arkansas derbY: it's all about 1/9

[boys at tosconova]

forget about any long shots winning. lets just focus on who completes the number possibly 10L back.

doesn't take much imagination to see/predict the same kind of bs racing like we saw last weekend.

dunno if lucky and conquest can get better...certainly can't forecast it..seems like they'll just plod along and hope to finish 2/3rd..nothing screams "i like this horse" or suggests a big race is in store. at least conquest raced wide and had an excuse last out. lucky was blahhhh

i liked far right after the jckpot race,..but if you didn't have him the last two, jumping on him now might be fatal. looks slow

dunno which horses can keep up..dunno if any will try hard..maybe borel w/ blinks ..but he looks slow as well..but 2/3rd is within reach w/ a top effort...

...plz somebody try

1. The Truth Or Else (118) Borel/McPeek 15-1

2. Mr. Z (118) Vazquez/Lukas 10-1

3. Bridget's Big Luvy (122) A. Cruz/Englehart 20-1

4. Madefromlucky (118) Velazquez/Pletcher 6-1

5. Bold Conquest (118) Santana/Asmussen 20-1

6. American Pharoah (122) Espinoza/Baffert 1-2

7. Far Right (122) Smith/Moquett 9-2

8. Win the Space (118) Desormeaux/Papaprodromou 30-1

[nads1420]

how many lengths does he have to win by to be the derby favorite?

[SecretAgentMan]

AP wins by 7 lengths.........

[f2tornado]

There is some decent early and late speed this race. Not gonna look as easy for AP this time, or so I think. I still think he wins but not by 7. His favoritism in the Derby might ultimately be determined by how he runs the race. If he plods another half mile in 49 and change then some handicappers might back off of him.

[Valuist]

As for being a Derby favorite, do we even know if he's the best 3YO in Baffert's barn? From what I've seen of Dortmund, IMO he has shown me more.

[boys at tosconova]

how does win the space get in this race? can't visualize him out closing lucky, conquest and far right. it would be a huge race if he somehow left the gate and held on to finish in the $$. seems like that would be his only prayer. prolly won't get the best odds either, because of the abbreviated field

maybe bridget's luvy will be the beneficiary sitting behind AP. whether he's good enough remains to be seen. dunno if the horse can rate..so the horse might be gunning. because of this, the horse might become crispy fried chix. but the horse should try.

what is borel going to do? they might be hoping/reaching w/ the blinks..and if he does decide to leave a little strongly, that could work adversely with the horse and have him run up the track..my guess is that he'll take his chances like conquest, far right and lucky and just make their attempt at a close and gather points...think about it..it's too smart not to do this. all 4 only have to run down luvy and or mr. z to get 2nd place

as for mr z..can he be as bad as last? don;t see how you can use him here outside of a speed position/hope play. odds should be better than 3-1....dicey

[BlueChip@DRF]

Borel isn't going to do anything. He's already got the rail.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Borel isn't going to do anything. He's already got the rail.

[boys at tosconova]

win the space has the 2nd best ragozin speed number in the race. and is 2x trending up.

lol.......does anybody still follow rags seriously, or do you just use them to justify long shot plays?

[Some_One]

Do you think Mr Z will let him get off with a 49 sec half again? AP's last two Bris E1 figures were 82 and 87, what happens where he needs to run 100 something in the Derby early?

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Some_One

Do you think Mr Z will let him get off with a 49 sec half again? AP's last two Bris E1 figures were 82 and 87, what happens where he needs to run 100 something in the Derby early?

mr z isn't going to hurt his entry mate....but AP may try and help him, though... when you're 10L better than everybody it won't matter.

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

when you're 10L better than everybody it won't matter

Bayern looks 10l better then everyone else when he gets his way early, what happens when he doesn't?

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Some_One

Bayern looks 10l better then everyone else when he gets his way early, what happens when he doesn't?

when wade boggs eats chicken on tuesday's he bats 500

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

when wade boggs eats chicken on tuesday's he bats 500

But last season Jack Elliot led his team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August.

[horses4courses]

Let's face it.
AP should bolt home tomorrow in Arkansas.
Where will that leave us figuring out his future?

One of two scenarios will likely set up for the Derby.

(1) He has run two easy preps after a long layoff,
and is now sitting nicely on the race of a lifetime, or

(2) He already peaked last year and, as his speed figures suggest,
he's just not fast enough to seriously contend for the roses.

If I were to guess, I'd have to say he is Baffert's "B string".