Final Odds Changes

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

While that is true for whales I do not find that it has to be true for all the big bettors. Some of the worst players I have ever known bet many hundreds of dollars per race.

a matter of fact, some of the best bettors i have ever met in my life were very small ones.

[judd]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

a matter of fact, some of the best bettors i have ever met in my life were very small ones.

yea but whers the thrill of victory

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Big bettors become big bettors because they're great at betting, handicapping and knowing lots about math, percentages and the odds. They know that a certain sized bet into a certain sized pool will make an 8-1 shot go down to 5-1. Why then, would they make such a large wager if they were indeed making that wager BEFORE the gate actually opens? They wouldnt. This is damning evidence that these large bets are coming in after the gates open, large players who know what they are doing aren't going to take 5-1 on an 8-1 shot by betting all their money into the smaller win pool.

Maybe it's just me, but I can't follow the logic of this post. Plus, I don't know why you assume the action is coming from one big bettor rather than a hundred small and medium size bettors. I guess you might think that the people that bet in the last minute have the same handicapping opinion as the people betting in the previous 20 minutes, but I see no reason to assume that. Indeed, even before simulcasting it seemed to me that the people that bet in the final minute have, as a group, a different decision making methodology than the rest of the crowd, and thus often preferred a different horse.

[Fastracehorse]

............to me is that cheating goes on in this game everyday at every racetrack in North America.

This thread is noting instances at something that is visually available.

Some of you aren't going to like what I am saying but I watch alot of favorites burnt everyday.

It is a very strong part of the game and should be handicapped - if you really like an odds-on you have to worry that it may not win - and not because it's not good enough.

I see favorites paraded like their monsters to add comfort to the punter - just to be shot down in flames.

When you watch a horse race, and they are going fast and they are strung out, and the best horse is out of it early, it really appears as if he's not good enough, even when he is; I realize there are situations where the fave is vulnerable or a poor choice - there are lots of those too.

So my point is, this thread is arguing the validity of the poster's rants - it's almost like it is distracting us from the fact that cheating is just a 'matter of fact' in this game - no, not every race - not even most races - but often the races with the most likely favorite are dangerous to the favorite player.

That means you have to be careful when you make your selections - and if you thinks it's too good to be true - it may not be - but the results may say different.

If you think I have definitive proof of this - I don't - it's all anecdotal.

And yes, money can be made at this game, the cheating aspect is like an angle, like blinkers off.

fffastt

[Show Me the Wire]

It is a common practice. I have seen it with my own eyes. The large bettor tells the pari-mutuel clerk the amount of the bet and has the clerk delay pushing the button until the horses are sent on their way. if the horse breaks well the wager is finalized, if not the bettor instructs the clerk to hit the cancel button.

This method works where the pari-mutuel has the option to cancel a bet within 20 seconds of the start of the race. It is very easy to have a clerk assist you in this manner. All you have to do is tip him sufficiently.