horses are tired...so if you have a 10 horse field, and lets assume 6 horses have been claimed in the last few months, i am going to just guess that out of 6 horses, maybe 1 or 2 will overachieve..rest of them will just flop, maybe bad claims, horse going from a 25% trainer to 10% etc etc , and it is the last day of the meet, they are dumping horses. Trainer only had the horse for few weeks.
A horse that has been with the same trainer for a while, has a little emotional connection ...probably horse will be taken care of better and will probably run better..would you buy a car that has been sold 5 times in the last 5 years or a car that has been with the same owner for the last 5 years...same mileage
i prefer the car that had the same owner for the last 5 years, even though he is selling the car.
Last week of Oaklawn, i got lucky with this play..it was a number 2 horse, going out at good odds, always coming in 4th( think it was Kelly Von Hemel horse) going against bunch of claimed horses, all had superior speed numbers..race had lots of early speed, but those early speed horses had run 4-5 times already in the meet
all of them folded..IT is like a key horse in a tri or super, wheel around this horse.
2
Riqqa
Channing Hill
$32.40 $14.60 $9.80
1
Outrun the Posse
Walter De La Cruz
$36.00 $15.80
6
American Roma
Alex L. Canchari
$7.80
WINNING CONNECTIONS:
Owner: Brian K Hall
Trainer: Kelly K Von Hemel
Breeder: Shadwell Farm, LLC
