What's happened to the Wood Memorial?

[OCF]

From 2004 to 2014 there were 22 KD starters whose last prep was the Wood. There were no such KD starters in 2011. None of the Wood starters finished in the KD top 3.

That's 22 chances at 30 spots and a big fat bagel.

The bigger money burners:

2014 - Wicked Strong, 2nd betting choice, finished 4th
2013 - Verrazano, 4th betting choice, finished off the board
2012 - Gemologist, 3rd betting choice, finished off the board
2007 - Nobiz Like Shobiz, 4th betting choice, finished off the board
2005 - Bellamy Road, favorite, finished off the board
2004 - Tapit, 3rd betting choice, finished off the board

Several exceptions:

2013 - Normandy Invasion, 5th betting choice, finished 4th (I'm reaching)
2008 - Tale of Ekati, 14th betting choice, finished 4th
2006 - Jazil, 10th betting choice, finished 4th

Is it just a relatively small sample size and one of those *&%$#$^^&!! losing streaks and we should expect reversion to the mean? After all there were four 4th place finishers in ten years.

Or has something fundamentally changed?

[SecretAgentMan]

Yeah, I don't know what going on in NY. I stated this last year, & the streak continues. Is it the cold weather that's keeping horses from training the way they should? Doubt that because trainers before this streak of nothingness were doing okay from the Wood.

Funny Cide & Empire Maker in 2003

Monarchos & Congaree in 2001

Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000

Captain Bodgit in 1997


Good horses, but not much coming out of the Wood......this year we will have a dew good ones, but not great.

[DJofSD]

When did the NYRA allow LASIX?

[reckless]

Originally Posted by DJofSD

When did the NYRA allow LASIX?

September 1995, Belmont Fall meeting.

[DJofSD]

So, the list from OCF are crops from after LASIX was allowed?

[sbcaris]

In my opinion lasix has nothing to do with the results above. I believe it was just a statistical aberration.

[DRIVEWAY]

When was the Florida Derby pushed back? This affects the Wood field in a negative way.

In the past horses ran in the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial.

[OCF]

The last 11 years worth of winning KD trainers included a fair number of NYRA regulars - McGaughey, Motion, Pletcher, Dutrow, Servis - and I'd be surprised if there weren't many more among the 2nd and 3rd place finishers. Maybe the NYRA trainers have started taking their better KD prospects elsewhere for the winter and early spring?

It sure seems like many of the leading NYRA jockeys are also heading elsewhere during that time.

I couldn't help noticing that the start of the losing streak almost coincides with the opening of the renovated Gulfstream in 2006.

I DO NOT intend for this to be an Aqueduct- or NYRA-bashing post, but maybe the losing streak has something to do with a general decline at Aqueduct?

Also - a correction to my first post - it's been 25 Wood/KD starters over the 10 years instead of 22.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by OCF

The last 11 years worth of winning KD trainers included a fair number of NYRA regulars - McGaughey, Motion, Pletcher, Dutrow, Servis - and I'd be surprised if there weren't many more among the 2nd and 3rd place finishers. Maybe the NYRA trainers have started taking their better KD prospects elsewhere for the winter and early spring?

It sure seems like many of the leading NYRA jockeys are also heading elsewhere during that time.

I couldn't help noticing that the start of the losing streak almost coincides with the opening of the renovated Gulfstream in 2006.

I DO NOT intend for this to be an Aqueduct- or NYRA-bashing post, but maybe the losing streak has something to do with a general decline at Aqueduct?

Good observation OCF.......

[Tall One]

Originally Posted by DRIVEWAY

When was the Florida Derby pushed back? This affects the Wood field in a negative way.

In the past horses ran in the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial.

I think this has more to do with it than the "better" jocks wintering in Miami, which they've done for years. If those guys are wanted up north, they'll go. But with the Ortiz brothers, Franco, Cornelio Velasquez, Alvarado, Cruz, the apprentice Rodriguez, Chucky Lopez, and now Carmouche in there, AQU Winter is pretty solid. IMO.

[salty]

Don't forget that in 2009 I Want Revenge was supposed to be the Derby favorite but was then scratched the day of. The very next year 2010 Ekendereya crushed the wood then was supposed to be the derby favorite and also scratched from the derby.

Those are just instances that i specifically remember since i have been betting horses.

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by salty

Don't forget that in 2009 I Want Revenge was supposed to be the Derby favorite but was then scratched the day of. The very next year 2010 Ekendereya crushed the wood then was supposed to be the derby favorite and also scratched from the derby.

Those are just instances that i specifically remember since i have been betting horses.

Also, Toby's Corner won the Wood and had to scratch. He wouldn't have been a favorite but was looking like a "wise guy" type pick before he had to withdraw/scratch.

[sbcaris]

Since 2004 I counted 25 Ky Derby starters that last raced in the Wood Memorial. Using my final fraction indicator as a qualifying angle and considering all other starters as non contenders I came up with the following results:

The Only years in which a true contender from the Wood raced in the Derby were as follows: I defined a true contender as one that qualified on my final fraction indicator:


2014-Wicked Strong
2013-Normandy Invasion, Verazzano and Vyjack
2012-Alpha
2011-None
2010-None
2009-West Side Bernie
2008-None
2007-None
2006-Jazil
2005-Bellamy Road
2004-Master David and Tapit

In summary- there were only 7 years in which a true contender ran in the Derby and the total number of true contenders was 10 (Not all 25 starters were true contenders).

So, instead of looking a the last 10 years one only need look at the last 7 years as years when a true contender raced in the Derby from the Wood Memorial. The last 10 contenders failed to hit the board. Once again, I think it is just a statistical aberration.

[DJofSD]

It could very well be a statistical quirk.

But not knowing how to do statistical investigations, I wonder, what are the odds of such an event occurring?

[sbcaris]

Error in Math----The above data constitutes an 11 year period, NOT a 10 year period as I stated.
Its the old failure to count properly trick- 2004 thru 2014 is 11 years not 10.