Contrarian Investing-JNJ?

[Ocala Mike]

Changed my mind about Hertz. Someone talk me out of buying some GE.

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Changed my mind about Hertz. Someone talk me out of buying some GE.

Not Me.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

While the futures this morning are down(again) on $WTIC, it looks to me like it's close to a bottom. One of my best investments several years back was shorting oil when it hit $110/bbl. This is mostly a gut feeling, while all my indicators are mixed. IF the market does reverse(big IF), then it will need energy to fuel the expansion. Since wind, sun and atomic power sources aren't really too invested in the markets yet, we're gonna need a glut of oil. And I read all the "energy/oil experts" reports, and they all contradict each other. For now, I'll remain on stand-by.
(edit)-I see a 1 to 2 year target at $53 /bbl.

Oil is up 75% since this post when it sat at $20. The USO oil fund's yearly high was $106.56. It closed yesterday at 26.22 and been stuck somewhat in a range for 2-3 weeks. Yesterday I took a short drive to the Xfinity store on the other side of town in mid-morning to exchange some equipment. I told my wife, I couldn't remember the last time I saw that many cars and trucks on the road on a weekday. Just last week, the energy "analysts" on CNBC were lamenting that they don't see the demand for oil getting very high anytime soon. Have these people taken a drive lately? Ok, I can't see it getting back to the weekly high anytime soon, but it ain't staying in the 20's for long.

I hate it that so many people are hurting from this economic castrophe our leaders have put onto us, but I've never seen so many opportunities for contrarian investors. That may sound callous while our country is burning, but you got to go with the flow at all times.

[FakeNameChanged]

Quote:
Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged View Post
Insider sales seem unusually high for Moderna, IF they really do have a viable vaccine for Covid-19. Normally I mostly pay attention to Insider buys, but when 6 sales totalling over $30 million were made this past week by the CEO(2), CFO(2), CMO, and General Counsel it doesn't bode well in my opinion.

Their latest insider activity puts them in -24% ownership activity. It may be that they knew a Fraudulent lawsuit was going to be filed on Friday May 22, that they engaged in fraud concerning the news about Covid-19 by a former Att. general of Louisiana.

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

Dropping like a rock since their big announcement. More than one lawsuit charging them with fraud on investors now. It was the 900 points up day in Dow when they reported to have successful vaccine tests.

Looks like the pain is continuing with Moderna, price was down $5 again today. And last week, several more insiders piled on and sold another $89 Million. That puts their ownership in the -33% bracket now. Does that sound like a company on the verge of having a vaccine. Insiders know how well the test results are going. It's probably the first thing they talk about at the morning meetings.
I think they'll be back in the 30's by years end, which is $50 below the day they announced their positive results.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

While the futures this morning are down(again) on $WTIC, it looks to me like it's close to a bottom. One of my best investments several years back was shorting oil when it hit $110/bbl. This is mostly a gut feeling, while all my indicators are mixed. IF the market does reverse(big IF), then it will need energy to fuel the expansion. Since wind, sun and atomic power sources aren't really too invested in the markets yet, we're gonna need a glut of oil. And I read all the "energy/oil experts" reports, and they all contradict each other. For now, I'll remain on stand-by.
(edit)-I see a 1 to 2 year target at $53 /bbl.

Oil futures over $40 this morning. My P&F charts are showing resistance in the $44-46 range; after that more resistance at the $53 target mentioned above. If it breaches both of them and stays above, my revised target is $80/bbl. I want to see how the govt. reacts to the 2nd big outbreak, that's on the near horizon. My short trips to market this past week, the roads looked like Christmas-time shoppers, and it wasn't rush hour, if that's even a valid term anymore.

My research has shown that frackers need $50/bbl to make money. A few of the richer basins are profitable in the mid 40's, but 50 has been the benchmark. Of course, Ol' Joe is gonna shut 'em down.

[Saratoga_Mike]

NVAX $64.75.

Congrats to OM, who I believe owns it with a cost basis sub $10.

[Ocala Mike]

I took thousands off the table (no guts and needed some cash), but still have a few shares with a cost basis of around $7. Riding this to the moon, and based on their prospects lately, it may not be too late to "buy high, sell higher" if anyone wants to get in.

1. Close to getting approval for Nanoflu vaccine for seniors.
2. Trials for COVID-19 vaccine proceeding on target in Australia - maybe news on Phase 1 soon.
3. Already has a contract with DOD to provide vaccine in limited quantities, and they're gearing up for production for lots more.
4. Funding no problem now, and if you're a chartist, you won't find sweeter looking technicals.

[FakeNameChanged]

Nikola(NKLA) looks like a short prospect to me. It looks like it's lost some of its cult steam lately. I've been avoiding cult stocks as much as possible. But I used to consider Apple a cult stock way back, but at least they had actual products that were getting bought. How many cultists will buy a $350-400K semi truck or an $80K pickup?

I do like their forward thinking of using hydrogen fuel cells to power their electric drives. I think they'll have to also build the infrastructre for hydrogen filling station. From what I've read, they're primarily located in California. No planned availability dates announced for the pickups yet. The CEO is like Elon Musk on steroids. The pickup's rated HP is 906 with 0-60 listed at 2.9 seconds. I heard him say the price for Badger pickup at 60-80K. It will most likely wind up at 80-100K. Of course a lot of people are spending 50-60K for pickups right now.

I think the opportunity to make money with the hydrogen stations, may dwarf the profitability of semi's and pickups. It will take a massive investment to put that into play.

[oughtoh]

They said they will start taking reservations and deposits for the pickup trucks on the 29th. Supposedly the deposits are $200.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

I took thousands off the table (no guts and needed some cash), but still have a few shares with a cost basis of around $7. Riding this to the moon, and based on their prospects lately, it may not be too late to "buy high, sell higher" if anyone wants to get in.

1. Close to getting approval for Nanoflu vaccine for seniors.
2. Trials for COVID-19 vaccine proceeding on target in Australia - maybe news on Phase 1 soon.
3. Already has a contract with DOD to provide vaccine in limited quantities, and they're gearing up for production for lots more.
4. Funding no problem now, and if you're a chartist, you won't find sweeter looking technicals.

what about AIM

[Ocala Mike]

All we can do with AIM is wait for overdue news from Japan. I don't have too much hope for this one; just trading it. Maybe a takeover candidate, I guess.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

I took thousands off the table (no guts and needed some cash), but still have a few shares with a cost basis of around $7. Riding this to the moon, and based on their prospects lately, it may not be too late to "buy high, sell higher" if anyone wants to get in.

1. Close to getting approval for Nanoflu vaccine for seniors.
2. Trials for COVID-19 vaccine proceeding on target in Australia - maybe news on Phase 1 soon.
3. Already has a contract with DOD to provide vaccine in limited quantities, and they're gearing up for production for lots more.
4. Funding no problem now, and if you're a chartist, you won't find sweeter looking technicals.

Sounds like it might blow over $100 today.

[Ocala Mike]

Already there pre-market. They got $1.6 billion from Operation Warp Speed. The NYT article from a while back projecting likely vaccine candidates that would get gov't funding didn't even have them mentioned. Many kept the faith and knew better.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

Oil futures over $40 this morning. My P&F charts are showing resistance in the $44-46 range; after that more resistance at the $53 target mentioned above. If it breaches both of them and stays above, my revised target is $80/bbl. I want to see how the govt. reacts to the 2nd big outbreak, that's on the near horizon. My short trips to market this past week, the roads looked like Christmas-time shoppers, and it wasn't rush hour, if that's even a valid term anymore.

My research has shown that frackers need $50/bbl to make money. A few of the richer basins are profitable in the mid 40's, but 50 has been the benchmark. Of course, Ol' Joe is gonna shut 'em down.

Continental Resources' Chairman Harold Hamm has bought close to $110 million of his own company's stock just in June and July. (The cahones on this guy). Five other insiders bought about $3 Million more. Continental is one of the biggest oil and gas frackers here in the US. Are they betting that Joe Biden if elected won't shut down all fracking as promised live on TV? He did add he'll "work it out", so is that pol talk for we'll work it out in 5 years, 10 years, etc.?

I'm still very bullish on oil with our economic recovery, hoping there's not another total lockdown on the economy. It reached a high of $41.08 yesterday; my charts imply that if it breaches the 250 day EMA @ $43.64, it's off to the races towards 53/bbl target I mentioned a couple months back.

With the warm winters we've been having, I'm still in the dark on nat gas, although Continental also produces nat gas.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Already there pre-market. They got $1.6 billion from Operation Warp Speed. The NYT article from a while back projecting likely vaccine candidates that would get gov't funding didn't even have them mentioned. Many kept the faith and knew better.

You should write the Ocala Mike pharma newsletter. You could be another Porter Stansberry, only your picks actually work. Stand in front of SUFF's condo and Humvee for the cover shot.