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05-22-2017, 06:14 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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on msw
if a MAY foal throws out a super first race, and is one of the fav next time out, i stay away from it. Jan/Feb foals at long odds good key horses on MSW races..
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05-22-2017, 06:43 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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Betting $2 dollars to $5
is more enjoyable than betting $100. So less pressure, and you can enjoy the race..Handicapping mind changes when dollar amount goes up you will start to think 100 different scenarios as the betting amount goes up.
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05-22-2017, 07:37 PM
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#18
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Top Horse Analytics
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 12,303
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Bet a grey/roan horse to win in a turf race if he/she is the only grey/roan. I'm going to run the numbers on this someday.
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05-22-2017, 08:39 PM
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#19
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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i don't do angles, but I'll play along for fun
- Claimed last time, by high% trainer(>20%)
- UP in class today
- between 2-1 and 5-1 today
- BET
- Claimed 2back, by low% trainer (<10%)
- Up in class Last Time
- Dropping Back down to original class(or thereabouts) Today
- between 2-1 and 5-1 today
- TOSS
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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05-22-2017, 11:03 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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how about a msw first race
from post 1 and it tanks , then it gets the post relief at much better odds next time out..young horses shy away from the rail
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05-23-2017, 04:27 PM
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#21
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmyb
Got this one from Andy Beyers Picking Winners:
Change of pace, especially with maidens.
Race 1 Showed early speed and quit.
Race 2 closed.
This can be reversed.
I've made some nice scores with this.
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in race 6 indiana coming up , interesting long shot
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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05-24-2017, 11:03 AM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Here's a retired friend's only angle at my OTB:
Horse was ITM 3rd race back, last two races out of the money. Odds 9-1 minimum, preferably last race finished within 8 beaten lengths, preferably both last two races. He wants last race to have been in a month more or less.
He sits likes a sphinx until he gets his odds. Seen him cash prices in the 60-100+ range. Will play wps if odds warrant it. He's a patient guy and has all his possible plays written in a notebook along with his Daily program.
He also uses this play for simulcast at Chile.
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Two potential plays in 3rd race at TDN-1M-5000N3L.
#5-Bold Mark 8-1ML, back in 8 days, won 3rd race back in Nov. High pct. Jock and Trainer, so I doubt we get 9-1, 2/14 lifetime.
#7-Canoe Club- 15-1 ML back in 11 days, 3rd in April, 10% jock and trainer is 0/5, but I don't know all the tdn trainers. Looks to be more of a sprinter, but back class much higher than this race. 2/29 lifetime.
Both out of the money last two races. Hopefully I'll see my buddy at OTB and ask his opinion.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 05-24-2017 at 11:04 AM.
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05-24-2017, 12:31 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Two potential plays in 3rd race at FL. 1M-5000N3L.
#5-Bold Mark 8-1ML, back in 8 days, won 3rd race back in Nov. High pct. Jock and Trainer, so I doubt we get 9-1, 2/14 lifetime.
#7-Canoe Club- 15-1 ML back in 11 days, 3rd in April, 10% jock and trainer is 0/5, but I don't know all the fl trainers. Looks to be more of a sprinter, but back class much higher than this race. 2/29 lifetime.
Both out of the money last two races. Hopefully I'll see my buddy at OTB and ask his opinion.
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Correction the above is 3rd race at Finger Lakes.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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05-24-2017, 03:56 PM
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#24
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Augenj
Bet a grey/roan horse to win in a turf race if he/she is the only grey/roan. I'm going to run the numbers on this someday.
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Today would be a good day.
I've heard of this angle for over 20 + years. And for some reason it seems to work but I've noticed especially for classy race horses. And, it didn't seem to matter whether on turf or dirt.
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05-24-2017, 04:56 PM
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#25
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Top Horse Analytics
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 12,303
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
Today would be a good day.
I've heard of this angle for over 20 + years. And for some reason it seems to work but I've noticed especially for classy race horses. And, it didn't seem to matter whether on turf or dirt.
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I never heard of it before but noticed it on my own. Like I said earlier, the numbers are going to prove it right or wrong.
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05-24-2017, 05:14 PM
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#26
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Registered Loser
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 2,633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Augenj
Bet a grey/roan horse to win in a turf race if he/she is the only grey/roan. I'm going to run the numbers on this someday.
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I used to know an old guy who played only grey/roan horses. He joked that the other horses thought that they were ghosts and let them pass !
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05-24-2017, 06:23 PM
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#27
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Top Horse Analytics
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 12,303
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jk3521
I used to know an old guy who played only grey/roan horses. He joked that the other horses thought that they were ghosts and let them pass !
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I don't think they had a choice if it was Tapit or his progeny.
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05-24-2017, 10:25 PM
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#28
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,861
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1. Third off a layoff, back figs can win this race.
Showed some improvement in the second race, or jockey change to a better rider, or class drop.
2. 3yo who just made a big move ahead to pair it up or mobe a little more ahead., or 3yo who just equalled or passed his 2yo top fig
3. Cut back in distance, especially if old sprint figs are good enough to win today.
4. Comes out of a very fast paced race.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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05-25-2017, 01:06 AM
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#29
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Mamma Kimbo
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 435
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always
analyze race flow horse up close to a C ranked race in the DRF
__________________
briswizz
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05-25-2017, 05:07 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Here's a retired friend's only angle at my OTB:
Horse was ITM 3rd race back, last two races out of the money. Odds 9-1 minimum, preferably last race finished within 8 beaten lengths, preferably both last two races. He wants last race to have been in a month more or less.
He sits likes a sphinx until he gets his odds. Seen him cash prices in the 60-100+ range. Will play wps if odds warrant it. He's a patient guy and has all his possible plays written in a notebook along with his Daily program.
He also uses this play for simulcast at Chile.
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Calling this one, Bob's Angle. Played one today in GP's 5th race, see Nitro's thread on selections. #5 Banco Dinero, 12-1 ML Won Big by 5L's, paid $20.80-9.40-5.20 horse was 3rd three races back at 16K, today's race at 10K, last two races his BL's were 6 & 2-1/4. Last race was 22 days ago, with a 3f blowout 5 days ago and 5f. work 12 days ago. My buddy wasn't there unfortunately.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=138629 Post #2
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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