Pick 6 Ticket Structure -- Crist

[chickenhead]

http://www.gamblersbook.com/weblink....il/572405.html

this is the only one I can find that sounds close, though the description doesn't mention Pick 6s.

[chickenhead]

Originally Posted by Light

But seriously, I believe the amount of $ you put in a Pk6 is overrated as evidence by last years 90k Pk6 syndicate ticket that busted in the 1st leg and the previous years catch of the BC Pk6 on an $8 ticket.

I would consider both of those extreme anomolies.

[pic6vic]

Light

The subject is not about picking winners or the amount bet or overbetting. It is about the structure of the tickets. The other things you mention are factors, but were not in the original question from CH.

Again Anyone who is interested in how to structure tickets should buy the book by Jerry Samovitz TITLED BRINGING HOME THE JACKPOT. It has more information than Crist's book and was written over 7 years ago. This book was written by a person who playedthe pick 6 for years in the late 80's

[toetoe]

I believe it has 'Jackpots' in the title. Another is 'Out of the Red and into the Black.' I have a third, but I forget the title. Has turned me into a less desperate loser.

[chickenhead]

I'll try them out, thanks.

I saw Mr. Samovitz registered today, hopefully he can add something to this thread.

[takeout]

http://www.gamblersbook.com/weblink....il/545705.html

[twindouble]

Someone explain to me how anyone can say they have a formula for picking the pick 6?

The best way to play the pick 6 is to play it when you think you have a good shot to hit it. In other words the card is suitable to you and the play is within the limits of your bankroll. The horses you come up with dictate pretty much how your ticket will be structured. Key horses are essential for the small investor, by small I'm saying anywhere from $96 to just under a grand.

What some pick 6 players forget about is within the 6 you have pick 3's and 4's and of course the pick 5 consolation or the rolling DD. Your strategy should be to use those picks to supplement your play off those key horses or even profit substantially.

When you spend the time to handicap 6 races and your decision is to play it and you don't think there's other betting opportunities in any of the races, that's a bad decision. Knowing when to play is a must with a limited bankroll, to just take a run at it is another mistake. Sure you can get lucky but overall it's a killer. How you evaluate the races when it comes to potential profit is important. For example going so deep to cover 3 horses in different races that will pay telephone numbers, risking your bankroll isn't necessary, think in terms of consolation and save your money. Here again, I'm talking the little guys.

Hedge your bets as the races unfold. For example you live in the last leg but you didn't go deep enough for whatever the reason, bet those horses that could deny you that good score. We all don't see everything even though you felt good to begin with.

As far as Crist goes, I wonder what I could do putting that kind of money in every time I like the card. I haven't sense the 6 come out and I'm not about to start now but it would be interesting to find out on paper. Maybe I'll do that.


Good luck,

T.D.

[1st time lasix]

Originally Posted by twindouble

Someone explain to me how anyone can say they have a formula for picking the pick 6?

The best way to play the pick 6 is to play it when you think you have a good shot to hit it. In other words the card is suitable to you and the play is within the limits of your bankroll. The horses you come up with dictate pretty much how your ticket will be structured. Key horses are essential for the small investor, by small I'm saying anywhere from $96 to just under a grand.

What some pick 6 players forget about is within the 6 you have pick 3's and 4's and of course the pick 5 consolation or the rolling DD. Your strategy should be to use those picks to supplement your play off those key horses or even profit substantially.

When you spend the time to handicap 6 races and your decision is to play it and you don't think there's other betting opportunities in any of the races, that's a bad decision. Knowing when to play is a must with a limited bankroll, to just take a run at it is another mistake. Sure you can get lucky but overall it's a killer. How you evaluate the races when it comes to potential profit is important. For example going so deep to cover 3 horses in different races that will pay telephone numbers, risking your bankroll isn't necessary, think in terms of consolation and save your money. Here again, I'm talking the little guys.

Hedge your bets as the races unfold. For example you live in the last leg but you didn't go deep enough for whatever the reason, bet those horses that could deny you that good score. We all don't see everything even though you felt good to begin with.

As far as Crist goes, I wonder what I could do putting that kind of money in every time I like the card. I haven't sense the 6 come out and I'm not about to start now but it would be interesting to find out on paper. Maybe I'll do that.


Good luck,

T.D.

I never "hedge" my plays if I am alive into the last legs of a pick 3 or pick 4...{rarely play pick 6} I have always believed that this is speculation and not money in the bank. My old mentor used to say "if you are afraid....get a dog!" If you win the hedge ....it doesn't make you feel that much better. Stick with your game plan.....trust yourself and live with the results. Just play the cards as they are dealt.

[rrbauer]

chickenhead wrote:
"But in a pick 6, as I think Crist really intelligently puts out there, due to the nature of the pool betting in proper proportions creates its own value, i.e. the public massively overbets the favorites in the pools due to the rapidly growing number of possible combinations."

The bet has intrinsic value when the pools become large (as in SoCal P6's) and other venues when carryovers increase the pools to $100K and more. The large pools invite more and more players to "take a shot". Of course, in most cases, their "shot" includes all of the favs; while, at the same time, their play does not include enough combinations outside of those favs to give them a legitimate chance of winning.

From my perspective, the BC P6, is a lousy bet for most players. As TD points out you have to be able to hit the thing to make any money and it's difficult enough to get your handicapping-arms around half of those races because they are so contentious, that trying to build a P6 play with even a "fat" play of $2- or $3K leaves lots of gaps in coverage. Testimony to that is that (at lease in recent years....don't know how far back it goes) a flat bet on all BC horses going off at odds greater than 10-1 yields a profit.

In the BC races you have your hands full trying to take down a P3 or P4.

[chickenhead]

rrb - I couldn't agree more, that's why I made the point I made. Even a $3K ticket on a day like that still needs to be played like a little ticket, with aggressive singles.

Trying to back up on every race eats too many tickets, and it's close to impossible to be pretty much right in every race. But, its not that difficult to be extremely right in one or two races.

Just think about the kind of coverage you can get with a $3-5K ticket with two aggressive singles. If one loses you are still in great shape for a conso. If you can get them both home there are really not going to be any tickets out there that are better than yours.

[chickenhead]

to look at it in it's most basic sense, a $3K ticket with two singles gives you 1500 combinations to hit a pick 4.

With 4 12 horse fields and 1500 combos, you got a 7% chance of hitting those 4 remaining races even if the results are totally random. Assuming the results in all 4 races won't be completely random moves your percentages way way up.

But even assuming random results, hitting that pick 4 only 7% of the time, and your singles at say 80% each, your pick 6 hit rate is just below 5%.

[twindouble]

Originally Posted by 1st time lasix

I never "hedge" my plays if I am alive into the last legs of a pick 3 or pick 4...{rarely play pick 6} I have always believed that this is speculation and not money in the bank. My old mentor used to say "if you are afraid....get a dog!" If you win the hedge ....it doesn't make you feel that much better. Stick with your game plan.....trust yourself and live with the results. Just play the cards as they are dealt.

I agree with that, note I said if you missed something. Don't we all do that?

[twindouble]

Originally Posted by rrbauer

chickenhead wrote:
"But in a pick 6, as I think Crist really intelligently puts out there, due to the nature of the pool betting in proper proportions creates its own value, i.e. the public massively overbets the favorites in the pools due to the rapidly growing number of possible combinations."

The bet has intrinsic value when the pools become large (as in SoCal P6's) and other venues when carryovers increase the pools to $100K and more. The large pools invite more and more players to "take a shot". Of course, in most cases, their "shot" includes all of the favs; while, at the same time, their play does not include enough combinations outside of those favs to give them a legitimate chance of winning.

From my perspective, the BC P6, is a lousy bet for most players. As TD points out you have to be able to hit the thing to make any money and it's difficult enough to get your handicapping-arms around half of those races because they are so contentious, that trying to build a P6 play with even a "fat" play of $2- or $3K leaves lots of gaps in coverage. Testimony to that is that (at lease in recent years....don't know how far back it goes) a flat bet on all BC horses going off at odds greater than 10-1 yields a profit.

In the BC races you have your hands full trying to take down a P3 or P4.

Betting the horses you like doesn't mean your just leaning on chalks, pick 3, 3, or 4 now does it? I can't tell you the number of times the pick 3's and 4's got covered my pick 6 investment plus.

[jerry samovitz]

In response to Chickenheads question, I will get to it in a few minutes.

My friend told me about these Pick 6 comments and I wanted to respond. In 1999 I wrote my book “Bringing Home the Jackpots” where I outlined in detail a method of playing the Pick 6 and the Pick 4 and Superfectas. At this time the Pick 4 was just coming available at thoroughbred tracks and had been tried at standardbred and quarter horse tracks. I played my methods. I played many times. I played the Pick 6’s in the 80’s and Pick 4’s using this method fairly recently. I walk the walk. I have put in over 150 tickets into one pick 6 and have actually hit a condensed variation miss 5 for almost $30,000.

As far as I know I was the first to publish this Pick 4 and Pick 6 approach. As I mentioned I have been using and had published this approach for years before Mr Crist’s book hit the market.

Actually the first mention I saw of a miss method was Prof. Gordon Jones who was constructing miss one tickets to tackle the Pick 6 way back in the early 80’s. I must mention that Barry Meadows was also playing at this time his version of a miss ticket. I expanded on the idea and wrote it up in detail. I originally showed this approach in 1996 in my book “Betting and Beating the Exotics” in relation to Pic 3’s

.

It really hurts me to read when one in an influential position with the racing form writes up an old concept and it becomes his concept. It isn’t .

I wrote to Mr Crist about this and sent him my book. I wrote him a very nice letter and said if he happened to arrive at the same approach it would be gentlemanly if he could at least INCLUDE MY BOOK IN HIS LIBRARY IN THE RACING FORM. He never showed the decency to respond.

If Mr Melville ten years after publishing Moby Dick, read a story written by some newpaper owner who had access to free advertising about a great white whale, I imagine the original author would be quite upset. It would especially hurt if he received credit for the idea. You can imagine how I feel.

Briefly, by playing a miss ticket The Pick 6 can be played with more power for the buck. One doesn’t have to play enormous tickets but should realize that there are chances all the winning horses can be included on a miss ticket and still not connect on the ticket. It is important to construct the ticket so this doesn’t happen too often. No one can deny that your first two picks in a race have a better chance of winning then your third and fourth choice in the same race. Therefore by keying these main picks one can gain as I said more power for the buck or a mathematical edge which I describe in detail in my book.



For the same price if wisely constructed you will have a better success rate for the same investment. You will work harder and still suffer many tough beats but you will improve your efficiency..

For Breeders Cup I have to agree with one of the threads I read that it would be very expensive as contentious as the fields are. I tried a few times when it used to be a Pick 7 with over $3,000 and had no success.

I have learned to play the Pick 6 only if I really like a few races. Chickenhead’s original question has much merit. Why spend more on what you don’t like? Why not spend more on what you are not sure of?

I agree and one should structure the ticket around your strengths. It hurts a lot less if you lose when the horse you like goes down. I wouldn’t be playing originally if I didn’t like those horses. So if I love a horse I may still single the horse or use maybe one alternate and expand in the other races. The one alternate costs so much less than the main pick and that is essentially why I love miss tickets. You don’t have to double the cost of the ticket for a little insurance. The maker of the ticket should spend much time in considering the structure of the ticket for this reason.

Frankly, if I knew St Liam couldn’t lose the classic as he says, I would spend my money keying him on top in the Superfecta for $1,000 or so and let the chips fall where they may rather than try to hit five other races and spend more money.

If I could be of any help please write and thank you for reading this thread.

[the little guy]

I see the book being discussed here was published in 1999 ( according to the poster who is apparently the author ).

While I don't believe Steve Crist ever referred to the Pick-6 stategy in " Exotic Betting " as " his strategy " I will say that I became friends with Steve in 1994 and shortly thereafter ( mid 1995 ) he had taught me his Pick-6 strategy detailed in the book. And, furthermore, Steve has been discussing his Pick-6 strategies in print since the late 1980s.

Just thought a timeline of events in racing history might help clear things up. The analogy the poster made to somebody essentially plagurizing Melville is as inaccurate as it is disgraceful and I would like to suggest that this person ( should he actually be the author ) think about such accusatory remarks before posting them in the future.