|
|
06-07-2017, 09:18 PM
|
#1
|
Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
|
2017 Belmont
I hope this finds you all doing well.
I am finalizing my top pick but I have decided to toss all those that raced in the KD and Preakness. I really felt if I was going to catch CE the Preakness was the play and as you all know he got beat late.
The issue I am debating is the Japanese horse coming from Dubai. History has shown these horses typically take longer to get over the trip, race, etc.
I am down to 3, Irish War Cry, J Boys Echo and Patch.
|
|
|
06-08-2017, 01:29 PM
|
#2
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
|
3 interesting horses that ran in the Preakness or Kentucky Derby
Multiplier - probably ran better than Lookin At Lee, but hit traffic late. More of a bottom tri/super contender than a win contender. Although Irad gives Lee a puncher's chance, much more value than his rival for similar scenarios.
Tapwrit - more efficient energy distribution than Gormley or Irish War Cry(and most/all others) in the Kentucky Derby. If allowed to patiently run his race, he can capitalize on anyone who falters.
Gormley - Used a lot of horse in the Kentucky Derby racing wide with the pace, in an inefficient manner. Possibility exists that Espinoza rides much more conservatively, and is able to get a 3rd or 4th in the Belmont.
------------------
Epicharis - this is a good solid horse. Unlike Thunder Snow, his form will translate to the United States. Have to respect him in your group of contenders. The fact that he hung a bit late in Dubai, and he draws wide, along with his low price make him likely to be a poor value win or place.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
06-08-2017, 02:00 PM
|
#3
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
|
looking at the energy distribution and the peak for 3 Belmont contenders who ran in the Kentucky Derby.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 06-08-2017 at 02:07 PM.
|
|
|
06-08-2017, 02:09 PM
|
#4
|
Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
3 interesting horses that ran in the Preakness or Kentucky Derby
Multiplier - probably ran better than Lookin At Lee, but hit traffic late. More of a bottom tri/super contender than a win contender. Although Irad gives Lee a puncher's chance, much more value than his rival for similar scenarios.
Tapwrit - more efficient energy distribution than Gormley or Irish War Cry(and most/all others) in the Kentucky Derby. If allowed to patiently run his race, he can capitalize on anyone who falters.
Gormley - Used a lot of horse in the Kentucky Derby racing wide with the pace, in an inefficient manner. Possibility exists that Espinoza rides much more conservatively, and is able to get a 3rd or 4th in the Belmont.
------------------
Epicharis - this is a good solid horse. Unlike Thunder Snow, his form will translate to the United States. Have to respect him in your group of contenders. The fact that he hung a bit late in Dubai, and he draws wide, along with his low price make him likely to be a poor value win or place.
|
Robert. thank you for your insight!!
|
|
|
06-08-2017, 03:29 PM
|
#5
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
|
no, thank you, Exalted One!
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
06-08-2017, 05:37 PM
|
#6
|
Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
no, thank you, Exalted One!
|
Brilliant, lol!!!!
|
|
|
06-08-2017, 11:59 PM
|
#7
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: North Texas
Posts: 86
|
Belmont Stakes
Here are my choices for the Belmont:
11 Epicharis
9 Mean Time
8 Senor Investment
7 Irish War Cry
Good luck to All. Have a Great day.
__________________
Analyzer
|
|
|
06-09-2017, 07:05 PM
|
#8
|
Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
|
Final Pick
Irish War Cry to win.
Good luck to all.
|
|
|
06-09-2017, 11:27 PM
|
#9
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Baystater
Posts: 3,436
|
Going with Gormley
Top 4 pace
Gormley 99
Meantime 92
IWC 88
Tapwrit 87
Top 4 speed
Gormley 104
IWC 99
Epicharis 99
Senior Investment 96
Multiplier 96
|
|
|
06-10-2017, 11:05 AM
|
#10
|
gelding
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 8,883
|
Current odds as of 11am:
1 Twisted Tom 7-1
2 Tapwrit 5-1
3 Gormley 9-1
4 J Boys Echo 10-1
5 Hollywood Handsome 18-1
6 Lookin At Lee 5-1
7 Irish War Cry 4-1
8 Senior Investment 6-1
9 Meantime 14-1
10 Multiplier 14-1
11 Epicharis SCRATCHED
12 Patch 11-1
|
|
|
06-10-2017, 11:22 AM
|
#11
|
Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by FantasticDan
Current odds as of 11am:
1 Twisted Tom 7-1
2 Tapwrit 5-1
3 Gormley 9-1
4 J Boys Echo 10-1
5 Hollywood Handsome 18-1
6 Lookin At Lee 5-1
7 Irish War Cry 4-1
8 Senior Investment 6-1
9 Meantime 14-1
10 Multiplier 14-1
11 Epicharis SCRATCHED
12 Patch 11-1
|
Interesting. Twisted Tom taking action. Hard to look past his breeding.
|
|
|
06-10-2017, 11:27 AM
|
#12
|
gelding
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 8,883
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
Interesting. Twisted Tom taking action. Hard to look past his breeding.
|
|
|
|
06-10-2017, 12:57 PM
|
#13
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
|
Twisted Tom was the value per ml, but NY money has been sharp this weekend, and it has also been overreacting to bad mls, and committing to that overreaction regardless of how the actual odds show up.
Just be happy that Patch(who may surprisingly land in the tri or super) is taking fan money.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
06-10-2017, 01:32 PM
|
#14
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: North Texas
Posts: 86
|
Belmont Stakes
Revised thoughts
12 Patch or 9 Mean Time
7 Irish War Cry
6 Looking at Lee
10 Multiplier
Good luck to All.
__________________
Analyzer
|
|
|
06-10-2017, 06:21 PM
|
#15
|
Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
|
Meantime
In the paddock? No shot!
|
|
|
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Rate This Thread |
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|