The class of 2015

[turninforhome10]

While the East Coast is embracing for one of the worst cold snaps in recent history, things are beginning to heat up for the Class of 2015 and up for grabs this weekend are two 50 point races. Gulfstream will host the FOY and the Fairgrounds will have the Risen Star. Both races will be run at 1 1\16th miles on dirt.
Predicted Weather for Hallendale- Slightly overcast, Highs near 75, wind NW gusts to 15, slight chance of late afternoon rain amounts under .05-- 20%
As of this writing FLA is under freeze warnings and temps in 30's. Be worth watching Friday's card to see how dirt and turf will reveal any subtleties from the cold.
Gulfstream Park
11th Race. (C10) Post 5:30PM STAKES
The 73rd Running of The Besilu Fountain of Youth (Grade II)
Purse $400,000 Guaranteed 1 1/16 Miles
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
1 JUAN AND BINA (L) Delgado, G Castellano, J 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/juan+and+bina
Pedigree screams precocity and that has been the story so far. Liked slow miles at Calder and still seems to be a run off type. Being on rail must be on or near lead or risk being pinned on rail. Castellano will have to be on his best to get this home without tiring to fade late. Bullet work coming in may signal the thoughts on pace.
2 BLUEGRASS SINGER (L) Vitali, M Lopez, P 118
http://www.pedigreequery.com/bluegrass+singer
Bargain priced 2yo sale purchase has paid big dividends to owners. His juvenile speed is looking like it is backing up. Pretty sure Paco will send as the horse seems one dimensional. Breathing fire at the top of the stretch might be the undoing as the speed on his outside will be waiting to pounce much as last.

3 FRAMMENTO (L) Zito, N Velazquez, J 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/frammento
Qualifier in Mahmoud female line hailng from the Blue Hen mare Silver Fog who produced Silver Spoon-first filly win SA Derby. Love the fact that this is the 4th foal from a Golden Missile mare.Take a look at Golden Missile's female lineage http://www.pedigreequery.com/golden+missile. Click on the 5th dam Sail Cloth and notice the inbreeding.Golden Missile, I will say it again has the potential to be a great broodmare sire. Having looked at catalog pages for some 20 years, I have become a bit of 3rd or 4th foal from a mare kind of guy. That being said, he looks like focus is the concern. Dawns shades and bullet and willing to forgive last. Bigger things down the road but should be more honest today. Bluegrass Stakes?

4 GORGEOUS BIRD (L) Wilkes, I Rosario, J 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/gorgeous+bird.
From the top Whitney family that brought you Birdstone. Wilkes has done a superb job with this guy. Blew out foes in N1x and goes to the Bigs for a shot. Owns a win at CD and Rosario sticks. Figures to get favorable pace but would need an effort that might not be prepped for. Top 4 finish and should get alot of race.
5 ITSAKNOCKOUT (L) Pletcher, T Saez, L 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/itsaknockout
Perfect 4x5 inbreeding to Buckpasser through females.X trail through Sire to Lassie Dear-family of AP Indy Summer Squall etc and through Dam through 5th dam Pass the Basket- family of Basket Weave. Love this family 3-i for professional racing ability ie Classic races and production of quality breeding animals. His allowance was hard to judge as it looked like a sprint race with searing fractions and he took the lead and drew of to win well. Can he rate the perfect trip outside. Think Saez might have the connection to ask this guy for a big one and get the points to provide flexibility going forward. The future is very bright for this guy.

6 FROSTED (L) McLaughlin, K Ortiz, Jr., I 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/frosted3
A pedigree of great breeding names such as Belmont, the Mabees of Ca, and now Darley have owned these lines. Stamina a plenty through 3rd dam by Roberto out of Prince John mare. Family of Fleet Lady and Midshipman. Draws a more favorable post will look to stay in contention while trying save a stretch run. Question his grit when the stretch run starts as others look to have something saved from last. Not trusting the Remsen as race going forward and see a regression today.

7 UPSTART (L) Violette, Jr., R Ortiz, J 122
http://www.pedigreequery.com/upstart15
Pedigree is actually quite cool in it's history. Traces back to the great Tesio bred Tofanella-ancestress of Ribot. Inbred this great mare through 5th dam. Love Flatter's female line and Touch Gold should have a bright future as a BS, but I wonder when the Housebuster part of Upstart kicks in and his speed backs off. Will go to post as a logical favorite and possible single in many P3 and P4's and rightly so. First sophomore effort crushed foes in Prep for today. Primary win candidate but will be tested today.
8 DANNY BOY (L) Romans, D Lanerie, C 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/danny+boy13
Pedigree screams turf and sprint. Family of Housebuster.Romans is decent with this angle but this looks a little tough on task. No recent form and a running style that looks to pick up pieces late. Could be a logical prep for something later as connections look might have Derby fever. 45 and change for the half could put him in exotics.

Blinkers On: Frammento; Frosted
Key Races Video
Holy Bull
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...y-bull-s-gr-ii
Gorgeous Bird
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...tionalClaiming
Itsaknockout
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...t-gp-on-1-4-15

How I use pedigrees when handicapping is more of a financial thing vs a aptitude idea. When looking at PP's for 3yo's, the first I look at the Sale price, the breeder and the owner. I like those things to match in a dollars and cents model. Does the sire and dam's production record justify the price at sale? Are the owners established at sales and not fresh meat for the big ticket setup. Does the trainers ROI and the quality of the pedigree agree. You don't see Pletcher with New Mexico breds and you have to question when a low number outfit gets a cheap Bernardini.
Once the pedigree makes sense in a financial sense, then I can look at aptitude but more as tool to predict what could be in unproven horses, not what should be in proven horses.

Hope this helps and will let folks chew on this while I regroup to look at the Risen Star next post. Trying to get a decent weather model for LA for Sat. Enjoy and and any discussion is welcome.

[sbcaris]

Turninforhome: You stated above that Itsaknockout has an X trail thru the sire by way of Lassie Dear.

It is impossible for Itsaknockout to receive any of the X chromosome that Lassie Dear carried because Lassie Dear is found on the sire's side of the pedigree, the side that transmits a Y chromosome to Itsaknockout.

However, it is possible that Itsaknockout received some of Buckpasser's X chromosome along the bottom portion of the pedigree (Buckpasser is the 4th damsire of Itsaknockout.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Turninforhome: You stated above that Itsaknockout has an X trail thru the sire by way of Lassie Dear.

It is impossible for Itsaknockout to receive any of the X chromosome that Lassie Dear carried because Lassie Dear is found on the sire's side of the pedigree, the side that transmits a Y chromosome to Itsaknockout.

However, it is possible that Itsaknockout received some of Buckpasser's X chromosome along the bottom portion of the pedigree (Buckpasser is the 4th damsire of Itsaknockout.

In this case it is a closed pedigree meaning Buckpasser is Present in both X positions on the top and bottom. I feel most definitely he would get in from bottom.Going forward he could be an exciting sire later with his fillies. Here is a very good article on X-factor as I don't want to lead anyone astray. http://www.sport-horse-breeder.com/large-heart.html

With reference to the double of Buckpasser mares on top and bottom I give this http://www.sport-horse-breeder.com/u...pedigrees.html

[Secondbest]

Turninforhome10 I enjoy your posts. I hope you keep them up.My knowledge of breeding is very limited any suggestions on books ,videos etc, on learning more about it.

[turninforhome10]

11th Race. (C10)Post 5:24PM STAKES
The 43rd Running of
RISEN STAR STAKES (Grade II)
Purse $400,000 Guaranteed 1 1/16 Miles
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
1 ST. JOE BAY(S) (B) Miller, P Geroux, F 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/st+joe+bay
Big stretch to the big stretch at FG. Comp to tough in Cali and comes without a jock in tow. Pace factor only.
2 TIZNOW R J (B) R12 Asmussen, S Albarado, R 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/tiznow+r+j
Is a Princequillo qualifier. Nice relations between Broken Vow and Zilzal. Horse looks to be able to get distance but post is major concern with major speed on the outside looking to pocket on rail.
3 BLUFF (B) R39 J L Jones Clark, K 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/bluff23
The bottom is pretty speed influenced even with the El Prado.
Should get great trip and class is only question. Feel this guy might need some seasoning
4 J S BACH (B) Pletcher, T Bejarano, R 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/j+s+bach
3rd generation Dizney bloodlines going back to Key to the Mint (New x-factor) http://www.pedigreequery.com/key+to+the+mint. Love homebreds. Would look for Tale of the Cat and Pulpit to be a future cross of note. Pletcher has to spot the 3yo's and elects for the FG stretch with new pilot. Pilot inexperience with track is major concern unless a trip out west might be in the future. That might be stretch. Should get a good trip and will move forward for next.
5 IMPERIA (B) McLaughlin, K Smith, M 120
http://www.pedigreequery.com/imperia19
Danced well as Freshman with the BC JVT being only out of money try. Mother was some kind of racemare winning UAE Oaks for same connections.Showed a fondness for CD dirt after scoring in grassy start.This could be any kind of horse for savy trainer. Smith will probably pull early and look for a place to relax early and make a later run.
6 WAR STORY (B) R22 Amoss, T Desormeaux, K 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/war+story3
Outrunning his sale price. Ran big in his last and was prepped at OP for this which sends mixed signals. Kent D has been riding decent as of late but afraid that going further will require a more rating style.
7 HERO OF HUMOR (B) R43 Dorochenko, G Murgia, A 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/hero+of+humor
Dorochenko shocked the world a few years back on this strip. Not this type. Blue collar pedigree and 46 or better ½ mile will doom for also ran.
8 KEEN ICE (B) Romans, D Graham, J 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/keen+ice
See previous discussion regarding family of Chic Shirine
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...2&postcount=28.
We add millionaire Veranzanno to the family since then. Moves north after not showing at GP last. Gets Graham and looks for pace back up. Will be one to watch as stamina outweighs speed as we move forward. Think grass and 1 ½ miles. Might be worth exotic use due to late pace numbers.
9 BIG BIG EASY (B) E30 Asmussen, S Eramia, R 116
http://www.pedigreequery.com/big+big+easy
Did well at CD for N2l almost wiring field. That was one turn. Two turns at Delta was not encouraging but post and duel would be a lot to overcome. Class and connections are iffy even with Steve. The deep end of the pool.
10 INTERNATIONAL STAR (B) Maker, M Mena, M 120
http://www.pedigreequery.com/international+star5
EP Taylor foundation line and Family of good Juvenile Halory Hunter. Has shown precocity now will have to show professionalism. This guy will have to overcome post and running style so if you want to beat him look outside LeComte prep.
How wild would it be to have NY breds win the two 50 pts preps to the Derby.
I like the to step up, and the to be the barometer of the pace toll.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Turninforhome10 I enjoy your posts. I hope you keep them up.My knowledge of breeding is very limited any suggestions on books ,videos etc, on learning more about it.

I would start with this and just start looking at links
http://www.tbheritage.com/Bibliography/Links.html
http://www.pedigreegoddess.com/pedigrees.htm
I always liked Anne and thought she did a great job at 3 Chimneys.
And thanks will try to keep it up. Love the triple crown trail. Optimism is a good thing.

[Secondbest]

Thanks

[letswastemoney]

Going back far in a horse's pedigree to prove what they can do today seems questionable.

Zippy Chippy's 4th dam was Broodmare of the Year in 1969.

[sbcaris]

Letswastemoney: You said going back in a pedigree seems questionable and you used the example of Zippy Chippy' s fourth dam, a broodmare of the year. And Zippy Chippy was an awefully slow runner.

While it is true that many horses that can't run a lick trace to great broodmare sires and even strong females way back; it is also true that horses that have demonstrated high quality as runners often trace to conduit mares that were of very high quality. In fact, these types do way better than expected.

I did a Kentucky Derby study of this a few years ago and came up with very solid statistics when combining strong conduit mares in tail female with a fast final fraction in a big 5 prep race. These horses comprised 21 Derby winners in the last 34 years (58% winners). Since these types make up ONLY 13% of the starters, the impact value for this indicator is an extraordinary 4.30
Horses qualifying on the above two characteristics have won the roses 4 times more often than statistical expectation. The two criteria are quite simple: The horse on the Derby trail must carry one of my special 39 conduit mares in tail female and achieve a final 3/8 of a mile of a 9 furlong prep race in 37 4/5 or less

If you are interested in finding out more about this angle contact me at sbcaris@comcast.net

[Spiderman]

Terrific presentation of race and pedigree analysis. You probably knew, the reason for the one work War Story had at OP, a bullet 1/44, :47b, was because he was entered in Southwest Stakes that was cancelled. Southwest is now scheduled for Sunday, Feb 22

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by Spiderman

Terrific presentation of race and pedigree analysis. You probably knew, the reason for the one work War Story had at OP, a bullet 1/44, :47b, was because he was entered in Southwest Stakes that was cancelled. Southwest is now scheduled for Sunday, Feb 22

Thanks, makes sense. I did not know. That is why I created this thread for good feedback. Thanks bunches.
Kirk

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Going back far in a horse's pedigree to prove what they can do today seems questionable.

Zippy Chippy's 4th dam was Broodmare of the Year in 1969.

So let's say going back that far is questionable. With California Chrome, without going back you miss the Rasmussen factor inbreeding to Numbered Account. I felt that was a big part of his success. http://www.pedigreequery.com/california+chrome
As far what they can do today, sometimes as a trainer, the horse may run to what they have in their bloodlines vs what they have in physical prowess. In the case of Chrome, the potent double of Numbered Account enhanced the quality of the pedigree and gave him exceptional heart and talent.
Any talk of pedigrees will spark debate. I have discussed this with many breeders and talking pedigrees is very much like talking about religion and politics, lots of opinions and passion but very little proof of what works other than the success of the horse itself. The best horse that I ever bred was a Filly named Lordslegacy http://www.pedigreequery.com/lordslegacy . She is the leading money winner for a stallion that I worked with in IA. http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.p...l%20Horses&cf=
If you look at the mating the family of the mare traced back to an old EP Taylor bloodline. When looking at the female line of the stallion, he had that double of Chop Chop, leading sire 7 times for EP Taylor. So for lack of a better explanation, I put the Taylor bloodlines back together. And what we got was a very tough and versatile IA bred filly that would run short or long and stayed sound for 30 starts. So in this case had I not went back into the pedigree, I would not have suggested the mating. The pedigree is mere suggestion of what the horse might be. Without looking, you may never know untill you miss a 40 mutual, or in my case playing the Derby future books with I'll Have Another and California Chrome.

[turninforhome10]

Looking at the Davona Dale only the was not sold at auction. That seems odd for fillies.In contrast the Rachel Alexandra only has one filly in the that was purchased at sale. A showdown of ideologies.
Looking for a homebred 3yo filly with a shot at the Oaks. Have to look at FG.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

Looking at the Davona Dale only the was not sold at auction. That seems odd for fillies.In contrast the Rachel Alexandra only has one filly in the that was purchased at sale. A showdown of ideologies.
Looking for a homebred 3yo filly with a shot at the Oaks. Have to look at FG.

If you are looking for a Rasmussen factor inbreeding (inbreeding on x-trail to superior females), look to the the Gray family and the Larry Jones charge I'm a Chatterbox-http://www.pedigreequery.com/im+a+chatterbox
Looking at the ancestors in pink, Lady Winbourne
Half-sister to French Horse of the Year Allez France.
Dam of 15 foals, 13 to race, all winners. 7 stakes winners, including G1 winner/sire Al Mamoon, G1 winner/producer La Gueriere, G3 winner/sire Lost Soldier, etc... This mare made Wimbourne Farm. Could this filly be a freak for Mr. Jones. Might be a case that the quality of the inbreeding might override the aptitude of the pedigree.Much as the case of California Chrome.http://www.pedigreequery.com/california+chrome

On a side note;
I met Larry Jones while working as an Asst in IA. My trainer and he were good friends from the old Dueling Ground days. Larry is one of the most conscientious horseman I have ever worked around. Got a few days hanging out with him back in 2000 before he got rollin. Really enjoyed watching him work.

[turninforhome10]

I am on a bit of roll about pedigrees, so let me put my idea in a nutshell.
Looking at the tail female gives me an idea of what the market has thought of the mares production.
This gives me 3 types of lines
Guarded-Big money types that are in the best hands and are rarely sold. Juddmonte, Phipps, Janey..etc
Big Money Sale-Mare has hot race record, family has nice page and owners are not breeders and breeders breed to sell.Dogwood, Starlight, Midwest..etc
Market horses-Horses that are bred on common lines, have bounced from breeder to breeder, catalog page is bald. This group is what compromises most of today's horses.

Lines that are producers have been judged so by some of the best minds in the industry. These lines will carry the best of the best and economically speaking will enjoy the advantages of being blue blood. But sometimes the blue collar mare might pick up something special from a blue collar stallion that captures lightning in a bottle.
There is an old English tale of the breeder that finally had his first great homebred race mare. He paid the best money for the best stallions for many years and not one horse was ever close to their famous mother. Back then the mares were paraded down Stallion Ave to rendezvous with their 2 minute man. As the handler was walking the older mare down to the hot young stallion, she froze and became fixated on a shaggy older stallion that had proven better at making cart horses than races. She refused to move. After this went on for an hour the handler walked the mare home. This went on for 2 days until the frustrated breeder gave in to the lust of his mare and allowed the old shaggy stallion to cover his precious mare. The foal ended up being the only horse to go on and become an English Derby winner. Sometimes love conquers all. The story is referenced in Hewitts Book The Great Breeders and their methods as I cannot remember the name of the horse.