Trip Handicapping - Watch List

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by EasyGoer89

any thoughts on the 1 running a 70 beyer 2 back while all his other numbers are 50 ish and lower? seems like an out of place number, he's got nothing in his career that suggests he can run anything close to a 70.

I think that was a product of the slop and the trip. Was able to break first, then as PPS 6 n 7 moved up to lead, this tiny little guy was able to relax in the pocket (rail was very good that day, despite the slop) and finished full of energy in suck up fashion.

I see this cute little guy sending inside or sitting pocket with the winner as his company.

If the 6 is choked out to death, then he has a shot as I see the 4 jumping up and down in the lane going nowhere but playing BUNNY HOP

[appistappis]

Originally Posted by appistappis

try again today at indiana

ran 3rd at 77-1 after a bad start again.....got a good pay day but 2nd would have been huge.

[EMD4ME]

Official Pick, the 6. Wire to wire or worst case, 1st over to wire.

I'm a pick 5 player, so, the 2 will be a weak B type (bred for dirt on dam's side, connections aren't stupid, so not a good sign that they dropped to a mdcler before trying dirt).

3 was is the "stayer" in the race. Was scratched from a Parx MDCL route on Sunday for this. Will mostly use him supers underneath BUT will use as a C in case the 6 doesn't fire AND the race somewhat collapses.

Leaning heavily on the 6 here. Hate the 4. Not a race I am in love with BUT it's a good example to use of visual capping. The 4 will be a career loser, unless some supertrainer teaches him to run forward, not up and down like a bunny rabbit.

[EMD4ME]

Didn't work the rest of the field yet BUT....

Race 4 today.

The 10. Crazy about jazz. Solid angles working here.

Clement had 2 horses in this runner's 1st start. His entrymate wired the field. HHHMMMMMMM......

Guess who broke 1st and was choked out to ultimate death to avoid "going".......

This horse. Was given an education, being stuffed down to the pocket, was rank early. No room till the 1/8 pole, by then, she lost her burst. Finished evenly to photo for 2nd with a key horse (71Beyer winner at PRX).

By Big Brown. Dam was 1/2 on Turf. She had just 1 other foal who was 1/2 on Turf, sprinting and won $53K.

Live contender in here.

[EMD4ME]

Other contenders have holes (most of them).

The 11 was a supposed lock in his last race, regressed off the claim. Can he bounce back with a nice stalking trip OFF another claim?

The 2 always finds a way to lose. Not in love.

The 3 is bred well on the dams side. Could use despite not having a hot FTS trainer.

The 4 is solid. Is a must use an A.

The 9, to me is a trap. Not in love at all.


The 1 is Clement's other but I don't think is the well meant one.


10 is the official pick if betting to win. In picks using the 41011 as A's. 1&3 as B's. 29 as C's. Boxing some exactas (weighed out) and betting the 10 to win.

[Robert Fischer]

agree with you /race1
I also think the 2 azarel is somewhat interesting as a single-race longshot add. Horse only has 1 run. Gallardo is used to 1 short run @PID. Alvarado does a great job in general of getting a balanced trip, but I'm hoping Gallardo can do a little bit better at obtaining a good position after the break, and then waiting/sucking-up. Irad really should attempt to wire the field with the giraffe. Most likely, the 1, or maybe your 6 will set the pace.

race4/ agree w/ 10. I actually think both chads are OK here - 4Lily may have taken a step forward last time even on the dirt. Visibly she looked good to me. Should have a lot of horse on the grass with a decent trip. 2conquesthanger-I respect that Dubb claimed the horse back w/ chad's blessing for 75. She's a money-burner who we should all be allergic to, but she's a legit contender, and you've got the decent pace figs combined with the connections business decisions. Guessing we see the 2 as the pressing speed entry, and the 4 as the closer.

race2/ I don't have the Nevin horse as highly regarded as the ml. For the most part the rest of the field is obvious. Only thing i have to add is that i have 6Sauvignon and/or 8Coramoss in the mix with the contenders.

[EMD4ME]

$8 on a horse who should have been 1/2.

That's value to say the least.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Wish I had read this before making my pick 5 bet. Really struggled with a ticket because of the fourth. The Chad Brown just reeked of being a little better and winding up getting bombed on the tote and suddenly looking that much better, but I thought that on paper there were a handful that had enough of a shot that I didn't really know what to do. And your ten was one of the primary ones. Initially was going to use at least three and figure that beating Brown was a big score, but couldn't cut elsewhere properly and still have the ticket work as win if everything went wrong and the favorite won the first and the Brown did win the fourth and nothing good popper in the others. So eventually I decided that though he might be a bit of a heavy favorite at post time, he didn't seem like the type that would be that heavily represented in the pick 5 so just said screw it and singled him rather than eat into what profit there is from using him and then a few that I'm scared of. Now I know I screwed up and this ten will beat me and it will pay lovely.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

The 2nd race looks like a good 'horseplayer's race'.

My picks are a lot different than the morning line rankings.

I agree. I am spread here with extra money on the 11.

I have to say, I marked the 12 down for 2nd out. Never put him in my stable mail. Was extremely annoyed to see he won at the Mudd Lands last out.

He had a nice BURST at the 3/16 and was the only closer in that weak field. If there is a surprising pace battle here WITH FAR TURN FLOW (very unlikely at NYRA, I know) the 12 can POP at balloons over these losers.

At 30/1, he's worth a stab.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

$8 on a horse who should have been 1/2.

That's value to say the least.

[EasyGoer89]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

$8 on a horse who should have been 1/2.

That's value to say the least.

Couldn't agree more amazing that the 2nd most likely winner is 2/5 you rarely see that.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by EasyGoer89

Couldn't agree more amazing that the 2nd most likely winner is 2/5 you rarely see that.

I'd rather bet these types vs 15/1 shots who go off 30/1.

You can crush em, as they are the best in the race and keep the wheels spinning.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I'd rather bet these types vs 15/1 shots who go off 30/1.

You can crush em, as they are the best in the race and keep the wheels spinning.

Throwing out winners for the 3rd?

[rsetup]

Rudy

[EMD4ME]

This is a NICE exacta and LET's GET A PRICE IN RACE 5 home.

Clement Clement 1-2.

Have all in pick 4 and pick 5 to close.

Y'all might think I'm nuts but I truly believe the 6 has a shot in race 6. Had to use the 245, so I figured what the hell, close with all, don't leave 2 out.