Pick 6 Ticket Structure -- Crist

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

I would think getting value in the P6 isn't much of a concern if you are playing into any kind of decent carryover. You are already playing into a positive expectation pool. Just stay alive and pick the winners.

I agree.

If the carryover is large it changes the bet. The rare times I play there is usually a large carryover. I feel more comfortable including a few high probabilty horses that I know will be overbet when all that extra money is in the pool.

[chickenhead]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Less than that and you are bucking a bigger take and taxes on random contenders without adding any value to the ticket.

That to me is the strange thing about the Pick 6. The pool is so exaggerated, so biased to only the favorites -- that actually just having more of the logical combos creates it's own value.

There are two ways to really get value it seems:

extremely bold handicapping opinion and hitting the race with a very thin number or numbers of horses.

less than bold opinion, but betting it as "deep" as the race requires, rather than as deep as your bankroll can afford.

I don't think win pool value has to have much to do with either.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by chickenhead

That to me is the strange thing about the Pick 6. The pool is so exaggerated, so biased to only the favorites -- that actually just having more of the logical combos creates it's own value.

There are two ways to really get value it seems:

extremely bold handicapping opinion and hitting the race with a very thin number or numbers of horses.

less than bold opinion, but betting it as "deep" as the race requires, rather than as deep as your bankroll can afford.

I don't think win pool value has to have much to do with either.

If I understand you, I think I agree.

I think there is a reasonable enough correlation between win odds and how the horses are bet in the pic 6 to use any value oriented insights about the horses to win to create pic 6 value.

On the other hand, some combinations may be overbet or underbet based on the bankroll sizes of many players and their typical strategies etc....

I think a potential problem with trying to exploit the latter is that it probably requires a very huge bankroll. I guess I tend to think of these things from my own perspective. I could never imagine myself dumping huge money into the Pic 6 on a regular basis.

[chickenhead]

the favorites can also be big overlays in the Pick 6 pool. tlg mentioned than when he was talking about FTS races, but I think it can be true in any big field.

In the 6th at Keeneland yesterday I singled the 11. It was a pretty aggressive single, but the horse looked like a standout, had everything I wanted to see, and he was 7/2 on the ML.

I happened to notice the TVG pick 4's, Schrupp went ALL in the race, Lyons used the 4 and 8 I think. I forget what he went off at, 2-1 maybe, not a price I wanted to bet him in the win pool. But he was undoubtedly an overlay in the Pick 6 pool, especially for anyone who liked him enough to give him singleton status.

but, I didn't cash, which goes back to the other point. You can turn up all sorts of value in individual races -- but you actually have to win them all to collect it.

[cj]

Originally Posted by twindouble

Well not all the time, take last week at Belmont JCGC $450 grand carryover, total pool of $1,700,000.00, would have had the 6 if Secret Agent wins and I still would have got peanuts. I wasn't hot to play it but my partners insisted only because of the carryover. The short fields and stand out horses didn't appeal to me. Couldn't even cover in the picks.

I would strongly disageee. That pool was a great oppurtunity for a small time player to make a very nice profit for peanuts. Given that setup of races, play small tickets and get way, way more than your moneys worth.

[chickenhead]

Originally Posted by cj

I would strongly disageee. That pool was a great oppurtunity for a small time player to make a very nice profit for peanuts. Given that setup of races, play small tickets and get way, way more than your moneys worth.

You played those races just right. It can be hard to not get greedy...

[twindouble]

Originally Posted by cj

I would strongly disageee. That pool was a great oppurtunity for a small time player to make a very nice profit for peanuts. Given that setup of races, play small tickets and get way, way more than your moneys worth.

cj, go back and read what I said in the Belmont pick 6 thread, I clearly said the same thing with a "modest" investment. There was very little chance for a huge score. we don't have a disagreement in my opinion.

[cj]

Originally Posted by chickenhead

You played those races just right. It can be hard to not get greedy...

All I was really saying was it was crazy to throw a big ticket at that pool. You still have to handicap the races and use common sense.

I would think the P6 paid tons more than a parlay that day.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

All I was really saying was it was crazy to throw a big ticket at that pool. You still have to handicap the races and use common sense.

I would think the P6 paid tons more than a parlay that day.

If 20% higher, which statistically is good, is " tons " then you would be correct....$650 parlay paid $780.

I gotta say, I disagree with a lot of what I read, and I don't mean this to be insulting, but are the opinions being reflected on the last page or so from people who have actually played a lot of Pick-6s and if so were they ones where their investments were at least a few hundred bucks? And, has anyone here had any real success in the Pick-6? I am not suggesting I have all the answers, or trying in any way to put people down who play small ( we bet what makes us comfortable ) but I think to truly understand what it takes to have success in the Pick-6 one has to have at least been involved in the coordination of tickets and the opinions I have been reading don't seem to reflect that.

[chickenhead]

I can say I don't have a lot of experience, that's why I started the thread. I've played about 10 large pick 6 tickets, haven't hit one yet -- lots of consos but not the big one. I've hit only small wins on smaller tickets.

In threads like this I generally just keep yapping to keep things alive and hopefully get some good info thrown out from others to correct me. Hopefully we'll get some diamonds along with all of the coal.

So don't worry about contradicting anything, it's a good thing.

[cj]

I would have thought the parlay was higher, but obviously I didn't bother to do the math. Still, it is pretty good when you consider so many huge chalks won in the sequence.

I would guess you either passed or only played small tickets that day, right? It seems to me that would be the key to P6 success. Realizing when the best time to play is, and even then, only playing when you have some solid opinions regardless of odds.

I've only played the P6 four times in my life, and hit two. All were small tickets, less than $100. Both times were big carryovers when the races looked very obvious. The other two were in big carryovers going for a score, but didn't come close.

I don't think I have the tempermant to successfully play P6s given the inevitable long wait between scores.

[the little guy]

In playing a Pick-6 your only initial concern is hitting it....not that you hate a couple favorites or like a couple horses in the sequence, as honestly strong opinions like that will be absolutely detrimental in constructing winning Pick-6 tickets. Basically you probably want to make a rough rundown of the races and determine how well you can narrow down the field and segregate your contendors. Contrary to something I read earlier, playing multiple tickets because you have tiered your selections should increase one's chances of winning, for the money being played, because you are spreading your money on your picks based on preference. If you only play one ticket every member of each race is being used for the same amount which hardly seems prudent or cost effective.

Anyone can obviously get lucky on a random day where they happen to be right but if you really want to have a chance to be successful over time in the Pick-6 you have to learn how to spend your money wisely to at least optimize your chances of winning for the amount you have bet.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

I would have thought the parlay was higher, but obviously I didn't bother to do the math. Still, it is pretty good when you consider so many huge chalks won in the sequence.

I would guess you either passed or only played small tickets that day, right? It seems to me that would be the key to P6 success. Realizing when the best time to play is, and even then, only playing when you have some solid opinions regardless of odds.

I've only played the P6 four times in my life, and hit two. All were small tickets, less than $100. Both times were big carryovers when the races looked very obvious. The other two were in big carryovers going for a score, but didn't come close.

I don't think I have the tempermant to successfully play P6s given the inevitable long wait between scores.

Oh, I played, but I screwed around, as I didn't care for a lot of the chalks, and pretty much opinion played.

I had three on one of my tickets. Went in for $524.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by chickenhead

the favorites can also be big overlays in the Pick 6 pool. tlg mentioned than when he was talking about FTS races, but I think it can be true in any big field.

I thought that was a very good insight from the TLG. The more situations like that you recognize, the easier it wil be to create value.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

If 20% higher, which statistically is good, is " tons " then you would be correct....$650 parlay paid $780.

I gotta say, I disagree with a lot of what I read, and I don't mean this to be insulting, but are the opinions being reflected on the last page or so from people who have actually played a lot of Pick-6s and if so were they ones where their investments were at least a few hundred bucks? And, has anyone here had any real success in the Pick-6? I am not suggesting I have all the answers, or trying in any way to put people down who play small ( we bet what makes us comfortable ) but I think to truly understand what it takes to have success in the Pick-6 one has to have at least been involved in the coordination of tickets and the opinions I have been reading don't seem to reflect that.

I've discussed the mathematics of comparing parlays to multi-race bets. It's a silly and often misleading idea. I can demonstrate why if desired.

If you were referring to me in the other part, I don't play Pic 6s very often because constructing the tickets that make mathematical and value oriented sense to me would typically require me enduring huge losing streaks. I would rarely spread as much as most supposed experts do (and suggest) because I am almost 100% certain they are including huge numbers of underlaid tickets among their total combinations (whether they realize it or not). Perhaps if they are very skilled, the long term net can work out positive. However, I think it's a bad idea to buck a higher take and taxes and then also throw in a lot of underlaid tickets because you are trying to hit the Pic 6 more often.

As CJ said, when there's a carry over, it changes the mathematics. It expands the number of combinations you can use and still expect a positive ROI.

Over the long haul it's all about value whether you are betting horses to show or Pic 6s. If you don't have the bankroll or temperment to play the wager properly, you shouldn't be playing.