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06-03-2009, 04:33 PM
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#61
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,297
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andymays
Which track?
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Hasting's and I have taped full cards at many other tracks, knowing that the television cameras are stable, and they don't vary much either at those I hav checked.
I spoke with Joe, the starter, about run up differences and he said the stewards would all over him if he varied it too much. He had just come from a starter's convention in Louisville and mentioned that was a topic of discussion there.
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
Last edited by 46zilzal; 06-03-2009 at 04:39 PM.
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06-03-2009, 04:34 PM
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#62
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,761
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
The run ups are now part of the free charts available at Equibase. Anyone can get the info that wants it.
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Yeah, but that raises the next integrity issue, as if another one is needed. How are the distances derived? Is someone for Equibase (since they handle the chart calling) going to laser measure every race? I doubt it. So is the reported data just going to be what the track says. If a track has a set distance and the gate crew places that gate at that point with only minor (5ft or less) variations, fine. But, take those figures from Belmont and Mr. Campo's answer. There are some organizations which would have the crew place it more consistently from now on. Others would not fight the crew, and just say that it's consistent. How would anyone know? And with a range of 24ft (40-64ft) all being reported as 48ft ...
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06-03-2009, 04:38 PM
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#63
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 9,908
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceBored
Yeah, but that raises the next integrity issue, as if another one is needed. How are the distances derived? Is someone for Equibase (since they handle the chart calling) going to laser measure every race? I doubt it. So is the reported data just going to be what the track says. If a track has a set distance and the gate crew places that gate at that point with only minor (5ft or less) variations, fine. But, take those figures from Belmont and Mr. Campo's answer. There are some organizations which would have the crew place it more consistently from now on. Others would not fight the crew, and just say that it's consistent. How would anyone know? And with a range of 24ft (40-64ft) all being reported as 48ft ...
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I think this is an important issue and the reason I'm following up is that as we go on we seem to find out more stuff about the different Racetracks. If people go to the trouble of producing accurate figures then we should know how accurate they really are!
Good Stuff!
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06-03-2009, 04:40 PM
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#64
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,761
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andymays
I've never been to Equibase. Do the run ups for Santa Anita match up with what I posted earlier? How about Del Mar?
Thanks
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The free Equibase charts only go back about a week.
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06-03-2009, 04:43 PM
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#65
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 9,908
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FenceBored
The free Equibase charts only go back about a week.
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I'm just curious to see if they jive with the info the Tracks sent me. Emeral Downs said all run ups are 50 feet and so did Churchill with the exception of 6F witch is 80 feet. Do those jive?
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06-03-2009, 04:58 PM
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#66
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 9,908
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I just went Equibase and their figures do not jive with what Emerald Downs sent. I emailed Emerald back to double check.
Churchills aren't close either!
This is crap! But I'm glad we're finding this out!
Last edited by andymays; 06-03-2009 at 05:05 PM.
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06-03-2009, 05:26 PM
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#67
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 1,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andymays
I just went Equibase and their figures do not jive with what Emerald Downs sent. I emailed Emerald back to double check.
Churchills aren't close either!
This is crap! But I'm glad we're finding this out!
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Early in my horse racing life I was a numbers man. No more.It was things like this that changed my approach. I learned that when a horseplayer tells you that "Time is only important if you are in jail" he has a point.
I now rely on on trip handicapping ,body language and situation handicapping.
rwwupl
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06-03-2009, 05:29 PM
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#68
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 2,277
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You get a Big Amen Bruddah!
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06-03-2009, 05:32 PM
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#69
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 9,908
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rwwupl
Early in my horse racing life I was a numbers man. No more.It was things like this that changed my approach. I learned that when a horseplayer tells you that "Time is only important if you are in jail" he has a point.
I now rely on on trip handicapping ,body language and situation handicapping.
rwwupl
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I'm with you but predicting the early pace has always been important in my handicapping until synthetics. I have always looked at the DRF and watched videos and read workout comments for the most part. If the run ups vary from race to race at any give track then the first quarter fraction is almost useless.
I'm interested in following this run up thing through a little more though.
Most of the Handicappers here seem to use software programs to do their handicapping so I'm wondering if many of them know about these discrepancies. If we find out that there are discrepancies.
Last edited by andymays; 06-03-2009 at 05:36 PM.
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06-03-2009, 05:54 PM
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#70
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
As others have mentioned, the differences in run ups at different distances don't really matter. Any decent figure maker is going to have that built into his numbers. What matters is when the run ups are not consistent.
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well i guess i disagree with "others" as well.
the run up distance differences do matter in my opinion.
the fact that you are aware of them and you are confident in dealing with them, I think says good about your own figures, which happen to have a good reputation.
Gulfstream is one example of a dramatic difference between 7furlongs and a mile in run up time.
I could be wrong but I am also confident in my methodology.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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06-03-2009, 06:10 PM
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#71
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 9,908
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
well i guess i disagree with "others" as well.
the run up distance differences do matter in my opinion.
the fact that you are aware of them and you are confident in dealing with them, I think says good about your own figures, which happen to have a good reputation.
Gulfstream is one example of a dramatic difference between 7furlongs and a mile in run up time.
I could be wrong but I am also confident in my methodology.
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As this thread goes on we are finding out that the gate is not placed in the same spot for the same distance on a given day and it can vary up to 20 feet either way. If this is true at all Tracks or some Tracks then it is a problem. I think we'll know more in a day or two.
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06-03-2009, 07:07 PM
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#72
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 9,908
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Just got this from Emerald Downs after I sent them the Eqibase Charts with the varying run ups..
Andy,
Thank you for alerting me to the incorrect info that is being posted by Equibase. Our media relations manager is going to contact Equibase tomorrow to have that corrected. Our run-up distances are approximately 50 feet for every race.
Kerry
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06-03-2009, 07:54 PM
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#73
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
well i guess i disagree with "others" as well.
the run up distance differences do matter in my opinion.
the fact that you are aware of them and you are confident in dealing with them, I think says good about your own figures, which happen to have a good reputation.
Gulfstream is one example of a dramatic difference between 7furlongs and a mile in run up time.
I could be wrong but I am also confident in my methodology.
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I actually don't think we are disagreeing. I'm just saying if, for example, the dramatic difference at Gulfstream is consistent, that difference will be built into the figures very accurately. If it is inconsistent (it is at GP), you can have a problem if you don't know about it.
As to the rest of this thread, I agree 100%. If we can't trust the information provided, it is better to have no information at all.
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06-03-2009, 07:55 PM
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#74
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andymays
Just got this from Emerald Downs after I sent them the Eqibase Charts with the varying run ups..
Andy,
Thank you for alerting me to the incorrect info that is being posted by Equibase. Our media relations manager is going to contact Equibase tomorrow to have that corrected. Our run-up distances are approximately 50 feet for every race.
Kerry
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What day? It is very simple to see who is right and who is wrong. Even if you don't know the precise distance via replay, you can certainly see if the gate is in the same place.
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06-03-2009, 07:57 PM
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#75
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 9,908
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
What day? It is very simple to see who is right and who is wrong. Even if you don't know the precise distance via replay, you can certainly see if the gate is in the same place.
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I'm not sure what your saying. Is Equibase right or is Emerald Downs right?
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