Still alive in TS Showdown

[nads1420]

yeah let us know who u pick so i can root for you

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Heisenberg

Thanks guys, I have until race time to get my pick in on TS. I'm thinking the workout figures and draw will weigh heavy into the final decision. Either way it will be the biggest sweat of my life!

Congratulations on 19 show bets in a row, that's awesome! I think you have the right idea. Pick out a few contenders you really like, then wait for the draw and see how horses are working out this week. You don't have to worry about looking for a price, so at least that helps, and I would concentrate on the top few betting choices. Go get that million!

[SecretAgentMan]

I guess that stopped giving out the $100,000 free bet on a KD horse to wager a win bet on after the guy bet 100k to win on Super Saver, lol.......he lowered the odds down a lot on him too by placing that bet.

[sandpit]

I echo many others here who say congrats and don't change what you're doing now considering how well it's worked this far.

As puzzling as the Derby can be (huge field, 1 1/4-miles, etc.), your basic principles should still apply. To me, the one advantage we have as handicappers is that we get to see most all of the horses train every day for a week or two leading up to the race, as well as get tons of tidbits of info that you don't normally get.

I'm a big believer that a horse who trains exceptional at CD will run a big race, and it's helped me cash some nice tickets. Additionally, I'm also a believer in the entire Derby karma thing. For example, in 2006 I liked Brother Derek, but he and his trainer both had a bunch of issues all week long, so I jumped ship to Barbaro, who was training spectacularly. Watch for the little signs of a horse and his connections having the best possible week.

The show pick is interesting to me, because when I start formulating my Derby bet, it begins with which horse I think has the best possible chance of finishing in the top three, but not necessarily win. I usually end up keying him in all three spots in the tri. Not perfect by any means, but gives me a good starting point to cut through the confusion of a 20-horse field.

I'm pulling for you to bring home the seven-figure prize

[davew]

congrats. this is the 2nd year I started but stopped after losing 2 in the first 7.

So much to consider - taking entire pool or sharing with many. I would probably go with one of BAFFERTS, but would wait until see post parade and warm-ups.

[boys at tosconova]

AP or bust.

[Tall One]

And somebody told me recently you couldn't make any money show betting..

Good stuff, OP..

[Skanoochies]

Beware of post positions also. I`m not sure of in the money horses, but as far as winners are concerned, posts 1 to 4 have been terrible over the years. GOOD LUCK MAN!!

P.S. Maybe someone here has stats on itm horses from inside posts.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Skanoochies

Beware of post positions also. I`m not sure of in the money horses, but as far as winners are concerned, posts 1 to 4 have been terrible over the years. GOOD LUCK MAN!!

P.S. Maybe someone here has stats on itm horses from inside posts.

Post positions, for some horses, is extremely important. Gate ability, preferred running style/early velocities, versus those inside and outside them, can have dramatic affects on certain horses.

If I was in the OP's situation, I would look for the one horse that shows up every single race, never gets himself in trouble, is comfortable inside and outside and in traffic, and always runs to the wire, regardless of the lengths behind the leaders. Who that is, I don't know yet, but those are the types of performances I must make before I construct my superfecta ticket(s).

[Heisenberg]

You guys are awesome, thanks for the kind words and support. The second day of May is literally going to be one of the most exciting days of my life as a gambler.

Props to Twinspires as well. They called me yesterday and comped me Derby tickets. Class Act!

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Heisenberg

You guys are awesome, thanks for the kind words and support. The second day of May is literally going to be one of the most exciting days of my life as a gambler.

Props to Twinspires as well. They called me yesterday and comped me Derby tickets. Class Act!

Wow! Derby tickets alone make the contest a winner, win or lose. Have a great time there!!

[SecretAgentMan]

Take a survey like Dreyfuss in the movie "Let it Ride", go around asking everyone what they like, & then just draw a line thru the horses that the public at Churchill like the most, & finally bet on the horse that the public leasys like at Churchill, lmao......that would be hilarious if you did that & it worked.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Originally Posted by Heisenberg

You guys are awesome, thanks for the kind words and support. The second day of May is literally going to be one of the most exciting days of my life as a gambler.

Props to Twinspires as well. They called me yesterday and comped me Derby tickets. Class Act!

That's awesome. Free roll now.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the derby and see how the favorites do. I'm sure a majority of the 12 will try to play it "safe" and pick one of the "chalks" as the object is only to show instead of win. It will be easier said then done in a 20 horse field though. If I was in the same shoes I'd probably just go with American Pharoah as my show horse. I think he's going to be there at the head of the lane provided, he's not given a bad post. Classier then most I think he hits the tri at least. Best of luck.

[SecretAgentMan]

I will say one thing tho......most of these finaln12 finalists will be on AP or Dortmund ......I think both of those horses will have a lot of people tearing their tickets after the race

If I was in your position, which I'm not cause Penn Gaming won't allow us in the contest in my area, I would look for a horse thats consistintently in the money.......not winning every race, but is always grinding it out no matter what.

Much Mach Man was a decent size wager for show in 2011 because he was so consistent 2nd or 3rd.....

I absolutely love betting to show in the KD, because you're guaranteed to at least double your money on a favorite, & quadruple your money on a long shot.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I will say one thing tho......most of these finaln12 finalists will be on AP or Dortmund ......I think both of those horses will have a lot of people tearing their tickets after the race

If I was in your position, which I'm not cause Penn Gaming won't allow us in the contest in my area, I would look for a horse thats consistintently in the money.......not winning every race, but is always grinding it out no matter what.

Much Mach Man was a decent size wager for show in 2011 because he was so consistent 2nd or 3rd.....

I absolutely love betting to show in the KD, because you're guaranteed to at least double your money on a favorite, & quadruple your money on a long shot.

That's what makes this contest interesting thing as you only need to get show. I'm thinking there may be a few horses in the field that would be a better show wager then one of the favorites.