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10-16-2016, 10:09 AM
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#46
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Today , in the third race at Belmont
Notes: Sicilia Mike- "Mediocre horse, suck-up trip, wrong lead."
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Yes, I agree. He followed the winner's inside flow and rallied with the flow late. That field was not that great, at all.
BUT....
The one thing that makes me pause about hating Sicilia Mike is the horse changed leads 10 yards out, the 3 had gotten past him right after the wire but the horse galloped out AHEAD of everyone after his lead change.
Plus, this horse has a nice sprint engine and looked to need 1 in the paddock.
At 3/1 I hate this horse but is a must use in the picks as any horse with energy and a green first run (leads) can improve. I just hate to bet them at a short price.
Last edited by EMD4ME; 10-16-2016 at 10:10 AM.
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10-16-2016, 10:18 AM
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#47
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Conquest Prankster was pressed by a jockeyless horse in his last race. The running line makes him look loose.
That's the hidden stuff, I love to find 
Not saying I'm betting Conquest Prankster but since we're discussing today's 3rd Race, I figured I'd throw that out there
I also give the riderless FTS credit. Dumped the jock, carried no weight BUT ran so intelligently. Moved up to share, dueled in between, changed leads perfectly....At least gets points for being so intelligent.  
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10-16-2016, 10:55 AM
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#48
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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How ironic..........
As you guys discussed a recent race, a Michelle Nevin FTS won it at a huge price.
Deja Vu time?
This is not a race where I'd like to go out on a limb BUT since it's on topic, if I had a gun to my head, my play is the 12 at a huge price. The 12 worked in co (beaten 1 length) to that recent bomb winner.
In the pick 5/pick 4, it is obviously a race to spread. Must at least use (besides the 12) the 2&4 as well besides the 1&5.
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10-16-2016, 11:13 AM
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#49
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EMD4ME
Yes, I agree. He followed the winner's inside flow and rallied with the flow late. That field was not that great, at all.
BUT....
The one thing that makes me pause about hating Sicilia Mike is the horse changed leads 10 yards out, the 3 had gotten past him right after the wire but the horse galloped out AHEAD of everyone after his lead change.
Plus, this horse has a nice sprint engine and looked to need 1 in the paddock.
At 3/1 I hate this horse but is a must use in the picks as any horse with energy and a green first run (leads) can improve. I just hate to bet them at a short price.
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-Interesting.
Going to have to re-watch.
-With you on CP(was it Lezcano? aboard) /riderless in that race that a much the best BigStuff, or whatever his name was bulled through late (notes: "CP - 'mediocre'.").
EDIT-kind of funny that Lezcano did such a great job at taking the initiative with Conquest Prankster, and then demonstrably froze the field by starring at the loose horse, then used the loose horse to the best of his advantage... Now that they have the pretty running line, Casse gets Johnny V aboard , and lezcano rides Sicilian Mike..
Deja vu, indeed
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 10-16-2016 at 11:21 AM.
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10-16-2016, 02:15 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EMD4ME
Yes, I agree. He followed the winner's inside flow and rallied with the flow late. That field was not that great, at all.
BUT....
The one thing that makes me pause about hating Sicilia Mike is the horse changed leads 10 yards out, the 3 had gotten past him right after the wire but the horse galloped out AHEAD of everyone after his lead change.
Plus, this horse has a nice sprint engine and looked to need 1 in the paddock.
At 3/1 I hate this horse but is a must use in the picks as any horse with energy and a green first run (leads) can improve. I just hate to bet them at a short price.
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Do you think this horse was really green or was he getting off a sore knee or ankle or some other problem making him prefer to lead with his good leg?
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10-16-2016, 02:20 PM
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#51
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by green80
Do you think this horse was really green or was he getting off a sore knee or ankle or some other problem making him prefer to lead with his good leg?
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Could be either but as a handicapper, I know it creates doubt, which caused me to use 5 A's in race 3. The 124512.
Got the 2nd biggest of the 5.
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10-16-2016, 06:35 PM
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#52
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Tough day today, for refined handicapping. Today went to the contrarians.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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10-16-2016, 06:42 PM
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#53
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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That makes it a good day buddy!
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10-19-2016, 01:05 PM
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#54
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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I have a negative trip note for BEL r4
 Too Wild To Repent = "rushed up, strong effort, fell after wire, trampled"
This horse could win with his 'A' race and a good trip, but tough to take a horse like that. He'll have to beat me today.
Strange race4 w/ two horses who fell last start - Also  Zen Papa.
looked like he may have been a smart horse who actually 'dumped' the jock on an exhausting effort.
somewhat unique situation
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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10-21-2016, 12:52 PM
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#55
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Race 4 today (positive trip note)
Hotfoot - "bumped, in-tight w/ rail"
This wasn't really significant to me on the turf, because horses like Piazza Del Campo have already shown they can press him into submission. However, with the race coming off-the-turf, Hotfoot could get a much cleaner trip. He's already been dismissed by most handicappers.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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10-25-2016, 12:29 PM
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#56
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longshot kick de bucket
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: niagara falls ont.
Posts: 1,218
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ultracapper
Makes for an interesting development.
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try again today at indiana
__________________
let the fools have their tar tar sauce.
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10-25-2016, 02:09 PM
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#57
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Tree Top Lover-Big Giraffe of a horse. Seems to mostly threaten and then those BIG loping doofy strides take over in the lane, meaning he simply goes up and down, never grabbing the ground and bursting forward in the lane.
Running tomorrow in race 1 at Belmont. 7/5 ML fave. I need to look at the rest of the field BUT I am already intrigued with this race as I would like to bet against this ML fav. Be back later, after I dissect this specific field.
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10-25-2016, 02:20 PM
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#58
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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As of now, without finishing all work, it looks like the 6 is the solid single. Very passive ride in last, might've not liked slop as well.
Blinkers ON. controls race stalking the 1 (if 1 goes gung ho from the rail) or clears and wires.
BTW, take a look at the 1 (in replays). What a cute little midget....He takes 3 strides for every 1 of the 4 . That horse is shorter than a teddy bear...How cute....
After I work the whole race, I'll give a formal opinion.
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10-25-2016, 04:22 PM
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#59
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Charm school graduate
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 1,902
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EMD4ME
As of now, without finishing all work, it looks like the 6 is the solid single. Very passive ride in last, might've not liked slop as well.
Blinkers ON. controls race stalking the 1 (if 1 goes gung ho from the rail) or clears and wires.
BTW, take a look at the 1 (in replays). What a cute little midget....He takes 3 strides for every 1 of the 4 . That horse is shorter than a teddy bear...How cute....
After I work the whole race, I'll give a formal opinion. |
any thoughts on the 1 running a 70 beyer 2 back while all his other numbers are 50 ish and lower? seems like an out of place number, he's got nothing in his career that suggests he can run anything close to a 70.
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10-25-2016, 05:55 PM
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#60
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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The 2nd race looks like a good 'horseplayer's race'.
My picks are a lot different than the morning line rankings.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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