Pen and Paper Systems

[mikesal57]

Hello Guys...

Would like to know if ther are any pen and paper players out and what systems do u use?
Would also know if anyone can use the beyers E1/E2/LP numbers with success..and on enhanced PDF PP's there is a 1c & 2C adjustments to pace too..
I'm sure that it wont affect the odds...so let it out!...LOL

thxs ..

[mikesal57]

I guess everyone has a secret winning formula...

[nobeyerspls]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Hello Guys...

Would like to know if ther are any pen and paper players out and what systems do u use?
Would also know if anyone can use the beyers E1/E2/LP numbers with success..and on enhanced PDF PP's there is a 1c & 2C adjustments to pace too..
I'm sure that it wont affect the odds...so let it out!...LOL

thxs ..

I use a pen and the print version of the Racing Form. I don't look at jockeys, weight, or beyer speed figures. By 7:30 AM I have finished handicapping three or four venues with an average of 8 to 12 solid plays. I bet a little to win a lot, building horizontal and vertical exotic plays off of the key races. Straight bets are usually $5 to win and $2 to place and only on horses 7/2 or higher.

I do not have an Internet or telephone account so all wagering is done at the track or simulcast facilty. Also I have avoided getting a cell phone as I'm still working on how to get rid of the telephone in the house. Just a content dinosaur with modest success.

[John]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

I guess everyone has a secret winning formula...

Defferent strokes for defferent folks...

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

I guess everyone has a secret winning formula...

Well, look at it this way... you're communicating with people via a computer. So what are the chances you're gonna find a bunch of people sitting behind a computer who think a pen and paper system is the best way to handicap?

[Tom Barrister]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Hello Guys...

Would like to know if ther are any pen and paper players out and what systems do u use?
Would also know if anyone can use the beyers E1/E2/LP numbers with success..and on enhanced PDF PP's there is a 1c & 2C adjustments to pace too..
I'm sure that it wont affect the odds...so let it out!...LOL

thxs ..

You aren't likely to find any commercially available pencil and paper systems that beat a 0.90 ROI, although the system-sellers will tell you differently. Most struggle to beat 0.85, which you can manage by betting tote favorites with a couple of simple filters.

The Beyers and pace numbers are beaten to death.

Anybody who has a successful system isn't likely to tell others about it.

As far as it affecting the odds, it only takes one blabbermouth to ruin it. Since it's hard to tell who is and who isn't a blabbermouth, most people with a winning method are generally tight-lipped about it.

Originally Posted by ryesteve

Well, look at it this way... you're communicating with people via a computer. So what are the chances you're gonna find a bunch of people sitting behind a computer who think a pen and paper system is the best way to handicap?

Logic will get you nowhere

[njcurveball]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Hello Guys...

Would like to know if ther are any pen and paper players out and what systems do u use?
..

The abacus and slide rule were great tools in their days. So was a well to get water and an out house to do your business.

In 2008, there is advanced software that makes the old "pen and paper shuffle" as desirable as walking on the NJ turnpike to get from one place to another.

A while ago I noticed a guy at simulcasting with a calculator, the $5 variety. He was marking up the form and I decided to check his numbers. Hey, perhaps I would learn something, right? Turns out he was computing Earnings Per Start for EVERY horse. Try it sometime and see how fast you can do just one card of racing. I would estimate 15 to 20 minutes. Then do 20 tracks. Most would say NO!

And that is only one factor. A computer can slice and dice all of todays horses, go through a database for relevant trends, spot plays, bias, weak/strong favorites and spot the calculator guy 10 minutes and still do a whole day faster than he can do one card.

Some people like Excel, which is like riding a bike compared to walking. Using a state of the art program with a state of the art database is what the competition has and that is what this game is all about. Beating the competition.

I will give you one good "pen and paper" system for Harness that I used "in its day". Bet any horse switching from the trainer driving in a race or qualifier to a leading driver. With todays "catch drivers' there probably wont be too many like this, but it use to be very profitable.

[Dick Schmidt]

The tedium has driven most people to some sort of computer, but I know a couple of people who still do TPR numbers by hand. That's how they were originally designed. Of course, that original design only lasted the few hours it took me to write a simple computer program for a pocket computer, but it still works just fine and you can win just as much as someone using a fancy computer.


Dick

oh this...
It's a Single Cylinder - Single Stroke, Internal Combustion Engine
with a Free Floating Piston...

[mountainman]

As an intuitive handicapper who, other than two simple excel spreadsheets, mostly eschews technology, I've often wondered how a drf devotee such as myself would fare by blotting out the beyer numbers. They are so often so overbet, and can trick a comprehensive handicapper into overlooking important form patterns. Players reliant on software or less ubiquitous brisnet ratings are probably shielded from the short odds this results in.

[lamboguy]

hey mark have you noticed that we are not getting anymore of the tommy amoss and bernie flint horse in at the mountain lately since churchill has opened. they are not allowing horses that run in other places to come back to churchill. iknow your still got a few meryl sherer horses, and eric reed and jamie sanders, but with out amoss and flint its just not the same. i liked following the horses that were in the same race as these tuff guys, they have done very well next time outs.

[raybo]

There are 2 very good reasons why computers are advantageous: 1. The previously mentioned time saving that computers offer. 2. Computers don't make mistakes, only their operators, unlike a pen and paper approach which produces mathematical errors and writing errors.

Concerning Beyers numbers, or Brisnet, TSN, etc., all these numbers are subject to error and must be verified. After verification and subsequent adjustments, they become somewhat unique to that handicapper/number maker and therefore don't become overbet.

[dav4463]

Originally Posted by ryesteve

Well, look at it this way... you're communicating with people via a computer. So what are the chances you're gonna find a bunch of people sitting behind a computer who think a pen and paper system is the best way to handicap?

I'm one of them! I look at my computer as a necessary evil. I use it for email, the Daily Racing Form, race results, news, a couple of forums, and to order stuff.

I am strictly a pen and paper handicapper.


I also play Strat-o-matic board games. While everyone seems to be playing it on the computer.....I'm still rolling the dice and keeping stats on a scoresheet! It's the same with handicapping for me.

I know the computer can figure and go through mountains of data in a second. My brain can look at a racing form and recognize things that a computer cannot recognize. It's not all facts, figures, and trends. Sometimes it's patterns, other times it's seeing a horse that is eerily similar to a 19-1 shot that won last week, etc, etc. I trust my own brain more than I do a computer.

Sometimes it is better to keep it simple.

Basically, I'm computer illiterate and sitting in front of a computer bores me.

[Suppositionist]

I guess I qualify as a pen and paper handicapper, if by paper you mean the Racing Form. That’s handicapping to me. It’s me, my knowledge of handicapping and the racing form, against the world. Handicapping is the game and money is the score card.

In a nut shell without getting too detailed, I try to only bet races with nine horses or more to get the fairest odds. I can usually eliminate the pretenders fairly easily. I look at a race card like a golf course. A good golf course will test every club in your bag, a good race card will test every handicapping tool in your head. I don’t shy away from any particular type of race as I believe in becoming proficient at handicapping them all. A lot of handicapping insights will apply to most all types of horses while some groups have specific insights that apply only to that group. I use Beyers figures as a range for both what a horse is capable of and what will be likely necessary, Beyer-wise, for any horse in the race to win or run strong today. I'll usually give a little extra for potential improvement in the range

I’m a big fan of Henry Kuck’s book “The Winners File”. I found it by accident at the local library and have read it every winter since I found it. The most important insights I have taken from that book and incorporated into my own handicapping methods are; read the racing form from the bottom up, decipher the horses “story” and how the horse is coming up to today’s race and decipher which horse is ready for a top effort and then decide by the likely possible ways the race will unfold, whose top efforts will be likely result in which horse(s) giving good accountings of themselves.

I’m a trifecta and win-place player. I believe that by the way a race shapes up, if you have the winner, you should be able to tell who is likely to be there with him. The good thing about trifectas is that you only need to be right one or two times a day. I believe in betting good horses but giving yourself a chance to get lucky, so I lean towards the longer priced contenders with a decent chance as my key horse. I do however believe in taking what they are giving you and will not shy away from a high probability favorite. I do try to limit my use of favorites to the rate they win at 30-35 %, so 3-4 on a ten race card, on top, but I’ll raise that limit one or two if the day shapes up as chalk day. When I’m handicapping well, I usually average two to three trifectas a day. I’ve had some bombers but every bomber I ever had I never thought would pay what it ended up paying. I believe on average they give you two to three chances to make decent money on any given card. The trick is to find the races where it is likely to happen. Certain races are more likely to produce bigger payouts that others. Learn what they are at your track. At mine they are big fields, maiden races and turf races, strange as it may seems, stakes on the main produce some good payoffs also.

My general betting approach is to pick one key horse with either the best chance of winning or one that is a very good overlay and box it with the three other likely contenders . Oddly, I cash more tris when my key horse runs third than when they are winning. I also bet the key horse to win and place as a saver for the bankroll. It keeps me in the game some days but I’m strongly considering changing to only betting win and increasing it by the amount I bet for place. I’m still thinking about it though because I have missed some trifectas by not just boxing all four of my contenders but I tried doing that for a while and for some reason it made me change my handicapping and I was less successful. I think it caused me to get mentally lazy and only look for horses that might get in the money and that made the difference between getting close and getting the race dialed in by looking for the winner also, so I’m still trying to decide if changing my style for win and place might have some similar effect.

I don’t know what else to say really, the rest is just sound fundamental handicapping. Speed is form but how they run fast is important also. Is this the horses best distance, can he handle it anyway if not? Class will tell. I don’t think weight matters much. Good jockeys can be indications of horses who are well meant. Switch to jocks who have had success with a horse are also good indicators. Knowing trainer habits can be useful. All other things being equal, the edge goes to the speed on the inside even when breaking from the eight and nine hole. Inside posts are big factors with maidens. There are no losing streaks, there are only bad handicapping/bad money management streaks. It may be hard to believe but I actually do better on poly than I do on traditional dirt. I don’t believe that the phenomenon known as bounce exists. There are always other reasons for a seemingly sub-par performance.

Some people have good days and bad days, I strive for good days and bad moments. I don’t know if you would call all this a system but its my basic approach to the game. Every race is different and you have to go with the flow. I can’t stress the reading of the horses “story”, enough. Some days that’s all I really need and I can tell how a race will go. Get good at that and at least sixty percent of the battle will have been won.

S

[A. Pineda]

I prefer to print the DRF (since it comes without those annoying analyst comments) and search for a maiden race with a vulnerable favorite. After watching the replays I adjust the Beyers and make only vertical wagers. Sometimes I have as many as 3 plays a week. End of system.