Final Odds Changes

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

if you like after the bell betting, you should take a look at today's 4th race at finger lakes, the 5 horse, cat's playmate leaves the gate at 4-1, unfortunately dennis carr falls off the horse, after the race you have your final odds of 12-1. of course the true odds after the poor rider falls off should 99 infinities-1, but unfortunately there are still guys like myself that are dead ducks who wind up being stuck with their bets.

i will update this board of further circumstances where there are withdrawells of money from parimutual wagering pools that seem to get swept under the rug.

Lambo...who were the horses that declined in price during the run of the race...that made this Dennis Carr horse move from 4-1 to 12-1?

Did the odds of the race winner drop suspiciously during the race?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Lambo...who were the horses that declined in price during the run of the race...that made this Dennis Carr horse move from 4-1 to 12-1?

Did the odds of the race winner drop suspiciously during the race?

i didn't see them because i bet on the horse that lost his rider and i was sick as it was.

[DeanT]

4 horse is the one: 6-1 to 12-1. Post is up on HANA blog. Thanks for the heads up Lambo.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by DeanT

4 horse is the one: 6-1 to 12-1. Post is up on HANA blog. Thanks for the heads up Lambo.

i am not kidding you i saw 4-1.

you believe me on this one, this game ain't gonna last to much longer with this stuff going on. it is wearing me down already, and i don't think there are that many warriors that are as tough as me!

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i am not kidding you i saw 4-1.

you believe me on this one, this game ain't gonna last to much longer with this stuff going on. it is wearing me down already, and i don't think there are that many warriors that are as tough as me!

I am not saying you did not. Even if you didnt and he was only 6-1; 6-1 to 12-1 and another horse going from 2-1 to even, represents an obvious problem. 4-1, or 6-1, no matter to me, nor it should not matter to anyone. We got problems, big time. When someone caps a 35% chance on the deuce, hammers it, then has a negative expectation bet, your game in the win pools is nothing but folly.

http://blog.horseplayersassociation....l-puzzles.html

[senortout]

Sooooooooooooo much bs. The odds on every other horse went up exponentially!........sometimes nothing is wrong. How many times have you tried to beat the favorite and decided you could not? This would be the proper thing to do then...either bet the favorite or pass the race. This is a hard lesson to learn though. Some people say go exotics to try to make something of the race. Your choice.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by senortout

Sooooooooooooo much bs. The odds on every other horse went up exponentially!........sometimes nothing is wrong. How many times have you tried to beat the favorite and decided you could not? This would be the proper thing to do then...either bet the favorite or pass the race. This is a hard lesson to learn though. Some people say go exotics to try to make something of the race. Your choice.

i'll be sure to take your advice next time.

[senortout]

Here are my wagers this day...I haven't skipped any races, just took em the way they came up. Slept in this am and bet the first two at Kempton, UK on my ipad before I even got outta bed. Did other things today, came back to racing when able, its my sanity release or something.

Note, 5 of these six horses won. I played place and show as you can see.

senortout

[SchagFactorToWin]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If a horse starts the race at 2-1 odds, and its odds drop to 6-5 by the time the race is over...that's a drastic decline, but it would go unnoticed in your study.

I see. But like I said, that wasn't the goal of my study. I was looking specifically for the rate and which horses stay within certain odds ranges, 2:1 and under being one of them. What you're looking for would probably require a larger sample, though.

[SchagFactorToWin]

Originally Posted by BlueShoe

A very high percentage of the time it is the runner that breaks very alertly and establishes a clear unchallenged early lead. A guy able to past post by only as little as 10 seconds after the break has a huge advantage, that is plenty of time to size up the break and enter a bet, provided the front runner is a legit contender, and not just a pop and stop longshot. Turn this around; how often do we see a sharp late odds drop on a horse that breaks slowly, gets shuffled back, and is pinned down along the rail in the early going? This happens all the time to short priced contenders, but somehow these runners almost never take the late price plunge.

One reason I started this study was to eliminate the use of anecdotal evidence. I know everyone thinks they know, but, especially in gambling, it is too easy to remember events that support one's theory and forget those that disprove it. Unless you are keeping track of when these past postings occur, it is my contention that it is idle speculation.

However, when it is applied to parimutual gambling, I think the more people who use such speculation to determine theirbets, the better (for me)!

[SchagFactorToWin]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

if you like after the bell betting, you should take a look at today's 4th race at finger lakes, the 5 horse, cat's playmate leaves the gate at 4-1, unfortunately dennis carr falls off the horse, after the race you have your final odds of 12-1. of course the true odds after the poor rider falls off should 99 infinities-1, but unfortunately there are still guys like myself that are dead ducks who wind up being stuck with their bets.

i will update this board of further circumstances where there are withdrawells of money from parimutual wagering pools that seem to get swept under the rug.

As long as you also update us when it doesn't occur.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by SchagFactorToWin

As long as you also update us when it doesn't occur.

i stated before that it does not occur with NYRA, they know it goes on and if an outlet comes in with after the bell they are going to pull the signal from the place that it occurs. why do you think the handle in saratoga only went down 4%? its because they maintain i higher standard than the rest.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i stated before that it does not occur with NYRA, they know it goes on and if an outlet comes in with after the bell they are going to pull the signal from the place that it occurs.

And you know this how?

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by DeanT

I am not saying you did not. Even if you didnt and he was only 6-1; 6-1 to 12-1 and another horse going from 2-1 to even, represents an obvious problem. 4-1, or 6-1, no matter to me, nor it should not matter to anyone. We got problems, big time. When someone caps a 35% chance on the deuce, hammers it, then has a negative expectation bet, your game in the win pools is nothing but folly.

http://blog.horseplayersassociation....l-puzzles.html

Quite frankly, if you ignore the odds and just look at the amount bet on each horse minute-by-minute I don't see an obvious problem. The horse moving from 6-1 to 12-1 had his pool size double (approx.) while the win pool tripled.

[jamey1977]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

Quite frankly, if you ignore the odds and just look at the amount bet on each horse minute-by-minute I don't see an obvious problem. The horse moving from 6-1 to 12-1 had his pool size double (approx.) while the win pool tripled.

Frickin Cheating Scum-Bags- Island Sunset - 3 to 1 off. At Fairplex Race 4 - Sep.22, 2010. Takes the lead and goes wire to wire. And of course after the race is over he is 2 to 1 . What the hell is going on ? . If the horse got off to a bad start. His final odds would have been 3 to 1 holding. This crap happens again and again. Who are the cheating scumbags who are doing this ?. This doesn't even happen half and half. 9 times out of 11. The winnning horse is way low after, the race. Only 2 times, they get taken but they do that just not to call attention to themselves. Stop these thieves. I should have gotten 8 dollars back. I am sick of this crap.