Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
I'm curious, this is directed at those of you who keep a list of horses to watch, such as on the drf.com website, where you can be notified if the horse is entered...
Do you automatically bet the horse next time out?
Or do you handicap the race and decide whether the horse is worth a bet in that field?
I'm wondering how many of you think that keeping a watch list is a good thing.
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Posting this in the hope that some of you may find it useful, though this exercise was conducted in India where the racing is conducted only on the turf.
About five years ago, I had conducted a public experiment with a list of follow horses. The follow horses were picked up based on what pace patterns and striding patterns they did when running a race, so you can call it a form of Trip Handicapping.
To make the experiment credible, ALL rules were laid down BEFORE the season (Bangalore SUMMER season of 2012) began.
No doubt, the sample was too small to be treated as statistically significant. But the findings of this small experiment were interesting:
1. Betting ALL automatic choices, for WIN, was clearly a losing proposition.
2. Even bets "recommended" by the system, after "adding an extra layer of decision making" to automatic choices
lost 85% of the capital (starting with 5% of bankroll as first bet).
3. However, starting with the same 5% of the bankroll,
when ALL "automatic" choices were blindly bet, without exception, in the SHOW* pool, it resulted in 56 percent profit.
*Please note that what you call SHOW pool in the U.S. is called a PLACE pool in my country.
Below some links to the experiment and its findings:
The Concept
FAQ's
Insights
