what's the equation?

[ultracapper]

I came up with..

The track is a device that is utilized to transfer money from the dreamers to the realists.

That's my take. I gave it a couple days because I was interested to see how others might look at it before I added my two cents.

Buffet's statement was interesting to me because he articulated, what he sees as, the secret to being a successful investor in such a simple way. Usually understanding, even the most complex things, in their simplest terms can lead to mastering that endeavor.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Because the others involved in the game are doing it for a living...whereas the "gamblers" are doing it as a "serious hobby". The more I stay in this game...the more I realize that, in a heavily-taxed gambling game such as this...there is no money left on the table for the "hobbyist". IMO...the biggest advantage that the "pro" gambler has over the hobbyist is the time element. While the rest of us are working at our regular jobs...the professional gambler is spending that time improving his gambling skills.

I think what you filled the blanks in with is in many ways saying the same thing I'm saying, in some ways anyway.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

...........that brought me here. But there was something missing from this. Why does it move from the gamblers to the others involved in the game? There is something the "winners" have over the losers,

which...........

If you want an honest answer I think most people can’t beat this game no matter how hard they try. It takes a certain level of knowledge, analytical ability, discipline, and self control that most people don’t have. Then on top on that most people don’t have the time to dedicate to it. That’s your answer.

I manage to be profitable most years, but when you consider the amount of money I’ve made over the years and the amount of work I’ve done and still do now the whole thing is idiotic. I love the sport and intellectual challenge, so I continue, but it doesn’t make much sense.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

If you want an honest answer I think most people can’t beat this game no matter how hard they try. It takes a certain level of knowledge, analytical ability, discipline, and self control that most people don’t have. Then on top on that most people don’t have the time to dedicate to it. That’s your answer.

I manage to be profitable most years, but when you consider the amount of money I’ve made over the years and the amount of work I’ve done and still do now the whole thing is idiotic. I love the sport and intellectual challenge, so I continue, but it doesn’t make much sense.

Like it or not, a certain somewhat indefinable "knack" is also needed. A natural talent, if you will. A feel..a zone.

A golf instructor once summarized my failure to transcend a certain level by explaining that beyond its component parts, a proper swing incorporates an intangible "feel"..an elusive "flow" ..that only exceptional players ever experience. I would relate that to beating the races.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Like it or not, a certain somewhat indefinable "knack" is also needed. A natural talent, if you will. A feel..a zone.

A golf instructor once summarized my failure to transcend a certain level by explaining that beyond its component parts, a proper swing incorporates an intangible "feel"..an elusive "flow" ..that only exceptional players ever experience. I would relate that to beating the races.

I agree...the stiffness of today's competition makes it a prerequisite that the winner at least approach the "genius" level. You can no longer be just a "competent" horseplayer and expect to come away with any long-term profits. The problem, of course, is that we all display a level of occasional "brilliance" which leaves us daydreaming of maybe, perhaps, someday, putting enough of these "brilliant" moments together to finally reach that rarified air of true "genius". It happens with golf too. Most golfers have stroked the sort of brilliant shot which leaves them wondering of how it might be if they could somehow be able to string enough of these shots together. It's what keeps us playing a losing game for as long as we do...IMO.

Many years ago during a major poker tournament in Las Vegas...I found myself sitting at the same poker table with the legendary Doyle Brunson. All the players at that table revered Brunson, and a couple of the younger ones were asking him questions in-between hands...which he would graciously answer as thoroughly as time permitted. I'll never forget when a "youngster" asked him: "Hey, Doyle...what's the best advice that you would give me if I wanted to be as good a poker player as you?" The living legend looked at him and, while flashing a huge smile, replied: "Son...you have as good a chance of being like me as a kid on the playground has of being like Michael Jordan".

I recall that at the time I felt that Brunson's remark was overexaggerated...and almost hurtful. It took many years for me to realize the truthfulness of it.

[classhandicapper]

Like it or not, a certain somewhat indefinable "knack" is also needed. A natural talent, if you will. A feel..a zone.

Interesting turn to the conversation.

I find that whatever that "knack and feel" is it comes from experience, playing regularly, and being in top shape mentally. It's not stable. There are periods where I am in the zone and the clarity of my thinking is as high as it can be for little old me. Other times I look back at my bets and can't even begin to comprehend what was thinking at the time they were so stupid. And it's not just whether the horses won or lost. It's the actual thinking that lead to the bets.

A few years back I tried to overcome that inconsistency by using my database to generate automatic plays that would take those mental ups and downs out of my play, but it was pretty much a debacle. I was losing and had to stop. Now I'm back to doing what I was doing before but armed with more knowledge from the database work. I'm on a roll again. Things are going as well as they have since the 90s and early 2000s. I thought those ROI days were over. We'll see how long it lasts. I could easily be whining in a few weeks that nothing make sense again. But I agree there is an ebb and flow to your mental sharpness that can be called "feel" based on your experience.

[acorn54]

there is a statistical measurement called r-squared that measures the efficiency of horses running to their odds. benter measured this at the hong kong tracks and found that over the past 10 years the tracks there are only roughly 1/2 as inefficient today. i don't think it is much of a stretch to presume the same in the u.s.

[ultracapper]

Mental clarity. Mental sharpness. The Zone. All of these

Sometimes, I swear, the difference from one day to the next is how much coffee I drank before I start handicapping. Or how much sleep, or if I woke up with a stiff back or not. Definitely sluggishness from too much beer the night before is a poor time to start the process.

I try to put 20-30 minutes aside before I even begin a handicapping session to clear my mind and sort through distractions in order to eliminate them for a couple hours. Efficient handicapping is not picking up the form while eating breakfast or sitting in your backyard with a cig and a cup of coffee. I need my work station cleared and clutter free.

Seldom do I sit down in front of my computer, mind cleared, and begin handicapping, and even when I do, issues from the first paragraph may be hindering my efforts.