Quote:
|
Originally Posted by cj
I didn't say he wouldn't win, but did you bet him at 7 to 10? I know I didn't. Pretty sure I said about 50% chance he wins.
I'm not knocking at all, just don't get your point, particularly in bold giant font.
|
No, of course I did not bet this year's Belmont (at least with some serious money)..
I am not looking for this kind of races to bet. Even the exacta, which I had narrowed down did not offer much of a value!
Besides the bettability of the race though, I was surprised to realize, that so many of us, were trying to defeat the obvious, looking for extreme scenarios that could had allowed for a major upset..
It is fanny that top public handicappers, like Beyer and Serling were picking against AP, despite the convincing evidence that he is the best horse of his generation and also has the potential to become the best horse of the last several decades.. After all he had beaten all of his rivals by several lengths each one in several different races!
As a horse racing fanatic, I certainly did not like the selections of the two Belmont's handicappers, who projected the wrong image to the wide public and the casual fans who are always looking for the next racing hero.
When a public handicapper, contradicts the obvious choice, which also happens to be the reason for today's racing pandaisia, I not only blame him for bad handicapping but I am also questioning his motifs.
Are they try to be too smart in the wrong place?
I am not the type of a handicapper who stays in the obvious, finding himself consistently aligned with the public.
Quite the opposite.
My money is usually in the nose of some kind of an obscure pick, that seems to contradict several classical handicapping doctrines and some times I happen to be correct, something that usually results to a significant score.. I think this is one of the best ways to approach the game and I have been doing it during all of my life and I will probably continue to do so forever. Still, there are cases, like today's Belmont, where
I simply cannot go against the obvious especially when every handicapping angle I can think about, indicates that the favourite is going to win the race.
Today, we have watched the new super star of racing, who also has the potential to reach even higher levels of achievements (assuming that he will not be retired soon), duplicating the success of his stable mate Bayern in the BCC last year.. As a degen horse bettor, I will stay tuned, root enthusiastically for AP and not trying to discover reasons to beat him, I have enough favorites to go against in my day to day routine, what is really needed is the
NEXT SUPER STAR OF RACING NAMED AMERICAN PHAROAH
