it's impossible to predict the belmont if justy doesn't fire

[Ribot Roboto]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

If Justify does not win to me its akin to picking a horse out of a hat.

None of these horses have shown real ability speed figure wise, so your statement to me makes a lot of sense.

Justifys worst figure is better than any horse in the race, routing wise.

You have to be able to think outside the box a little bit. Sure Justify would romp on this bunch at 9 furlongs, 10 furlongs, maybe even 11 furlongs. He might even do it at 12 furlongs but it’s nowhere near a sure thing. Trying to find one to beat him isn’t picking them out of a hat, its just the sensible thing to do unless you’re a bridge jumper because loading up on him is the only way you’re going to make any money on him here.

Some speed figures are almost as subjective as my and Papillion’s workout judging abilities but some people live by them. I’m always reminded of the required investment warning...past results are not indicative of future performance.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

The fall apart grade 2 wood memorial where he was all out to beat Enticed who set a real pace?

Did the Wood fall apart? Ignoring the run-off Old Time Revival, Enticed and Restoring Hope ran 1-2 for the first 6 furlongs and finished 2-3 after Vino Rosso collared them at the 1/4 pole and drove clear.

Hofburg with his suck-up second behind a ridiculous speed duel in the Florida Derby and his top "gallop out" in the Derby is much more suspect than Vino Rosso.

As far future endeavors go, the key difference is probably that one is trained by a guy who can't get a horse through a 4yo season and the other is trained by a guy who can (but can't seem able to get a horse ready in time for the 3yo classics).

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto

Sorry Pap. I promise to help you tell the difference sometime between a horse that’s ready to go and one that’s not.

He looked good on that work.

The negative workout comments were weird. Trust your eyes.


Blended Citizen is in peak form. Once in a while Doug O'Neill gets a stakes horse in really peak shape, and he's done that with Blended Citizen.

If you have a set of eyes and a brain, you are happy with that work. It wasn't as impressive as watching Justify move like a Breeders Cup Classic favorite, but it was good for Blended Citizen and it was good relative to the moves we've seen by this Belmont field.

The problem with Blended Citizen is that he's never done any running in 10 career starts.

He broke his maiden on the 5th try while getting a dream trip.
He got a dream trip in the eddie logan and the el camino real while not really ever posing a winning threat.
The Jeff Ruby Steaks race had some goofy premature middle move by Murgawitz(or whatever his name is). Other than it being a blanket finish Doug couldn't have written it up any better.
His Bluegrass was flat, in spite of the supposed excuse when Sporting Chance was punch-drunk in the stretch.
His Peter Pan was a dream trip although there was enough of a visually impressive element to the stretch run to give him some credit.


That's the good and the bad. This horse isn't going to compete. He doesn't do any of the work in the running of the race. He needs distance and he needs his rivals to work. He's in top form, and it's the Belmont going 12F with some who may not be dedicated plodders and may attempt to chase Justify... So if he runs his race he has an opportunity here to run 2nd or 3rd if the pace isn't really soft.

[Ribot Roboto]

I agree with much of what you said but a couple of things stand out to me in Blended Citizen’s past performances. First, he obviously took a big step forward when he turned three. Getting him back off the turf looks like it turned on the light switch, and they added blinkers. In the Pan he was much more forwardly placed. He’s a late foal that looks like he’s just now coming into his own.

If Justify loses he looks to me like the winner.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Did the Wood fall apart? Ignoring the run-off Old Time Revival, Enticed and Restoring Hope ran 1-2 for the first 6 furlongs and finished 2-3 after Vino Rosso collared them at the 1/4 pole and drove clear.

Hofburg with his suck-up second behind a ridiculous speed duel in the Florida Derby and his top "gallop out" in the Derby is much more suspect than Vino Rosso.

As far future endeavors go, the key difference is probably that one is trained by a guy who can't get a horse through a 4yo season and the other is trained by a guy who can (but can't seem able to get a horse ready in time for the 3yo classics).

I get what your saying but still feel like the race was slowing considerably down the stretch. I would expect a more talented horse to not have to battle Enticed the entire stretch, along with bumping him as well.

Vino Rosso has run exactly one good race.

Again, if the talented horse in this race does not run as we discussed, I feel like any one of 9 can win.

Betting this race feels like betting that 2M turf race on Friday.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I get what your saying but still feel like the race was slowing considerably down the stretch. I would expect a more talented horse to not have to battle Enticed the entire stretch, along with bumping him as well.

I agree, despite winning clear, it was hardly a resounding stretch drive by Vino Rosso.

However, this race is set up completely different with an additional 3 furlongs to consider. Whereas Vino Rosso might not possess a monster turn of foot nor be a fast horse in general, if he has any of the stamina his pedigree suggests, then his best might be good enough.

Additionally, Vino Rosso was hard used around the far turn at Aqueduct. Somewhere someone else said he didn't do well on the turns--an assertion I don't necessarily subscribe to---so if that's correct, he should get some relief from the wide turns at Belmont.

Meanwhile, I think its unlikely that Justify will be able to maintain the strong pace he displayed in previous races for the full 12 furlongs (i.e., there will be no Secretariat-type effort on Saturday). He's clearly gotten late in both the Derby and the Preakness after setting strong fractions and yet no one has been able to reel him in. That's either an indictment of the rest of the crop or a function of the sloppy track conditions and/or traffic woes of some of his rivals.

Justify has yet to show he can go slow and steady early. I think his average Timeform pace figure for the opening fractions is something like 140+. I don't think he can pull the same "blistering first half/staggering second half" strategy he did in the first two legs. He has done nothing yet to suggest he's truly rateable, certainly not with the blazing 1/2 mile work he uncorked last week.

Even the allowance race where he settled in 2-3 spot was a bit of an illusion. The frontrunner there, Calexman, is a runoff who also outfooted the hyped up Ax Man in a subsequent allowance race. Calexman has so much early speed he even mixed it up on the front end in a down-the-hill sprint on the grass. While its a good sign that Justify isn't so intractable that he couldn't lay off a horse like Calexman, the question remains can he slow himself down to an appropriate pace whereby he can comfortably see out the 12 furlongs.

American Pharoah, who already showed he could go slow early in the Rebel (and the Kentucky Derby relatively speaking), registered pace figures around 130 in his cakewalk Belmont, where he was completely untouched and left to his own devices throughout (just think if Lezcano had ridden Frosted that day instead of in the Travers...). Not sure such an ideal trip will materialize for Justify, and if Smith has to take a firm hold of him to keep him from going too fast early, it might draw someone else into making an early run at him. That's not going to help Justify beat his main rival, the 12 furlong distance.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto

There are what are known as “nicks”, i.e. certain pairings of certain lines in a pedigree work a lot better than others. The Raise A Native-Northern Dancer nick has historically and empirically been proven to be one of the best in classic distance races.

Just like you woudn't use the dreaded ND/BR, API for the KY Derby win spot (i.e. Patch, Montauk come to mind). Montauk not making the gate this year did the bettors a big favor, probably would have taken a lot of $$ due to being a Pletcher.

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by clicknow

I'm curious as to why you like FDB, by the way. I started talking about him about a week ago on here, and AFAIC, I'm one of the few who like him even a "little bit". So what is it about him, or his pedigree, that you like, specifically? I was surprised to see you bring him up

I mentioned him since you were discussing him. Awhile back I had read on a pedigree experts website that she liked Vino Rosso and Free Drop for potentially having the pedigree to go the derby distance. Both of them trotted off with some of my money then. Looking into it myself I saw FDB had a lot of routers in both his dam and sire lines. Nothing complicated.

Free Drop got a shit post position in the KD. Glad that can't really happen in the Belmont. I'm looking forward to seeing him run this and he'll have nice odds. I've watched his races a few times over I'm not sure what his limitations are compared to others who aren't Justify.

And my point earlier, was that I don't understand why it should be more significant that Blended has specific northern dancer/raise a nat. cross, when Free Drop is crossbred with those two like a checkerboard and he has the strongest direct distance pedigree from what I see. But it was ignorant of me to say that the success of a "nick" is really just coincidence.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

...I saw FDB had a lot of routers in both his dam and sire lines. Nothing complicated.

Free Drop got a shit post position in the KD. Glad that can't really happen in the Belmont. I'm looking forward to seeing him run this and he'll have nice odds. I've watched his races a few times over I'm not sure what his limitations are compared to others who aren't Justify.

FDB has a very low Dosage of 1.74 with most of his points dead center. He also has Audience in tail female. This line produced Derby winner Venetian Way and Preakness winner Timber Country. These suggest he could potentially handle 12 panels better than others. He's not particularly fast but could be a Keen Ice type. He had a nice work at CD a couple days ago. I'm highly skeptical he can win here but wouldn't be shocked if he added 40-1 flavor to your tri or super wager.

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto

I agree with much of what you said but a couple of things stand out to me in Blended Citizen’s past performances. First, he obviously took a big step forward when he turned three. Getting him back off the turf looks like it turned on the light switch, and they added blinkers. In the Pan he was much more forwardly placed. He’s a late foal that looks like he’s just now coming into his own.

If Justify loses he looks to me like the winner.

I am of a like mind.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by clicknow

I will probably bet against Justify for the win on a few tickets.

Right now, I like Bandua, Bravazo, Tenfold and.... Free Drop Billy for top part.

Haven't much changed my mind since a week ago ..Still like the same horses, except I think I'm kicking Bravazo to the curb if track is dry/fast. I can't help but think he may have just romped in the mud. Additionally, I'm not betting against Justify because of odds, I'm betting against him because I am making (mostly) pedigree plays and I actually don't think he has the right stuff for 12F. OTOH, the additional horses entered in this are not world beaters and based on performance he might just run by them because he is quite talented.

So same horses, tenfold and fdb in top parts, then throw in some vino rosso, hofburg, justify in next spots, and i'm gonna use Gronkowski and Blended in one particular spot only on tris and superfectas. Will have to work on my wager construction tomorrow.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Tenfold has the right breeding. I would keep him on ticket, I am using him very liberally in all top spots. If you forced me to pick a winner, right now, and only gave me a choice between Tenfold and Hofburg, I would take Tenfold. That's just me. 3.00 DI with 26 dosage points is quite a potent angle, horses who have won with that dosage index over last 30 years all had at least 26 points, less than 26 dosage points, like Justify, not so much. Of course, that is just sire side stuff.

Why don't you like Blended Citizen...curious.

I don't like Vino Rosso very much for the win. There has never been a horse who won the BEL with a dosage of between 3.54 and 4.00. That is never. Not crazy about his 0.88 CD either......but..... He does have some nice stamina from his mares side though and enough speed from that side to build to getting the distance.

I dunno what is going on with Seahenge or Bandua. Seahenge has not won a race in quite a while. If they come I think I like Bandua better, but I haven't heard they have even been confirmed, are they coming?????

I always paid attention to the CD in the Belmont. Something less than 0.55

I talked with Doug O'Neill a little bit today, although not about Blended Citizen. I'll talk to him about the race on Saturday.

[Ribot Roboto]

The average cd of the past 25 winners of the Belmont is 0.73.

[RunForTheRoses]

Says Irad is jockey...ok
Jerry Bailey predicts biggest Belmont challenge facing Justify: https://nypost.com/2018/06/08/jerry-...acing-justify/

[LemonSoupKid]

Justify 3.00, 0.75
Free Drop Billy 1.74, 0.42
Bravazo 2.75, 0.67
Hofburg 2.78, 0.65
Restoring Hope 1.72, 0.35
Gronkowski 3.00, 0.86
Tenfold 3.00, 0.69
Vino Rosso 3.57, 0.88
Noble Indy 3.00, 0.72
Blended Citizen 3.00, 0.71