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Old 07-12-2016, 10:02 PM   #1
highnote
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S&P Prediction

Based on the models I use, I predict that by January 11, 2017 the S&P will rise to between $2350 to $2457.

That is a 10 to 15 percent gain.
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Old 07-12-2016, 10:24 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
Based on the models I use, I predict that by January 11, 2017 the S&P will rise to between $2350 to $2457.

That is a 10 to 15 percent gain.
Luv it, highnote. Just what this world needs: Traders with balls!

Maybe it will spawn into a “I predict” thread.

Next…
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Old 07-12-2016, 10:54 PM   #3
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DON'T FIGHT THE TAPE

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Luv it, highnote. Just what this world needs: Traders with balls!

Maybe it will spawn into a “I predict” thread.

Next…

Yesterday, I got my strongest momentum signal for a bull market.

The ratio of NYSE advancing stocks to declining stocks over a ten day period was greater than 2 to 1.

This is a very rare factor. It hasn't happened since March 2009 (It happened a couple months earlier in January 2009, but only hit 1.96 to 1). We know what has happened to the market since then. January 15, 2009 the S&P was at 843. Today it closed at new all-time high of 2137.

On average the market rises 15% over the following 6 months after this signal appears.

It happened 11 times from 1954 to 1991. The smallest gain was just under 10%. The largest was 39%.

I'm hedging my bets by saying 10-15 percent gain because the market has already risen 15% from the beginning of this short term bull market that began giving bull signals in the middle of February 2016 after having bottomed at 1851 on February 10.

Don't Fight The Tape!

The Trend Is Your Friend!
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Old 07-14-2016, 09:08 PM   #4
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The most recent round of bullishness began on June 28 when nyse up stocks outnumbered down stocks 9 to 1.

June 29 was also a 9 to 1 ratio.

July 8 was nearly 16 to 1!

Most days since June 28 have been in the range of 2 or 3 to 1 up stocks to down stocks, with only a couple of days where down stocks outnumbered up stocks.

The start of this bull market is the biggest one I've seen since the beginning of the March 2009 rally. The 2009 rally had a big spurt forward in July and another in September. That was a great year for stocks.

Last February's rally was pretty good, but not like this one.

Last October was bigger than February, but the market was very weak just before October. The difference today is that the market was already pretty strong and it got even stronger the past couple of weeks.

I don't know how long the current rally will last, but right now there is a lot of upward momentum. If you're not on the bandwagon then you better get out of the way or this train is going to roll right over you.

About the only thing that could stop it is a big interest rate hike.

I think it's safe to say this rally should last through the election. If Clinton wins the rally will probably continue because the regime will stay the same for the most part. Plus, the stock market traditionally does better under Democratic presidents than Republicans. I don't know why. You'd think the opposite would be true. But the research says otherwise.

If Trump gets elected then all bets are off. There would be a lot of changes in Washington and it's hard to say how the markets would react.

I'm not sure how to play the current market except to stay long. In 2009 there was a lot of uncertainty and the VIX was very high. It was a great time to be long and sell deep out of the money covered calls because there was so much easy premium to capture due to volatility.

Currently, the VIX is low at around 12 or 13. Not a lot of volatility, so not a lot of option premium on deep out of the money calls.

I did buy some YCS -- an ultra short yen fund. I expect the yen to get much weaker. Japan is printing money like crazy to try to weaken their currency so that their exports become cheaper for consumers in countries like the U.S. They are doing everything they can to inflate their way out of recession.

Last edited by highnote; 07-14-2016 at 09:14 PM.
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Old 07-14-2016, 09:25 PM   #5
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i like the prediction, but it will probably kill gold if that happens. i don't like the way silver has traded on this run up to over $20. the prediction is probably spot on or very close because of the interest rates throughout the world. negative interest rates are alive and well now.
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Old 07-14-2016, 10:03 PM   #6
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i like the prediction, but it will probably kill gold if that happens. i don't like the way silver has traded on this run up to over $20. the prediction is probably spot on or very close because of the interest rates throughout the world. negative interest rates are alive and well now.
Not sure about how it will affect gold. There is going to be a lot of inflation in the world. So I think gold and silver will still be valuable. I own Hecla Mining. Bought it at $1.50 somewhere around December. It is over $6 now.

I think it still has a lot of room to go up. I don't follow other gold and silver mining stocks, though. I've followed this one since I was kid back in the '70s.
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Old 12-09-2016, 11:13 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by highnote
Based on the models I use, I predict that by January 11, 2017 the S&P will rise to between $2350 to $2457.

That is a 10 to 15 percent gain.

100 more points to go to hit the low end of my estimate. S&P at 2250 today.
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Old 12-09-2016, 04:18 PM   #8
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100 more points to go to hit the low end of my estimate. S&P at 2250 today.
I would not be surprised if there was a small a reversal on Monday or Tuesday, but there is still enough momentum remaining that the market could continue higher into January.
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Old 12-12-2016, 12:27 PM   #9
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FOMC this week...I wouldn't expect any major moves between now and then...with that said, load up for a big move NOW!
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Old 12-12-2016, 02:08 PM   #10
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FOMC this week...I wouldn't expect any major moves between now and then...with that said, load up for a big move NOW!
I'm long volatility win or lose.
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Old 12-12-2016, 02:13 PM   #11
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The most expected rate raise in history. Most likely a non event.
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Old 05-14-2017, 06:50 PM   #12
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Based on the models I use, I predict that by January 11, 2017 the S&P will rise to between $2350 to $2457.

That is a 10 to 15 percent gain.
By January 11, 2017 the S&P had hit 2275 -- short of my target of 2350 on the low side and 2457 on the high side.

Now it is May 14, 2017 and the S&P closed at 2,390.90 on Friday, May 12.

My timing was off, but I had the direction right and the S&P has exceeded the low end of my prediction by 40 points.

The S&P actually hit my prediction of 2351 on February 17 -- about 5 weeks later than I predicted.

Overall, not too bad.

I'm still long on stocks, but remember the saying, "Sell in May and go away."

It's hard to say how much more this market can run to the upside. There has not been much volatility. In fact, the VIX hit its 4th lowest mark ever last week. The lowest was back in 1993. The other lows were in July 2005 and late November '06 and again in January '07. The latter two occurred close together, so I would consider January a continuation of November.

We know what happened during 2007-2009. Major recession.

Maybe this time will be different?
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Old 05-14-2017, 07:24 PM   #13
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For a good read on the economy go to seeking alpha and read fear & greed trader and Peter Miller.Not that their perfect but nothing they follow shows a recession any time soon. The one big wildcard is of course North Korea.
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Old 05-14-2017, 10:09 PM   #14
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Based on the models I use, I predict that by January 11, 2017 the S&P will rise to between $2350 to $2457.

That is a 10 to 15 percent gain.
Great prediction. The part I like is you actually have a basis for it and you're not just guessing and hoping. I remember the financial mood during the middle of last year which makes your prediction even better.

Last edited by whodoyoulike; 05-14-2017 at 10:10 PM.
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Old 05-14-2017, 11:07 PM   #15
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Great prediction. The part I like is you actually have a basis for it and you're not just guessing and hoping. I remember the financial mood during the middle of last year which makes your prediction even better.
Thanks. I wish I could make a good prediction for the next 3 to 6 months.

I bought shares in VIXY. It's an ETF that is supposed to track the VIX. I figure if the VIX reached its 4th lowest point since 1990 then it will most likely go up. I'm trying to sell call options against the VIXY shares I own. I have not been able to get a good price for them. So far, I haven't had any takers at my asking price. I figure the downside of the VIXY shares is small and the upside is larger -- asynchronous risk.

When the VIX goes up the market usually goes down. They are inversely related.

I don't have an estimate of how much the market can fall, or even if it will fall.

Interest rates are still historically low. Equities still give good returns with minor risks, although, now the risks are getting bigger and I'm not sure there are going to be enough returns to justify the risks.

It's a conundrum.
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