Moo Grass Stakes - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

boys at tosconova · 07-10-2020, 01:34 AM

looks like a deep field of horses with the possibility of some nice exotic payouts.

boys at tosconova · 07-10-2020, 02:04 AM

1- raced well enough in his last two to be part of this. has speed and the ability to be in position. i don't really like him though, but i would be lying if i said he he has no chance to hit the board.

2-that was a nice ark derby..sit, sit, sit and close. next out he left early and had mixed results. ..back to sitting up close and closing. if he does that he has the chance to hit the board like the ark.

3-acid test moving up. he crushed finnick. pretty sure he'll be in position up front, and his price will be shorter than ideal. seems like a horse many will use. why do i feel this is tap it to win part II...who raced like a tired horse in the belmoist

4-doesn't really run bad races, and should be long in here. any kind of pace and he can be coming late. not my fav closer, but can't discount 100%

5-luv the name...horse looks like he has a chance in here as well. would not surprise me to see him trip out up close at decent odds. he whizzed by dean martini who came back to win the ohio derby.

6-horse is gonna need to improve quite a bit

7-filly looks fast enough and has tactical speed. looks like the favorite. must be used in the exotics, but would not surprise me if she lost in here. finishing OTB,well, that's another story, but it's somewhat possible

8-basin is getting better, but i'm just not that much of a fan, and i really wonder how much better he's gotten outside of the speed figure. don't know where this horse is going to be as well. could easily be wide. i won't yell at you if you use him.

boys at tosconova · 07-10-2020, 02:33 AM

9- the matt win was a pretty decent race. showed a different dimension by leaving, was caught wide the entire race and did finish 4th. should be pretty long in here as well. i doubt he argues up front in here, and the race previous to that he only lost by 1.5L to dr post coming off the pace. horse can hit the board imo in the right scenario @ 20-1

10-that was a nice SA race. those two baffert horse aren't in here. i have no idea where the horse is going to be in here, but he fits. he's long for a futures wager as well.

11-that was a bad race vs. man in the can last out. but his two race previous to that were pretty good. albeit against maidens. should be overlooked entirely, and has things working against him, but cannot completely dismiss in the right set up if they go fast early

12-how much is post 12 gonna bother him, he's a closer anyway. has some nice races and always seems to be coming late. don't know what kind of odds you're gonna get but it should be decent

13- here's a wildcard...mott from turf to dirt....baaaammm..long odds to boot. hate the post and don't know where the horse is gonna be but he looks like he fits imo.

boys at tosconova · 07-10-2020, 03:03 AM

the big question is if art collect and swiss diver bottom the field and make it a boat race.

both look solid but both come with some risks. art still has to prove some class + distance and swiss has never run with the boyz.

groupie doll · 07-11-2020, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

13- here's a wildcard...mott from turf to dirt....baaaammm..long odds to boot. hate the post and don't know where the horse is gonna be but he looks like he fits imo.

I've been seeing some talk about this horse. Might be worth a flyer.

look like the logical horses, but they will be bet. If the

is at or near the ML that might be my top pick. I also like the

to finish itm.

boys at tosconova · 07-11-2020, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by groupie doll

I've been seeing some talk about this horse. Might be worth a flyer.

look like the logical horses, but they will be bet. If the

is at or near the ML that might be my top pick. I also like the

to finish itm.

it's hard charting a course that puts the 13 in finishing 1/2nd. i want to work him into a few tickets of mine, but it seems like a stretch

the 4, 11, 12 should be far back early, and might only get one call....and it seems the 13 will prolly be back there as well....

i like a couple of cheaper horses that look slow i'm going to use with the 3/7.....man in the can and attachment rate. i wanna throw finnick underneath as well..i just don't really feel the 1 and 8 at all...i also feel rushie might have to work hard as well.

jimmyb · 07-11-2020, 03:37 PM

based on Keeneland workouts.

Robert Fischer · 07-11-2020, 05:13 PM

Nice analysis guys.

This is such a tough race.

I've got

Basin and

Swiss Skydiver leading into the stretch and trying to win this race in proactive fashion.

I like Basin's price better, but I don't love either contestant.

Art Collector

Man in the Can
and

Rushie are the 'top stalkers' to take attempt to tackle the lead or place runners.

Enforceable is the top deep closer.

value plays
Win

ex

w/

MONEY · 07-11-2020, 05:28 PM

I'm not betting, but it looks like the #3 & #7 will go around the track as the leaders and it will end that way.
I need to root against the favorites, so I'll say #10 & #4 might catch them.

GMB@BP · 07-11-2020, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MONEY

I'm not betting, but it looks like the #3 & #7 will go around the track as the leaders and it will end that way.
I need to root against the favorites, so I'll say #10 & #4 might catch them.

cant call it better than that.

jimmyb · 07-11-2020, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MONEY

I'm not betting, but it looks like the #3 & #7 will go around the track as the leaders and it will end that way.
I need to root against the favorites, so I'll say #10 & #4 might catch them.

jay68802 · 07-11-2020, 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by groupie doll

I've been seeing some talk about this horse. Might be worth a flyer.

look like the logical horses, but they will be bet. If the

is at or near the ML that might be my top pick. I also like the

to finish itm.

BINGO!

groupie doll · 07-12-2020, 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802

BINGO!

Yeah, once every few millennia I hit one, esp when it involves the two favorites.
I'm curious to see Rushie again, esp if they keep him around 8-8.5F.

classhandicapper · 07-12-2020, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by groupie doll

Yeah, once every few millennia I hit one, esp when it involves the two favorites.
I'm curious to see Rushie again, esp if they keep him around 8-8.5F.

Not that he would have threatened the top two, but he got an awkward start and made a nice wide move before throwing in the towel. Without that start I think he would have had better position, an easier trip, and finished better. IMO he ran a little better than it looks.

groupie doll · 07-12-2020, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Not that he would have threatened the top two, but he got an awkward start and made a nice wide move before throwing in the towel. Without that start I think he would have had better position, an easier trip, and finished better. IMO he ran a little better than it looks.

Yeah, there was no way he was winning, but he ran reasonably well yesterday. He lost a little ground on both turns, but he also seemed to move a little too early on the turn. On watching the replay it's a little amazing that he held third since he appeared done coming into the stretch. I may be off base, but the way he runs makes me think that if they cut back 0.5-1 furlong with him he'd do better.