Songbird

[classhandicapper]

From me after the last race:

Even when they come back good, you often don't get any further development. Quite a few seem to mature earlier than their male counterparts.

I was a big defender of hers last year and still think she was better than some figure oriented handicappers thought (just not quite as good as the more seasoned and older Beholder at that stage). But I wasn't particularly impressed with this first race back. They left CA to avoid the tougher mares, this wasn't a particularly strong field, the race was not fast, and if anything, she was in the better path. She'll probably move forward, but she BETTER if she wants to beat some of the mares in CA.

I haven't changed my view. I think a pretty good case can be made that going 10F spotting weight is not an ideal set of conditions for her, but imo, this is not the same filly as last year so far.

I'm not basing that on her speed figures or her winning margins. I consider that stuff a byproduct of the race conditions/development and not necessarily indicative of ability. It's that she's even having trouble running away from horses with less early speed than the type she could cruise away from on the turn well within herself last year. So far, she's not as fast (I'm talking about turn of foot fast not speed figure fast) and she's not winning with much extra stamina and reserve energy in the tank. She's beating weaker horses on competitiveness.

A lot of fillies don't develop from 3 to 4 and some also go backwards. She may be one of the latter. We'll see if she goes forward.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

From me after the last race:



I haven't changed my view. I think a pretty good case can be made that going 10F spotting weight is not an ideal set of conditions for her, but imo, this is not the same filly as last year so far.

I'm not basing that on her speed figures or her winning margins. I consider that stuff a byproduct of the race conditions/development and not necessarily indicative of ability. It's that she's even having trouble running away from horses with less early speed than the type she could cruise away from on the turn well within herself last year. So far, she's not as fast (I'm talking about turn of foot fast not speed figure fast) and she's not winning with much extra stamina and reserve energy in the tank. She's beating weaker horses on competitiveness.

A lot of fillies don't develop from 3 to 4 and some also go backwards. She may be one of the latter. We'll see if she goes forward.

i couldn't agree more. usually the big improvements can come between 2-3. its not uncommon to see fillies regress when they become 4.

the people that manage that horse have a set of e yes and they might be thinking of retiring her now because it sure doesn't look like she could beat a legit grade 1 field now after yesterday.

[Bullet Plane]

It was surprising to find her in that deep against very minor league company.

Maybe she found the surface "cuppy."

[sour grapes]

i would skip the personal ensign,and forget about taking on males in the woodward.wouldnt be suprised to see her retired after this ordinary performance,even rachel couldnt improve after her 3yo season which was a much tougher campaign

[RunForTheRoses]

That was undoubtedly a disappointing performance and I agree withe the statements about development.
One thing I would like to throw in there is that Delaware is kind of a peculiar track. *Maybe* give her one more chance?

[BrentT]

One things for sure, he wont be retiring her.

A better option for the horse may be stay at home in California and see how she responds when not getting on an airplane to go cross country. That cross country shipping takes its toll on a horse.

[dilanesp]

Had they put the 127 or 128 on her that she deserved, she probably would have lost.

[Dahoss9698]

The funniest thing to me is the people up in arms by the opinion that Songbird might be a bit overrated.

She's really, really good....but some are calling her an all time great and I don't see that. Not when you compare her to past greats.

[Quesmark]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

The funniest thing to me is the people up in arms by the opinion that Songbird might be a bit overrated.

She's really, really good....but some are calling her an all time great and I don't see that. Not when you compare her to past greats.

Memories are short,for many the latest is the greatest,until the next one comes along...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

The funniest thing to me is the people up in arms by the opinion that Songbird might be a bit overrated.

She's really, really good....but some are calling her an all time great and I don't see that. Not when you compare her to past greats.

The only thing that ever bothers me about evaluations of top horses are the definitive opinions based on a single set of speed figures.

I think that misses the mark by a thousand miles.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The only thing that ever bothers me about evaluations of top horses are the definitive opinions based on a single set of speed figures.

I think that misses the mark by a thousand miles.

They aren't a bad starting point though.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

They aren't a bad starting point though.

The major problem is that if you consult Thorograph you will find allowance horses now that would blow away the best horses from the 80s (and most likely the 70s also).

If you consult Beyer figures they will tell you that those same horses from the 70s, 80s, and even 90s would blow away most of the Grade 1 horses today.

If you consult Ragozin, the best horses from each period look a little more level except for a blip faster from a few years back.

So how does one go about making comparisons of great horses and forming definitive opinions with figures when the disagreements are so extreme?

You can't. That's why it bothers me when people do.

I think a more realistic approach is to look at the accomplishments of the horses, who beat who, by how much, how consistently, with what trips, with a special appreciation for wins under extremely testing circumstances.

Lots of mediocre horses run really fast figures when the conditions are favorable and sometimes great horses don't run very fast when not required.

The truly great horses do extreme things when occasionally demanded and nothing else will get the job done. All others get exposed.

[devilsbag]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The major problem is that if you consult Thorograph you will find allowance horses now that would blow away the best horses from the 80s (and most likely the 70s also).

If you consult Beyer figures they will tell you that those same horses from the 70s, 80s, and even 90s would blow away most of the Grade 1 horses today.

If you consult Ragozin, the best horses from each period look a little more level except for a blip faster from a few years back.

In the 1980s, would have paid to see Andre the Giant taking on Beyer, Brown, and Ragozin in a Handicapper Handicap Match™.

[AltonKelsey]

Not to mention the advances in medical science, training, et al, that we've had over the last 40 years.

You really think the horses of old wouldn't have run differently given those changes in they way they'd be medicated and otherwise handled.

Maybe they'd be slower ....

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Not to mention the advances in medical science, training, et al, that we've had over the last 40 years.

You really think the horses of old wouldn't have run differently given those changes in they way they'd be medicated and otherwise handled.

Maybe they'd be slower ....

Exactly.

We have no way of controlling for drugs (legal and illegal), medical and training advances, changes in the composition and depth of the surfaces, synthetics, and other factors. We also see severe figure drift in opposite directions among the most competent and respected figure makers.

Heck, they can't even agree on the races this weekend.

So if someone comes to me and says horse "X" is definitively not a great filly because there were fillies 20-30 years ago running faster figures, I'm not going to take him seriously no matter what his reputation as a gambler and horse player.

There are no perfect standards for that kind of thing, but speed figures are probably among the worst. I'd way rather debate their records, trips, and what we've all seen.

IMO, Songbird was better than some of her figures indicated early last year and also slowly moved forward and demonstrated that. I don't think you need figures to see that Songbird has not picked up where she left off, let alone gotten better at 4. It remains to be seen if she will slowly recover her best form and improve, but a lot of times fillies do not.