Hong Kong Handle Up

[johnhannibalsmith]

You'd think some sharp Japanese investor would be buying up the carcasses of failing racetracks scattered around North America and start making a mint.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Bullshit.

BTW, what percentage of their handle is from countries other than HK?

Oh Really? Then why do you suppose the biggest horse players in the World (those like Bill Benter) and others support the HK game and shun our own tracks? I’d certainly take their opinion any day over a baseless and shallow comments like “Bullshit”.
http://www.worlds-greatest-gamblers....illiam-benter/

You might want to ask for that breakdown directly from the HKJC.
I may follow the money flow but not where it originates.

[AltonKelsey]

There's definitely a difference in the HK product, easy to see for anyone that looks.

Apparently the local crowd bets a huge amount of money, attracting pros like Benter who bet even more into the pools, in order to scalp the easy money. They also get a rebate directly from the track .

All this feeds on itself.

Here , in the USA , there simply isn't the $$$$ in the pools except for a few days a year , and a few meets.

If we had 10 million dollar pools every race, it would be a completely different game , for everyone.


Long ago, I predicted we might see only a few super tracks running in the USA, which would concentrate the betting. But it would decimate the breeding industry as we know it. Not to mention all the out of work track help and trainers/grooms/etc

But if there were only a few tracks, or ONE, like HK has, they could lower the takeout to 5%. That's right. And make plenty of money at it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

There's definitely a difference in the HK product, easy to see for anyone that looks.

Who's saying there isn't a difference in the product?

My point has always been, WHY IS THERE A DIFFERENCE? When you answer that question, honestly, then everything else falls into place nicely.

And it's not simply that "well, nobody in the USA wants to change things for the better...they're just idiots" or however the same old song and dance goes.

[AltonKelsey]

I just attempted to explain the difference.

Same thing could be done here. If you're willing to chop off a few heads.

[menifee]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Bullshit.

BTW, what percentage of their handle is from countries other than HK?

5.7 percent and going up.

[menifee]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

You'd think some sharp Japanese investor would be buying up the carcasses of failing racetracks scattered around North America and start making a mint.

Japan does over 2x U.S. handle on its racing.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

HK handle looks to be stalling with the locals

Article says that handle was up 6.9% per race over the last year but down by -2% YOY before that. So over the last 2 seasons handle is only up about 5%

But HK have been aggressively commingling and allowing more and more countries to bet into their pools the last few years. So most if not all of this 5% rise in the last 2 years would be due to the new commingled bets coming from outside HK

Those betting from outside HK will slowly lose enthusiasm for the HK product as they get no rebate while HKJC pays 10% rebates to the locals

So this looks to be the peak for HK turnover. All downhill from here

[Gamblor]

PaceAdvantage is right with his quote man. The MAIN reason HK racing goes so well is because the Chinese are the biggest gamblers in the world.

[Gamblor]

Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR

HK handle looks to be stalling with the locals

Article says that handle was up 6.9% per race over the last year but down by -2% YOY before that. So over the last 2 seasons handle is only up about 5%

But HK have been aggressively commingling and allowing more and more countries to bet into their pools the last few years. So most if not all of this 5% rise in the last 2 years would be due to the new commingled bets coming from outside HK

Those betting from outside HK will slowly lose enthusiasm for the HK product as they get no rebate while HKJC pays 10% rebates to the locals

So this looks to be the peak for HK turnover. All downhill from here

Ha... if you were going to get a gear change next start I would encourage it to be "blinkers off".

You don't understand the HK market. The rebates are no longer just for the Benter's of this world. In fact, I think the fact that they are now commomplace (or nearly so) may be one of the reasons your home bred pro has had a change of heart re HK...

Perhaps research HK before posting about an international pool like HK on a forum that may attract international posters. Feel free to continue posting with ignorance about American racing (if you are, I don't know, no-one outside America gives a **** about American racing...)

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by menifee

5.7 percent and going up.

WOW! The foreign exchanges provide Only 5.7% of the total handle in HK!

But wait a minute, instead of just throwing percentage numbers around, why not see what 5.7% of that Total 88-day handle of $15.28 Billion US$ really equates to.

(BTW those 88 days between Sha Tin & Happy Valley provided only 792 races)

Why that’s only $870,960,000 Million US dollars of the total handle!
(Or an average of $1,099,697 bet per race).

Still there are those who would like to besmirch the value or impact of HK racing and what it represents for players all over the world. I would say that HK is one of the few places in the world that still retains the original concept of this game as being portrayed as the “Sport of Kings”.

A concept that unfortunately has been a fairy tale in No. America for quite a while.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by menifee

Ok - what are those circumstances?

I've answered this question so many times that it's getting old, but in Hong Kong the government controls all gambling. The equivalent would be if you gave NYRA or Churchill or whoever control of all the casinos and lotteries in the United States. So Hong Kong has total control over all competition (in essence, there isn't any competition) and incredible resources at its disposal compared to any American racetracks or racing jurisdictions.

That's not to excuse any positives to racing there. They supposedly do a good job of keeping things clean. However, I will point out that the chief cheerleader for Hong Kong here, Nitro, claims he only bets based on toteboard action. So, for all of the wonderful, amazingly clean Hong Kong racing he always trumpets, he's STILL wagering based on insider moves and supposed conspiracies. Sounds wonderful.

[woodbinepmi]

Originally Posted by castaway01

I've answered this question so many times that it's getting old, but in Hong Kong the government controls all gambling. The equivalent would be if you gave NYRA or Churchill or whoever control of all the casinos and lotteries in the United States. So Hong Kong has total control over all competition (in essence, there isn't any competition) and incredible resources at its disposal compared to any American racetracks or racing jurisdictions.

That's not to excuse any positives to racing there. They supposedly do a good job of keeping things clean. However, I will point out that the chief cheerleader for Hong Kong here, Nitro, claims he only bets based on toteboard action. So, for all of the wonderful, amazingly clean Hong Kong racing he always trumpets, he's STILL wagering based on insider moves and supposed conspiracies. Sounds wonderful.

I don't think he's following 'supposed conspiracies' at all, he's following money that's put in from LARGE betting syndicates that put in millions of dollars into the pools.

[menifee]

Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR

HK handle looks to be stalling with the locals

Article says that handle was up 6.9% per race over the last year but down by -2% YOY before that. So over the last 2 seasons handle is only up about 5%

But HK have been aggressively commingling and allowing more and more countries to bet into their pools the last few years. So most if not all of this 5% rise in the last 2 years would be due to the new commingled bets coming from outside HK

Those betting from outside HK will slowly lose enthusiasm for the HK product as they get no rebate while HKJC pays 10% rebates to the locals

So this looks to be the peak for HK turnover. All downhill from here

I get rebates in the USA.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by woodbinepmi

I don't think he's following 'supposed conspiracies' at all, he's following money that's put in from LARGE betting syndicates that put in millions of dollars into the pools.

That may be true to some extent. And BTW, thanks for trying to offer some rationale as to why the tote analysis I use works so well. Honestly, I couldn’t accurately tell you the source of the money that’s being wagered and monitored.
For those like me, who take its significance as a “Given”, we really could care less about where it’s coming from. What’s more important is it’s flow: When and Where its going in to the various betting pools. Insinuating “Conspiracy theories” is a feeble explanation for underestimating the objectives and intent of those on the inside: The connections. Who BTW don’t often publicly reveal their intentions, but would rather “Let their money do their talking" as objective evidence of their confidence.

Originally Posted by castaway01

That's not to excuse any positives to racing there. They supposedly do a good job of keeping things clean.
However, I will point out that the chief cheerleader for Hong Kong here, Nitro, claims he only bets based on toteboard action. So, for all of the wonderful, amazingly clean Hong Kong racing he always trumpets, he's STILL wagering based on insider moves and supposed conspiracies. Sounds wonderful.

Correct. It is “wonderful” when you can often glean an inside track of potential contenders in a race!

Yet, you have to enjoy comments like these (At least I do); because it clearly demonstrates (once again) a complete lack of appreciation of the realities of the horse racing game from the perspective of the typical handicapper. I’m not going to pursue this very deeply, because it’s getting old.
However, I would enjoy reading a valid argument (from any credible source) as to how the handicapping methodology in general (Computerized or otherwise) can rationalize 2 very basic but critical aspects of the game from an Outsider’s perspective:
1) Could predict whether or not each and every entry in a race is actually going to make an attempt to Win it?
2) How all of the past performance data or statistical analysis can determine the current physical and mental well-being of each horse entered in a race?

Although I won’t take my response any further, you might want to consider what Bill Benter has personally stated. If you don’t recognize the name here’s a link:
http://www.worlds-greatest-gamblers....illiam-benter/
If you can’t respect his credibility, I assume you’re beyond his accomplishments and capabilities. So don't bother reading these excerpts:

Excerpts from: “Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems:” A Report by William Benter

INTRODUCTION
The question of whether a fully mechanical system can ever "beat the races" has been widely discussed in both the academic and popular literature. Certain authors have convincingly demonstrated that profitable wagering systems do exist for the races. The most well documented of these have generally been of the technical variety, that is, they are concerned mainly with the public odds, and do not attempt to predict horse performance from fundamental factors. Technical systems for place and show betting, (Ziemba and Hausch, 1987) and exotic pool betting, (Ziemba and Hausch,1986) as well as the 'odds movement' system developed by Asch and Quandt (1986), fall into this category. A benefit of these systems is that they require relatively little preparatory effort, and can be effectively employed by the occasional race goer.

The complexity of predicting horse performance makes the specification of an elegant handicapping model quite difficult. Ideally, each independent variable would capture a unique aspect of the influences effecting horse performance. In the author's experience, the trial and error method of adding independent variables to increase the model's goodness-of-fit, results in the model tending to become a hodgepodge of highly correlated variables whose individual significance's are difficult to determine and often counter-intuitive.

Additionally, there will always be a significant amount of 'inside information' in horse racing that cannot be readily included in a statistical model. Trainer's and jockey's intentions, secret workouts, whether the horse ate its breakfast, and the like, will be available to certain parties who will no doubt take advantage of it. Their betting will be reflected in the odds. This presents an obstacle to the model developer with access to published information only. For a statistical model to compete in this environment, it must make full use of the advantages of computer modeling, namely, the ability to make complex calculations on large data sets.

The odds set by the public betting yield a sophisticated estimate of the horses' win probabilities.

It can be presumed that valid fundamental information exists which can not be systematically or practically incorporated into a statistical model. Therefore, any statistical model, however well developed, will always be incomplete. An extremely important step in model development, and one that the author believes has been generally overlooked in the literature, is the estimation of the relation of the model's probability estimates to the public's estimates, and the adjustment of the model's estimates to incorporate whatever information can be gleaned from the public's estimates. The public's implied probability estimates generally correspond well with the actual frequencies of winning.

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