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01-29-2023, 11:47 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: pen
Posts: 4,584
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does it still cost $100 to get in?
maybe he did it for free tickets?
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01-30-2023, 12:20 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,974
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paulbenny
Prior to the Gulfstream card yesterday, I summarily dismissed all his runners in a writeup I prepared on a public site for two reasons:
1. His horses did look overrated on the numbers, especially in the Pegasus
2. The morning line appeared to corroborate this and if they were to take the money suggested, it was a waste of money.
Regardless of that, it was apparent as the card moved on that in general, when his barn faces opposition from all parts of the country on his home ground, he gets buried. He certainly did yesterday.
I know occasionally he comes up with a win like the PA Derby or Charles Town Classic type races. I give you that.
He is not exposed on anything and I raised this about three years ago -- he is one of those trainers that just makes me question what he is doing. Really. How come the West Point types don't use him? How often does someone give him a pricey runner? If he were as good as things appear to be with 30K runners claimed running their eyeballs out then where are the big guns with the money?
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You’ve raised a number characteristics that could be said of any number of people during their tenures as race horse trainers. That’s because many of them understand and accept that the game from their perspective is cyclical. Yes, there’s certainly a lot of maintenance involved, but they’re not training or caring for machines.
I personally get a kick out of reading comments like those above. The general supposition is always that just because a horse is entered in a race that the intentions are to try to win it. This couldn’t be further from reality. Of course, many handicappers at all levels of proficiency automatically make that imprudent assumption. That’s because they don’t understand all of the idiosyncrasies that concern the animals themselves during their racing careers. Sure, after the fact they’ll make an excuse by saying things like the best horse on paper (or data) “bounced” when it loses and was perhaps up the track.
I’ve been at this game for decades now and once I came to the realization of what drives the whole sport my entire outlook changed. Horses can be entered in a race for many reasons. Other than just trying to help fill a card, the one thing that really stands out is conditioning. This factor readily comes into play when a trainer feels that his horse needs to be raced into top shape for a planned future event. The problem from a handicapping perspective (and future reference) is recognizing how and when these racing workouts occur. There’s an array of methods that are used to accomplish this. Many of which actually disguise these intentions and make the horse look worse for its upcoming event. The key is to be able to recognize the techniques that specific trainers use and of course how successful they are in properly spotting their horses next event.
From all of my past experiences when contemplating this factor, I believe the ultimate example was when and how trainer John Shirreffs prepared Giacomo for its race in the KY Derby. (If you ever have the opportunity, take a look at how this animal was prepped for this big event). Aside from this you also happened to mention the name Gasper Moschera who BTW was a great trainer of claiming type horses. One of the obscure explanations as to why he was so successful was because he was also an excellent handicapper and an expert at spotting his animals properly.
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01-30-2023, 09:40 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 189
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The last comments made sense.
I will simplify this. He is suspicious to me. Leave it at that. I was correct on Navarro. I am not on here very much and perhaps people were talking about him before he got his due.
We all have our opinions. All the other stuff, the noise, well, that is why this is engagement.
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01-30-2023, 02:15 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Saffie is 22% lifetime and was at 21% last year. His overall results are, in my opinion, suspicious. I tend to agree with Paulbenny that these hot trainers often fail to reproduce the same results when they ship. Although I do think that Saffie had some success with his NYRA horses last year. I can't find individual stats on that.
Just to compare, I consider Bill Mott to be a legitimate horseman. If you look over his win percentages going all the way back to and starting from 2008 - in the last 15 years, his win percentage is 16% and it's never been higher than 18%. That's good but not unusual, especially considering the fact that Mott gets very good stock to train.
Saffie, on the other hand, has been over 20% for the last 7 years with an average of over 22%. I guess you could say that his win percentage is boosted by the ability to drop horses in claiming price.
That being said, I don't believe that Saffie has a terrible record of drug violations. He had a horse win a $100,000 stakes race at Monmouth dq'd after a class 4 violation which cost him $1,000 fine. But I'm not sure of his overall record.
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01-30-2023, 04:00 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
Saffie is 22% lifetime and was at 21% last year. His overall results are, in my opinion, suspicious. I tend to agree with Paulbenny that these hot trainers often fail to reproduce the same results when they ship. Although I do think that Saffie had some success with his NYRA horses last year. I can't find individual stats on that.
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Ran some numbers on Saffie Joseph shippers over the past 5 years into the NY and KY circuits, plus FG, CNL, and PRX:
218 starters, 34 winners (16%), 90 ITM (41%), -15% ROI
Overall at those tracks (horses "based" there added in):
353 starters, 55 winners (16%), 148 ITM (42%), -19% ROI
All NYRA runners only - 5 years:
176 starters, 31 winners (18%), 75 ITM (43%), -23% ROI
Last year at NYRA only:
63 starters, 11 winners (17%), 27 ITM (43%), -13% ROI
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
——————
”Past performances are no guarantee of future results.” - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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01-30-2023, 04:48 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 189
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I am going through Equineline, Equibase, and building out an excel spreadsheet. I am even separating Calder from GPW from GPX knowing the names are both Calder in the first two and the third is his home base. The Mott comment nails it. Again, I know he had that one violation. My thing is that people who file taxes sometimes make mistakes and never get caught, deliberately do things and never get caught, or they do. The radar screen is not on him perhaps. Fine, again, this is something that is a gut thing for me given what I have seen over decades of watching races dating back to Oscar Barrera.
Trend data is all I can go by and it just seems too good to be true.
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01-31-2023, 08:28 AM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
Ran some numbers on Saffie Joseph shippers over the past 5 years into the NY and KY circuits, plus FG, CNL, and PRX:
218 starters, 34 winners (16%), 90 ITM (41%), -15% ROI
Overall at those tracks (horses "based" there added in):
353 starters, 55 winners (16%), 148 ITM (42%), -19% ROI
All NYRA runners only - 5 years:
176 starters, 31 winners (18%), 75 ITM (43%), -23% ROI
Last year at NYRA only:
63 starters, 11 winners (17%), 27 ITM (43%), -13% ROI
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Thanks for posting, good stats. I remember when he first started shippnig to NYRA he seemed to be struggling but eventually his horses started winning. Although these win percentages are still about 5% below his Florida percentages.
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02-01-2023, 05:16 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,974
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
Ran some numbers on Saffie Joseph shippers over the past 5 years into the NY and KY circuits, plus FG, CNL, and PRX:
218 starters, 34 winners (16%), 90 ITM (41%), -15% ROI
Overall at those tracks (horses "based" there added in):
353 starters, 55 winners (16%), 148 ITM (42%), -19% ROI
All NYRA runners only - 5 years:
176 starters, 31 winners (18%), 75 ITM (43%), -23% ROI
Last year at NYRA only:
63 starters, 11 winners (17%), 27 ITM (43%), -13% ROI
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Thanks for taking the time to post those stats. They provide a very obvious clarification. There could be any number of valid reasons why this trainer does better at his home track.
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02-01-2023, 05:42 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paulbenny
I am going through Equineline, Equibase, and building out an excel spreadsheet. I am even separating Calder from GPW from GPX knowing the names are both Calder in the first two and the third is his home base. The Mott comment nails it. Again, I know he had that one violation. My thing is that people who file taxes sometimes make mistakes and never get caught, deliberately do things and never get caught, or they do. The radar screen is not on him perhaps. Fine, again, this is something that is a gut thing for me given what I have seen over decades of watching races dating back to Oscar Barrera.
Trend data is all I can go by and it just seems too good to be true.
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You're acting like this is something revolutionary and it's not. There's nothing about Joseph that separates him from another 200 trainers in the past 20 years. You acting like you're building a case or whatever just sounds like you stepped out of the 1960s and just discovered trainers who can move horses up. Where were you the last 30 or 40 years?
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02-01-2023, 06:33 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,043
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Quote:
Originally Posted by proximity
does it still cost $100 to get in?
maybe he did it for free tickets?
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Lol
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02-01-2023, 09:02 PM
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#26
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
There's nothing about Joseph that separates him from another 200 trainers in the past 20 years
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One of the more telling things to me in terms of the normalcy of move-up barns are the starter allowance, allowance, and higher purse claiming races at some of the higher purse meets.
Many of the interesting contenders are first or 2nd off-the-claim out of cheaper races.
Sometimes a few in the same race.
Barns not only improving off the claim, but claiming For the plan of stepping up in class. Then taking money and performing.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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02-02-2023, 07:52 AM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 54
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A former racing secretary at Kentucky tracks, now deceased, once told me when I was getting in the game as an owner, a claiming trainers ability to dissect a condition book at different tracts was paramount to their success in the claiming game. With more starter allowance, conditioned claiming and restricted races being written, that's likely true now more than ever.
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02-02-2023, 01:40 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 189
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I appreciate the expertise provided here especially on the stats because I have only gotten through 2019.
When I have a horse, if I ever do, I will pay Bill Mott to train him not Saffie Joseph with a likely higher day rate. That helps me quite a bit. Clearly the consensus is Saffie is a very good trainer, but he is not for me.
My thinking is if Lunsford was using Saffie or had used one of those 200 others (it would be great to see the list), it might move me in that direction, vs Iavarone who used to use Richard Dutrow Jr. and also had that Baltas situation at one point. I follow those who have a lot of credibility on things like this.
I was not well informed to think anything other than that because 200 trainers are like him in the last whatever number of years that they are all over the place. Thanks!
For those who own horses that have a lot of money and spend 500K, turn them over to Saffie and those other 200 who won a disproportionate percentage of races relative to field size because that is what it is all about because of their superior training skills.
As to the Saratoga rip, I worked in the mutuels department and was not doing it to use that as a prop. I also helped build out ADWs. I just did it to learn things that you would see inside operations and I now substantially more than the average person wagering. I did it to learn like I am here.
I learned a lot. Good luck with Saffie Joseph as he moves forward accumulating massive amounts of purse winnings!
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02-02-2023, 04:27 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 313
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You have an obsession with $500,000 horses.
You know why Saffie doesn't get them.... because his connections don't buy them, and the people that do buy them already have their own, very good trainers that they can send them to.
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02-02-2023, 05:11 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 189
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I used a nice round number. lets drop it to 200,000, or even 150,000. I think there is more to the story here. You said they already have their own good trainers. How does one qualify to be a good trainer and get these horses Dale Baird (RIP) was not getting them. Why wasn't he getting them? I mean, I know he was in West Virginia and was low level in the claiming business years ago.
How about Bob Baffert? He is getting them but he is not a good trainer apparently?? I am unclear on what a good trainer is but I was told Bill Mott is. Someone made that statement.
There is a judgement made but the numbers clearly demonstrate that Saffie Joseph is a good trainer according to the consensus here. I just suggested that if I had a horse I would rather pay Bill Mott more money to train him. I know I would sleep at night.
It seems to me a guy like Dale Baird was not in even close to major racing and Saffie Joseph is yet he is not getting them.
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