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Old 03-26-2015, 06:16 PM   #1
sbcaris
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average win distance

A few years ago I looked over all Derby winners for a period of around 16 years with the brisnet past performances and discovered that the majority of Derby winners over that time frame showed a pattern where their sire's AWD was less than their damsire's (broodmare sire's) AWD and the majority had 7.3 or higher for their broodmare sire.

In pool 4 of the ky derby futures here are the only horses that fit the above pattern:

Horse---------Sire AWD-----------Broodmare Sire AWD
Amis Flatter-----6.9--------------------7.6
Dubai Sky-------6.9--------------------7.8
Far From Over--7.2--------------------8.2
Frosted----------7.4--------------------7.6
Madefromlucky-6.9--------------------7.6
Mubtaahij-------8.6--------------------8.8
War Story------6.7--------------------7.6

This does not mean you cannot win the roses if you do not fit the above pattern. All it means is that 10 of the last 16 Derby winners did fit this pattern.
A similar result occurs in the BC Classic with the above pattern.
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Old 03-26-2015, 06:28 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sbcaris
A few years ago I looked over all Derby winners for a period of around 16 years with the brisnet past performances and discovered that the majority of Derby winners over that time frame showed a pattern where their sire's AWD was less than their damsire's (broodmare sire's) AWD and the majority had 7.3 or higher for their broodmare sire.

In pool 4 of the ky derby futures here are the only horses that fit the above pattern:

Horse---------Sire AWD-----------Broodmare Sire AWD
Amis Flatter-----6.9--------------------7.6
Dubai Sky-------6.9--------------------7.8
Far From Over--7.2--------------------8.2
Frosted----------7.4--------------------7.6
Madefromlucky-6.9--------------------7.6
Mubtaahij-------8.6--------------------8.8
War Story------6.7--------------------7.6

This does not mean you cannot win the roses if you do not fit the above pattern. All it means is that 10 of the last 16 Derby winners did fit this pattern.
A similar result occurs in the BC Classic with the above pattern.


Interesting angle sbcaris......if you have time, could you post the past 5 winners?
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Old 03-26-2015, 08:10 PM   #3
sbcaris
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AWD sire and bms

Here are the last 7 derby winners with their sires AWD and BMS AWD in that order:

California Chrome---------6.4----- 6.5
Orb-------------------------7.0----- 7.8
Ill Have Another-----------7.3- ----7.7
Animal Kingdom-----------6.9---- 10.4
Super Saver---------------7.0------ 8.2
Mine That Bird-------------6.6------7.4
Big Brown------------------7.0------7.9
Street Sense---------------7.0------7.1
Barbaro--------------------8.3-------6.4

I had trouble finding Giacomo and Smarty Jones so I stopped with 2006 (Barbaro). One could say that 6 of the last 7 fit this pattern of an increase from the sire to bms and the bms has to be at least 7.3. There are exceptions to every rule but the above does seem to indicate a pattern.
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Old 03-26-2015, 08:20 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sbcaris
A few years ago I looked over all Derby winners for a period of around 16 years with the brisnet past performances and discovered that the majority of Derby winners over that time frame showed a pattern where their sire's AWD was less than their damsire's (broodmare sire's) AWD and the majority had 7.3 or higher for their broodmare sire.

In pool 4 of the ky derby futures here are the only horses that fit the above pattern:

Horse---------Sire AWD-----------Broodmare Sire AWD
Amis Flatter-----6.9--------------------7.6
Dubai Sky-------6.9--------------------7.8
Far From Over--7.2--------------------8.2
Frosted----------7.4--------------------7.6
Madefromlucky-6.9--------------------7.6
Mubtaahij-------8.6--------------------8.8
War Story------6.7--------------------7.6

This does not mean you cannot win the roses if you do not fit the above pattern. All it means is that 10 of the last 16 Derby winners did fit this pattern.
A similar result occurs in the BC Classic with the above pattern.
I like the way you think outside the box. It's pretty hard if not impossible to get good prices and be profitable using the same factors that almost everybody is using, i.e. speed, class, pace, etc.

I want to be sure I understand - did 10 of 16 meet one of the criteria or did 10 of 16 meet both criteria?
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Old 03-26-2015, 08:49 PM   #5
sbcaris
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outside the box

OCF: I can't find my notes that contained this data so I am guessing that 10 of 16 met both criteria. I cannot be sure if it was exactly 10 of 16 but I do remember that the majority of Derby winners fit both criteria which were as follows: 1)the AWD for the BMS was always longer than the Sire and 2) The minimum for the BMS was 7.3.

Maybe someone can search the data and find the missing years 2005, 2004, 2003 etc all the way to 1999 so that we would know exactly what the data represented.

However, 6 of the last 7 met both criteria and I guess that alone could be used as an indicator.

Once again just because 6 of the last 7 met both criteria does not necessarily mean that the next Derby winner will also fit both criteria.
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Old 03-26-2015, 09:00 PM   #6
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Thanks for the info sbcaris, but I have trouble playing the above list of horses for this years derby. The past 6 of 7 derby winners under this angle fell under other angles as well.
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Old 03-26-2015, 09:06 PM   #7
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Not for the exacta

Maybe stick with the winner as the last three place finishers had Sire AWD > Dam Sire's AWD.

Commanding Curve....7.1 - 6.2
Golden Soul..............7.4 - 7.1
Bodemeister..............7.8 - 7.0
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Old 03-26-2015, 09:09 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sbcaris
A few years ago I looked over all Derby winners for a period of around 16 years with the brisnet past performances and discovered that the majority of Derby winners over that time frame showed a pattern where their sire's AWD was less than their damsire's (broodmare sire's) AWD and the majority had 7.3 or higher for their broodmare sire.

In pool 4 of the ky derby futures here are the only horses that fit the above pattern:

Horse---------Sire AWD-----------Broodmare Sire AWD
Amis Flatter-----6.9--------------------7.6
Dubai Sky-------6.9--------------------7.8
Far From Over--7.2--------------------8.2
Frosted----------7.4--------------------7.6
Madefromlucky-6.9--------------------7.6
Mubtaahij-------8.6--------------------8.8
War Story------6.7--------------------7.6

This does not mean you cannot win the roses if you do not fit the above pattern. All it means is that 10 of the last 16 Derby winners did fit this pattern.
A similar result occurs in the BC Classic with the above pattern.

no Dortmund, American Pharaoh, Upstart, or Carpe Diem very intersting... think we are due for another long shot to win the derby this year.. Mubtaahij is intriguing. really want to see how he runs this week. smooth running horse
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Old 03-26-2015, 09:25 PM   #9
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secret agent man

Secret Agent Man: Nowhere in my posts above did I recommend that one should play the above 7 horses in the Ky Derby at this time. Amis Flatter, Dubai Sky, Far From Over, Frosted, Madefromlucky, Mubjaahij, or War Story.

Since 6 of the last 7 Derby winners fit the above criteria, one can conclude that this may be a positive tool. (its just one tool, not the absolute be-all end-all kind of factor.

Furthermore, I would really only be interested in the horses in that list of 7 that race a fast final fraction in a major 9 furlong prep race (SA Derby, Fla Derby, Bluegrass, Wood or Ark Derby or maybe even the La Derby.

If none of the seven ran a fast final fraction, I probably would eliminate them all in the win position of the Derby.

The above study has no reference at all to the second, third or fourth place runners. Just the winners of the last 16 or so Derbies.
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Old 03-26-2015, 10:07 PM   #10
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It's an interesting angle for sure.......I was just comparing the above list to the list of derby winners past 7 years. There seems to be a huge talent level in my eyes between both lists.

Of course, we are due for a long shot, so who knows.......then again, the more stuff we find, the more we scramble our minds & are ready to pull out our hair.

Will be interesting to see the final fraction angle.
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Old 03-26-2015, 10:26 PM   #11
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Dubai Sky is on your list, did he crack the final fractions even tho he doesn't fit in your final 5 of big preps
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Old 03-27-2015, 01:02 AM   #12
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Good stuff.

California Chrome's AWD number were one of the reasons I went against him in the Derby last year.

But, as we all know, he has outran his breeding by a mile.

I'm liking that Far From Over is landing on a lot of Derby "qualifier" lists. I hope he doesn't run a monster in the Wood and kill his Derby odds.
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Old 03-27-2015, 10:36 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
Dubai Sky is on your list, did he crack the final fractions even tho he doesn't fit in your final 5 of big preps
His final 1/8th was 13.28 and final 3/8 in 38.17. The cut off if 12.8 and 37.8. Dubai Sky would be very close but not quite there. That said, Dubai was running relatively quick early fractions which from my experience is not the norm for poly. I am therefore putting some stock in those final fractions.

The fast fractions in a "big 5" prep has a pretty strong impact value and has won the last three Derby races (and I believe 12 of 30 exactas). That said, it has only successfully picked 4 of the last 8 winners. Animal Kingdom, Mine That Bird, Big Brown, and Street Sense did not qualify. Mine That Bird was not even close but that horse did have one other betting angle (family 23b/conduit mare Broom Flower). Animal Kingdom ran a Spiral final 1/8th in 13.4. The horse did have family 1 going for it which has been hot in the Derby. Street Sense ran his final prep on the Keeneland poly. The final 1/8th in that rendition of the Blue Grass was run in a blistering 11.4s (albeit after pedestrian fractions typical of poly). The horse had already won the BC Juvenile on the CD surface in grand fashion and was a prime favorite. Every system needs an exception. I believe Big Brown narrowly missed the fast fractions indicator in the Florida Derby (13.0 versus 12.8 final 1/8th). Big Brown had a couple things going against him such as light prep schedule and the 20 hole but was a well deserved favorite in that seemingly weak class.

Back to Dubai Sky. Can he be the next Animal Kingdom? The horse is from the Raise A Native sire line which was red hot in the Derby prior to the last two years. He carries Buckpasser via Sex Appeal and carries conduit mare Nature in tail female. He also hails from family 23b which has averaged a Derby winner about every five years since Affirmed won in 1978. Should I make an exception to the "Big 5" prep fractions then Dubai Sky is the horse I'll make a decent wager on provided he works okay on the CD surface. I already have a minor wager with him in the previous "All Others" Future wager exacta box.
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Old 03-27-2015, 02:21 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
His final 1/8th was 13.28 and final 3/8 in 38.17. The cut off if 12.8 and 37.8. Dubai Sky would be very close but not quite there. That said, Dubai was running relatively quick early fractions which from my experience is not the norm for poly. I am therefore putting some stock in those final fractions.

The fast fractions in a "big 5" prep has a pretty strong impact value and has won the last three Derby races (and I believe 12 of 30 exactas). That said, it has only successfully picked 4 of the last 8 winners. Animal Kingdom, Mine That Bird, Big Brown, and Street Sense did not qualify. Mine That Bird was not even close but that horse did have one other betting angle (family 23b/conduit mare Broom Flower). Animal Kingdom ran a Spiral final 1/8th in 13.4. The horse did have family 1 going for it which has been hot in the Derby. Street Sense ran his final prep on the Keeneland poly. The final 1/8th in that rendition of the Blue Grass was run in a blistering 11.4s (albeit after pedestrian fractions typical of poly). The horse had already won the BC Juvenile on the CD surface in grand fashion and was a prime favorite. Every system needs an exception. I believe Big Brown narrowly missed the fast fractions indicator in the Florida Derby (13.0 versus 12.8 final 1/8th). Big Brown had a couple things going against him such as light prep schedule and the 20 hole but was a well deserved favorite in that seemingly weak class.

Back to Dubai Sky. Can he be the next Animal Kingdom? The horse is from the Raise A Native sire line which was red hot in the Derby prior to the last two years. He carries Buckpasser via Sex Appeal and carries conduit mare Nature in tail female. He also hails from family 23b which has averaged a Derby winner about every five years since Affirmed won in 1978. Should I make an exception to the "Big 5" prep fractions then Dubai Sky is the horse I'll make a decent wager on provided he works okay on the CD surface. I already have a minor wager with him in the previous "All Others" Future wager exacta box.

Good answer......have a question. It seems there's an average of let's say 6 to 8 horses per year that fall under this angle, that's 8 horses x 7 years= 56 horses.

Using the final 1/8th of a me fraction time is a good eliminator of weaker horses. Since the AWD angle averages quite a few of horses, which is almost half the field, we need to find another angle that will lower the possible KD winner down to 2 or 3.

I use several angles of my own, & no matter what this AWD angle said last year, no one was getting me off of Cali Chrome. Some horses Luke Smarty Jones, Big Brown etc...just leap over certain angles.

This year since the 3 year old crop is pretty even, we won't see a Chrome this year.
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Old 03-27-2015, 03:59 PM   #15
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I normally don't endorse handicapping material but Stanley Caris' Analyzing the Triple Crown is a gem. This was Stanley's final fractions stats from 2012: If handicappers were to wager $2 on each of our 198 qualifiers [in the previous 40 Derby races] the total cost would be $396. Since the total return on our 27 winners comes to $558 the profit realized is $162. Since then, the system also hit on Orb and Chrome. The angle would average around five runners per year.

Sure, you could attempt to sift through these 5 horses (or in your words 6-8). For example, horses with conduit mares in tail female have won about the same number of Derby races during that time. Horses from family 1 or 23b have won 15 Derby races. Certain jockeys show up in the winner's circle more than others. Buckpasser-x has been discussed,... or whatever angle. Super Saver, I'll Have Another, Orb, and Chrome had several of these angles including the fractions. Perhaps those are the horses/years to double down. Time will tell if there is one or two of those multi-angle horses this year. Dubai Sky doesn't fit the "Big 5" prep angle but meets many of the others. We should be able to separate the solid contenders in two weeks.
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