Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-14-2018, 02:41 PM   #121
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
Only value is finding an exotics bomb to hit the ex or tri.
Tenfold may be the one for Asmussen
I always find comments like this a little weird.

Exotic combinations with a huge favorite on top and longshots underneath are, in my experience, almost always overbet. Why not just pass a race like this and wait until a situation where you dislike the favorite and can beat him or her at a big price in the exotics?
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-14-2018, 02:44 PM   #122
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
I'm curious to see the draw but I have to envision Good Magic getting a similar trip to last year's winner...

It's not like Justify has a huge margin for error over GM. An overconfident ride could be all it takes to close the 2 length gap from the Derby.

I also think there is big improvement coming soon for GM.... hopefully the narrative that the Derby was some kind of new lifetime best will continue to be told. He's still got room to move off that race.
what would an over confident ride look like (consist of)?
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-14-2018, 02:46 PM   #123
Mc990
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 293
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
what would an over confident ride look like (consist of)?
Wide.
Mc990 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-14-2018, 03:10 PM   #124
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
Wide.
well that would mean two others are going 23 and 46...I guess it could happen.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-14-2018, 03:19 PM   #125
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,253
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
I always find comments like this a little weird.

Exotic combinations with a huge favorite on top and longshots underneath are, in my experience, almost always overbet. Why not just pass a race like this and wait until a situation where you dislike the favorite and can beat him or her at a big price in the exotics?
One reason why I won't pass on the race....I'm gonna be there at Pim and there's no way in hell I'm just gonna sit and watch LOLOL
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-14-2018, 03:48 PM   #126
clicknow
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
Gotta see if track comes up wet first. Is it supposed to be wet?


If track comes up wet, I have 4 horses I think can run ITM with Justify:
Pony Up, Good Magic, Tenfold & Quip. Might even try a superfecta with these.


If track is fast/dry, then I'm looking at an entirely different scenario and will have to re-do my capping.
clicknow is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-14-2018, 04:40 PM   #127
MadVindication
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 445
Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
Justify: Baffert/Smith

Good Magic: Brown/J. Ortiz

Bravazo: Lukas/Contreras?
Saez is riding Bravazo and Contreras SC. Unfortunately. I read some comments from Lukas that sounds like he's disappointed at that too and it's about appeasing owners. Can't find where I read it.
MadVindication is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-14-2018, 05:54 PM   #128
Spalding No!
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
well that would mean two others are going 23 and 46...I guess it could happen.
Actually, Mike Smith likes to play "cat-and-mouse" and has already done so with Justify. In the Santa Anita Derby he tried to float Bolt D'Oro out wide, which failed and Justify ended up struggling to switch leads, twisting a shoe, and drifting in late.

In races that are basically distilled down to 2 horses, as the Preakness figures to be (i.e., Justify and Good Magic), Smith has shown he'll try some questionable tactics, presumably because he's trying to outsmart other riders. While he's been successful in some of those races, I don't know if the wins were due to his tactics or in spite of them.

He shifted position with Arrogate when stalking California Chrome in the 2016 BC Classic. Espinoza of course was completely distracted by it and rode even sillier than Smith that day.

He's also questionable when he's on the overwhelming favorite. His rides on Abel Tasman, Midnight Bisou, and Unique Bella have backfired at times.

Who know's what stunt he'll try to pull at Pimlico. I'm sure we'll know its coming when he starts looking back under his arm for Good Magic around the 3/8s pole...
Spalding No! is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-14-2018, 06:39 PM   #129
delsully
Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 313
Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow View Post
Gotta see if track comes up wet first. Is it supposed to be wet?


If track comes up wet, I have 4 horses I think can run ITM with Justify:
Pony Up, Good Magic, Tenfold & Quip. Might even try a superfecta with these.


If track is fast/dry, then I'm looking at an entirely different scenario and will have to re-do my capping.
From what I’ve seen it’s supposed to rain all week and into the weekend. Also, Iread Pony Up is out.
delsully is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-14-2018, 08:10 PM   #130
papillon
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 282
Giant Rabbit

Quote:
Originally Posted by Afleet View Post
looking at this type of odds in two weeks?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wcs8TPykpFg
I've watched this probably 2 dozen times in my life, if not more, and never noticed the gigantic 2 story inflatable white rabbit on the back stretch before now.

FWIW Sporting Chance refused to break 3x from the gate in his most recent work.

Bolt is going to the Met Mile, which really makes sense for a horse that hasn't been able to beat his own crop since Sept.
papillon is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-14-2018, 08:54 PM   #131
SecretAgentMan
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
In the last 13 years only 4 Kentucky Derby winners were able to win the Preakness Stakes.... They were American Pharoah (2014), California Chrome (2014), I'll Have Another (2012) and Big Brown (2008)
SecretAgentMan is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-14-2018, 09:01 PM   #132
SecretAgentMan
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
The derby 2nd place runner has only won the Preakness twice in the last 24 year.....it was Exaggerator in 2016 and Prairie Bayou in 1993
SecretAgentMan is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-14-2018, 09:29 PM   #133
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,446
Ahhhh. The CURSE of the Derby Winner!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-14-2018, 10:08 PM   #134
SecretAgentMan
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Ahhhh. The CURSE of the Derby Winner!



Lol......Justify breaks a 136 year Apollo curse, an 0-51 Scat Daddy curse, & he might lose on the derby winner curse? Lol!
SecretAgentMan is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-14-2018, 10:49 PM   #135
f2tornado
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
Over the past few decades one of the better bets in sports was to take the Derby winner in the Preakness then bet against in the Belmont. Didn’t work with Pharoah but you got more than your money back on Travers day. Chad Brown isn’t sticking Good Magic in the race for place purse money so his pony must have came out of the Derby in nice shape. This coupled with at least a minor issues with Justify. He still might need Justify to break a step slow from the outside coupled with one of Smith’s goofy chalk rides. I’ll use both on top but GM will primarily be the insurance play. Orb and Always Dreaming are fresh in my mind but Justify appears better than those.
f2tornado is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:37 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.