That did not go as planned .... - Page 4 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

TheGarMan · 05-07-2018, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneF

I don’t care how many hours of race replay I have to watch I VOW to find the horse that’s going to take him down at 1/20 in the Preakness. Justify will pay me back with interest in the Preakness !!!

Actually, LoneF if you just sit back and cool your jets and let the hype train gather momentum for another month , the best chance of you getting your money back (with interest as you say) from Justify will be on Belmont day.

It's a little early to tell, but I believe the Preakness will probably be a walk over for Justify.

The Belmont? Now that could be the time to pounce.

Time will tell.

f2tornado · 05-07-2018, 02:43 PM

The horse and rider make good trips. Yes, Justify had a perfect post but Smith made the most of it. It was obvious the the horse had the natural speed to be at or near the front which is often a good place to be in the slop. Would he have been beat coming out of the 17 hole? Perhaps, but the owner has the trophy. It’s too bad Mendelssohn got smoked at the break but I doubt he would have contended for the win regardless. He’d be interesting in the Preakness or Belmont since he wasn’t used all that much but sounds like he connections have other ideas.

AskinHaskin · 05-07-2018, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneF

about buying into hype. I bought it hook, line and sinker

There was no "hype" in the case of Mendelssohn other than what you fabricated on your own.

It wasn't "hype" that created the barn's 1-for-55 lifetime record in American graded stakes on dirt, and that reality was etched in stone long before Mendelssohn was a boil on his grandfather's ass.

You lost your money on someone who is near to an inept fool in American dirt racing as perhaps one of the finest trainers on dirt picked their pockets yet again.

It is akin to backing your favorite celebrity/actress on Dancing with the Stars just because they are your favorite in some other walk of life.

The walk-over for the Kentucky Derby is no place for inept fools.

With regard to the wagering windows there... inept fools line-up in droves to give their money away.

wisconsin · 05-07-2018, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The horse and rider make good trips. Yes, Justify had a perfect post but Smith made the most of it.

He only had to put away one horse, who we knew would cave at some point during the race, while nobody else was within striking distance that was not already front runner and we know front runners cannot close, or seldom do, into a fast pace. He simply waltzed after he got the perfect position.

Look for even more lightly raced horses who have talent to be the "in-thing" in the future. No reason to hurry a horse along anymore when foundation means so little. Simply trot out your best in the big preps, get enough points, and you are in.

cordoba · 05-07-2018, 03:11 PM

Easy Moneys

easy

coachv30 · 05-07-2018, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneF

It wasn’t just the slow time but it was the fact that nothing came running.

Did you hear Mike Smith comments to the outrider right after the race ?

A SLOPPY track makes it difficult for any deep closer to prevail..A horse like Vino Rosso for instance did not stand a chance on that track coming from the back. Other than Good Magic who had the rail trip down the stretch, NOBODY really gained any ground. I don't necessarily believe it was the lack of ability in this year's field but moe the track condition.

LoneF · 05-07-2018, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkunkApe

Please don't ban him again.

His posts raise my self esteem.

Like they say, if you're ever feeling fat or ugly, go the state fair. If you ever think you have poor handicapping skills, go read LoneF.

I didn’t want to bring this up BUT ...

The super paid over 190k .... A .10 super paid over 19k

I posted a .10 super that was a $96 investment. I had the 2-4 horses on my ticket correct. If I would have had the heavy favorite on top I would have hit for over 19k profit so let’s not act like I totally missed the race. Did I anticipate Mendelssohn getting wiped out at the start and Justify getting a fairy tale trip that Walt Disney couldn’t have dreamed up any better ... No I did not ...

I will eat, sleep and dream the Preakness for the next 2 weeks. No missteps this time. I will be like a laser... The Preakness will be the crown jewel of my illustrious handicapping career ...

I know Baffert is probably burning up the phone lines now calling all the glue factories in the local Baltimore area trying to fill the race but I won’t let that stop me lol

PaceAdvantage · 05-07-2018, 04:02 PM

Now 5-2 (3-1 up until the last minute or so) is a heavy favorite...

Whatever helps you sleep at night bub.

elysiantraveller · 05-07-2018, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by coachv30

A SLOPPY track makes it difficult for any deep closer to prevail..A horse like Vino Rosso for instance did not stand a chance on that track coming from the back. Other than Good Magic who had the rail trip down the stretch, NOBODY really gained any ground. I don't necessarily believe it was the lack of ability in this year's field but moe the track condition.

Good Magic spent the backstretch in the 3 path.

I think the major take away from this race is that you are going to have three very good 3yo's in Good Magic, Audible, and Justify who are all within a length or two of eachother in terms of ability.

GMB@BP · 05-07-2018, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneF

I didn’t want to bring this up BUT ...

The super paid over 190k .... A .10 super paid over 19k

I posted a .10 super that was a $96 investment. I had the 2-4 horses on my ticket correct. If I would have had the heavy favorite on top I would have hit for over 19k profit so let’s not act like I totally missed the race. Did I anticipate Mendelssohn getting wiped out at the start and Justify getting a fairy tale trip that Walt Disney couldn’t have dreamed up any better ... No I did not ...

I will eat, sleep and dream the Preakness for the next 2 weeks. No missteps this time. I will be like a laser... The Preakness will be the crown jewel of my illustrious handicapping career ...

I know Baffert is probably burning up the phone lines now calling all the glue factories in the local Baltimore area trying to fill the race but I won’t let that stop me lol

the full super paid 1$ 19k, they dont have a 10 cent.

LoneF · 05-07-2018, 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

the full super paid 1$ 19k, they dont have a 10 cent.

Your right it was 19k for a $1 so just 1.9k for .10

I would have felt dirty cashing the ticket either way. Probably would have needed a shower afterwards lol

Well it doesn’t matter if they have .10 supers or not for the Preakness because I won’t be fooling around with that. When I beat Justify in the Preakness and cash that super I am going for the big bucks lol

GMB@BP · 05-07-2018, 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneF

Your right it was 19k for a $1 so just 1.9k for .10

I would have felt dirty cashing the ticket either way. Probably would have needed a shower afterwards lol

Well it doesn’t matter if they have .10 supers or not for the Preakness because I won’t be fooling around with that. When I beat Justify in the Preakness and cash that super I am going for the big bucks lol

I bet against Justify as well...but I still can recognize his ability. You dont see to be able to separate the two.

AirNate012 · 05-07-2018, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneF

I didn’t want to bring this up BUT ...

The super paid over 190k .... A .10 super paid over 19k

I posted a .10 super that was a $96 investment. I had the 2-4 horses on my ticket correct. If I would have had the heavy favorite on top I would have hit for over 19k profit so let’s not act like I totally missed the race. Did I anticipate Mendelssohn getting wiped out at the start and Justify getting a fairy tale trip that Walt Disney couldn’t have dreamed up any better ... No I did not ...

I will eat, sleep and dream the Preakness for the next 2 weeks. No missteps this time. I will be like a laser... The Preakness will be the crown jewel of my illustrious handicapping career ...

I know Baffert is probably burning up the phone lines now calling all the glue factories in the local Baltimore area trying to fill the race but I won’t let that stop me lol

Dude, you are off your rocker.

First of all....Fairy tale trip!? 22/45 in the slop, pressing the pace at 10 furlongs? Fairly tale trip my ass, and once again, there are no $.10 cent supers on the Derby.

2nd of all, it paid $19,618.20 to $1.00. Wanna know how I know? Because I hit it twice, no shower needed.

Racetrack Playa · 05-07-2018, 04:23 PM

You can bet a 10cent super @ Preakness

LoneF · 05-07-2018, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AirNate012

Dude, you are off your rocker.

First of all....Fairy tale trip!? 22/45 in the slop, pressing the pace at 10 furlongs? Fairly tale trip my ass, and once again, there are no $.10 cent supers on the Derby.

2nd of all, it paid $19,618.20 to $1.00. Wanna know how I know? Because I hit it twice.

I already said I misread the super pay out. All my tickets had Mendelssohn singled on top so I just glanced at the payouts and moved on.

Yeah the fact no horse stepped up and put in any kind of a credible stretch run pretty much means he got a dream trip.

This horse should buy a lottery ticket. All 4 of his races were dream set ups. Once a decent horse gets Justify on the square than the bubble bursts ...