida
32	A Lot
33	Wonder Gal
34	Nasa
35	Prospect Park
36	West Coast Belle
37	Vision Perfect
38	Mr. Z
39	Texas Red
40	One Lucky Dane
41	Lassofthemohicans
42	Souper Colossal
43	Paulassilverlining
44	Take Charge Brandi
45	War Story
46	Huasca
47	Luck of the Kitten
48	Eskenformoney
49	Lord Nelson
50	Classy Class
51	Hillbilly Royalty
52	Puca
53	R Sassy Lass
54	Consumer Credit
55	Bluegrass Singer
56	Taylor S
57	Angela Renee
58	Callback
59	Nonna's Boy
60	Bold Conquest
61	Leap Year Luck
62	Oceanwave
63	Catalina Red
64	Stanford
65	Wireless Future
66	Fond of Sarah
67	Quality Rocks
68	Conquest Typhoon
69	Zandar
70	Danzig Moon
71	Bustin It
72	Fantastic Style
73	Keen Ice
74	Danessa Deluxe
75	I Spent It
76	Light the City
77	Nun the Less
78	Recount
79	By the Moon
80	Dubai Sky
81	My Fiona
82	Shook Up
83	Conquest Eclipse
84	Forever Unbridled
85	Cinco Charlie
86	Imperia
87	Startup Nation
88	Lost Bus
89	Courtier
90	Heart's Song
91	Tizquick
92	Flashaway
93	Lawn Ranger
94	Wake Up Nick
95	Silver Ride
96	Another Lemon Drop
97	Shotgun Kowboy
98	She's Complete (IRE)
99	Seduire
100	Island Town

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by MJC922

3/9 status: 6038 North American 3yos with at least three lifetime starts.

The computer's best estimate of the top 100 class rankings today:

1	Upstart
2	Condo Commando
3	Dortmund
4	American Pharoah
5	Carpe Diem
6	I'm a Chatterbox
7	Birdatthewire
8	Firing Line
9	Ready for Rye
10	Barbados
11	Bolo
12	Sunset Glow
13	Mr. Jordan
14	Blofeld
15	El Kabeir
16	Calculator
17	Divining Rod
18	International Star
19	Her Emmynency
20	Lady Eli
21	Frosted
22	Far Right
23	Saratoga Heater
24	Sarah Sis
25	Majestic Affair
26	Ami's Flatter
27	Promise Me Silver
28	Ekati's Phaeton
29	Itsaknockout
30	Lovely Maria
31	Devine Aida
32	A Lot
33	Wonder Gal
34	Nasa
35	Prospect Park
36	West Coast Belle
37	Vision Perfect
38	Mr. Z
39	Texas Red
40	One Lucky Dane
41	Lassofthemohicans
42	Souper Colossal
43	Paulassilverlining
44	Take Charge Brandi
45	War Story
46	Huasca
47	Luck of the Kitten
48	Eskenformoney
49	Lord Nelson
50	Classy Class
51	Hillbilly Royalty
52	Puca
53	R Sassy Lass
54	Consumer Credit
55	Bluegrass Singer
56	Taylor S
57	Angela Renee
58	Callback
59	Nonna's Boy
60	Bold Conquest
61	Leap Year Luck
62	Oceanwave
63	Catalina Red
64	Stanford
65	Wireless Future
66	Fond of Sarah
67	Quality Rocks
68	Conquest Typhoon
69	Zandar
70	Danzig Moon
71	Bustin It
72	Fantastic Style
73	Keen Ice
74	Danessa Deluxe
75	I Spent It
76	Light the City
77	Nun the Less
78	Recount
79	By the Moon
80	Dubai Sky
81	My Fiona
82	Shook Up
83	Conquest Eclipse
84	Forever Unbridled
85	Cinco Charlie
86	Imperia
87	Startup Nation
88	Lost Bus
89	Courtier
90	Heart's Song
91	Tizquick
92	Flashaway
93	Lawn Ranger
94	Wake Up Nick
95	Silver Ride
96	Another Lemon Drop
97	Shotgun Kowboy
98	She's Complete (IRE)
99	Seduire
100	Island Town

MJ, I see you have Upstart at #1, do you take into consideration his very slow final time of 1:46 in the FOY? Or is the class you're talking about just pedigree, excuse me for asking......

[classhandicapper]

I love this sort of thing.

Do you have some sort of adjustment in place for fillies relative to colts?

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

MJ, I see you have Upstart at #1, do you take into consideration his very slow final time of 1:46 in the FOY? Or is the class you're talking about just pedigree, excuse me for asking......

Hi S.A.M. the 1:46 time is ignored. The computer is looking at horse against horse, the final margins and the weights.

[Spiderman]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

How is Sarah Sis ahead of Take Charge Brandi?

Take Charge Brandi off the trail due to bone chip. Announced today.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I love this sort of thing.

Do you have some sort of adjustment in place for fillies relative to colts?

Hi Class, in theory it's self-correcting. When females face males they're looked at no differently, it's looking at everyone in the pool so to speak and the pecking order inevitably shakes out over time. You can confirm the validity that it is indeed self correcting when you query the winning efforts to obtain class pars and the fillies come in with a weaker par as expected.

Probably as pure a measure of 'current class' as I could develop anyway. Took awhile, it better be more than good, it better be without equal.

[MJC922]

1	Upstart
2	Condo Commando
3	Firing Line
4	Dortmund
5	Carpe Diem
6	American Pharoah
7	Birdatthewire
8	I'm a Chatterbox
9	Ready for Rye
10	Blofeld
11	Barbados
12	Bolo
13	Mr. Jordan
14	Sunset Glow
15	Lady Eli
16	El Kabeir
17	Calculator
18	Divining Rod
19	Her Emmynency
20	Noble and a Beauty
21	Taylor S
22	Saratoga Heater
23	International Star
24	Sarah Sis
25	Ekati's Phaeton
26	Itsaknockout
27	Frosted
28	Lovely Maria
29	Ami's Flatter
30	Wonder Gal
31	Promise Me Silver
32	Far Right
33	Vision Perfect
34	Nasa
35	Majestic Affair
36	Lassofthemohicans
37	Huasca
38	Take Charge Brandi
39	Devine Aida
40	Mr. Z
41	Paulassilverlining
42	West Coast Belle
43	War Story
44	A Lot
45	Souper Colossal
46	Prospect Park
47	Dogwood Trail
48	Texas Red
49	Nonna's Boy
50	Classy Class
51	Puca
52	Eskenformoney
53	Bustin It
54	One Lucky Dane
55	Sir Alfred
56	Hillbilly Royalty
57	Consumer Credit
58	R Sassy Lass
59	Luck of the Kitten
60	Recount
61	By the Moon
62	Leap Year Luck
63	Lord Nelson
64	Fantastic Style
65	Bluegrass Singer
66	Angela Renee
67	Subtle Indian
68	Stanford
69	Oceanwave
70	Danzig Moon
71	Leave the Light On
72	Dubai Sky
73	Zandar
74	Catalina Red
75	Quality Rocks
76	Papacoolpapacool
77	Conquest Typhoon
78	Keen Ice
79	Shook Up
80	Forever Unbridled
81	Lady Shipman
82	Fond of Sarah
83	Danessa Deluxe
84	Poseidon's Way
85	Nun the Less
86	Island Town
87	Conquest Eclipse
88	Light the City
89	Startup Nation
90	She's Complete (IRE)
91	Heart's Song
92	El Deal
93	Lawn Ranger
94	Silver Ride
95	Cinco Charlie
96	Callback
97	Flashaway
98	Hard to Port
99	Lost Bus
100	Courtier

[MJC922]

1	Upstart
2	Condo Commando
3	Materiality
4	Firing Line
5	Dortmund
6	Carpe Diem
7	American Pharoah
8	Birdatthewire
9	Competitive Edge
10	Ready for Rye
11	Blofeld
12	Bolo
13	Eskenformoney
14	Barbados
15	Sunset Glow
16	Lady Eli
17	International Star
18	El Kabeir
19	Calculator
20	I'm a Chatterbox
21	Her Emmynency
22	Divining Rod
23	Noble and a Beauty
24	Saratoga Heater
25	Taylor S
26	Sarah Sis
27	Frosted
28	Vision Perfect
29	Wonder Gal
30	Promise Me Silver
31	Nasa
32	Lovely Maria
33	Sir Alfred
34	Majestic Affair
35	Far Right
36	Lassofthemohicans
37	Take Charge Brandi
38	Ami's Flatter
39	War Story
40	A Lot
41	Paulassilverlining
42	Texas Red
43	West Coast Belle
44	Souper Colossal
45	Prospect Park
46	Classy Class
47	One Lucky Dane
48	Nonna's Boy
49	Dogwood Trail
50	Stanford
51	Luck of the Kitten
52	Bustin It
53	Puca
54	Danessa Deluxe
55	Hillbilly Royalty
56	Consumer Credit
57	Recount
58	Lord Nelson
59	Fantastic Style
60	By the Moon
61	Leap Year Luck
62	R Sassy Lass
63	Bluegrass Singer
64	Angela Renee
65	Leave the Light On
66	Subtle Indian
67	Oceanwave
68	Zandar
69	Catalina Red
70	Papacoolpapacool
71	Abounding Legacy
72	Quality Rocks
73	Conquest Typhoon
74	Danzig Moon
75	Dubai Sky
76	Devine Aida
77	Nun the Less
78	Lady Shipman
79	Fond of Sarah
80	Startup Nation
81	Keen Ice
82	Conquest Eclipse
83	Light the City
84	Poseidon's Way
85	Shook Up
86	She's Complete (IRE)
87	Lawn Ranger
88	Forever Unbridled
89	Island Town
90	Imperia
91	Mr. Jordan
92	Heart's Song
93	El Deal
94	Callback
95	Hard to Port
96	Silver Ride
97	Flashaway
98	Tencendur
99	Cinco Charlie
100	Tizquick

[SecretAgentMan]

MJ, what did you make of Upstarts race in the Fla derby? I don't mean the time, because the tracks been running deep & slow all year.

Do you think Violette had him fully cranked, I don't think he did......

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

MJ, what did you make of Upstarts race in the Fla derby? I don't mean the time, because the tracks been running deep & slow all year.

Do you think Violette had him fully cranked, I don't think he did......

Hard to say. It came up a good race for him, I had his race three back just a little better but essentially what you saw here IMO may be his A race. It's really hard for me to judge if the horse has a forward move left especially at the 10f. Which horse is just lurking right now with a flat line and can jump forward on derby day? I'd like to find that horse. I respect the class rankings and how predictive they typically are on race day but I've also seen that big forward move happen in the derby many times, somebody is going to surge.

[MJC922]

1	Upstart
2	Materiality
3	Condo Commando
4	Carpe Diem
5	Firing Line
6	Dortmund
7	American Pharoah
8	Competitive Edge
9	Birdatthewire
10	Blofeld
11	Barbados
12	Eskenformoney
13	Sunset Glow
14	International Star
15	Lady Eli
16	El Kabeir
17	Lovely Maria
18	Frosted
19	Ready for Rye
20	Calculator
21	Two Weeks Off
22	I'm a Chatterbox
23	Divining Rod
24	Her Emmynency
25	Angela Renee
26	Saratoga Heater
27	Puca
28	Taylor S
29	Stellar Wind
30	Vision Perfect
31	Nasa
32	Far Right
33	Sir Alfred
34	Promise Me Silver
35	Lord Nelson
36	Bolo
37	Ami's Flatter
38	War Story
39	One Lucky Dane
40	A Lot
41	Texas Red
42	Take Charge Brandi
43	Gimme Da Lute
44	Daredevil
45	Stanford
46	Paulassilverlining
47	Souper Colossal
48	Tencendur
49	Leave the Light On
50	Luck of the Kitten
51	Bustin It
52	Danzig Moon
53	Hillbilly Royalty
54	R Sassy Lass
55	Nonna's Boy
56	Danessa Deluxe
57	Recount
58	Lassofthemohicans
59	Consumer Credit
60	Wonder Gal
61	Oceanwave
62	By the Moon
63	Leap Year Luck
64	Prospect Park
65	Subtle Indian
66	Bluegrass Singer
67	Zandar
68	Catalina Red
69	Sarah Sis
70	Fantastic Style
71	Papacoolpapacool
72	Luminance
73	Abounding Legacy
74	Frammento
75	Classy Class
76	Conquest Typhoon
77	Dubai Sky
78	Quality Rocks
79	West Coast Belle
80	El Deal
81	Keen Ice
82	Enchanting Lady
83	Devine Aida
84	Nun the Less
85	Startup Nation
86	Shook Up
87	Lady Shipman
88	Poseidon's Way
89	Conquest Eclipse
90	Fond of Sarah
91	She's Complete (IRE)
92	March
93	Forever Unbridled
94	Lawn Ranger
95	Lost Bus
96	Imperia
97	Flashaway
98	Hard to Port
99	Mr. Jordan
100	Silverpocketsfull

[MJC922]

1	Upstart
2	Materiality
3	Condo Commando
4	Firing Line
5	Carpe Diem
6	Dortmund
7	American Pharoah
8	Competitive Edge
9	Birdatthewire
10	Lady Eli
11	Blofeld
12	Eskenformoney
13	Barbados
14	Divining Rod
15	Lovely Maria
16	International Star
17	El Kabeir
18	Frosted
19	Ready for Rye
20	I'm a Chatterbox
21	Calculator
22	Two Weeks Off
23	Her Emmynency
24	Angela Renee
25	Sir Alfred
26	Saratoga Heater
27	Puca
28	Taylor S
29	Stellar Wind
30	Vision Perfect
31	Nasa
32	Lord Nelson
33	Far Right
34	Bolo
35	Promise Me Silver
36	Texas Red
37	One Lucky Dane
38	Ami's Flatter
39	Sunset Glow
40	War Story
41	A Lot
42	Jacks Escarpment
43	Holy Boss
44	Take Charge Brandi
45	Daredevil
46	Leave the Light On
47	Souper Colossal
48	Gimme Da Lute
49	Stanford
50	Tencendur
51	Paulassilverlining
52	Danzig Moon
53	Luck of the Kitten
54	Bustin It
55	R Sassy Lass
56	Nonna's Boy
57	Lassofthemohicans
58	Nun the Less
59	Danessa Deluxe
60	Consumer Credit
61	Wonder Gal
62	Oceanwave
63	By the Moon
64	Prospect Park
65	Catalina Red
66	Bluegrass Singer
67	Leap Year Luck
68	Wisecracker
69	Zandar
70	Luminance
71	Sarah Sis
72	Papacoolpapacool
73	Conquest Typhoon
74	Frammento
75	Classy Class
76	Hillbilly Royalty
77	Dubai Sky
78	Enchanting Lady
79	El Deal
80	West Coast Belle
81	Quality Rocks
82	Keen Ice
83	Recount
84	Shook Up
85	Abounding Legacy
86	Startup Nation
87	Devine Aida
88	Hard to Port
89	Conquest Eclipse
90	Forever Unbridled
91	Fame and Power
92	Fond of Sarah
93	March
94	She's Complete (IRE)
95	Lady Shipman
96	Lawn Ranger
97	Flashaway
98	Lost Bus
99	Silverpocketsfull
100	Imperia