View Poll Results: Odds lines -- How do you do?
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Never consider them
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16 |
15.84% |
Rarely consider them
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10 |
9.90% |
Take them with a grain of salt
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47 |
46.53% |
Faithfully follow them and may use a fudge factor
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28 |
27.72% |
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05-26-2014, 06:38 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Let's say we have a horse we believe is worth 3/1 odds (prob 1/4). Let's say we use a 50% fudge factor, prob 1/6 or 5/1 odd. But now just consider if the connections are going to try today. This happens a lot. May we say a prob 1/4 that they won't try today. If we were right with odds of 3/1, now we must factor this in, prob 3/4 (he'll run) * 1/4 (his assumed value) equals 3/16 or about 5.33/1. We out ran our fudge factor on this alone.
And given the who made the odds line does really work either. That's a tautological argument saying if he's good he's good. Nothing is proven by this. Some line makers do excellent jobs picking winners. But making money on these odds lines is next to impossible because of the necessary fudge factors and getting the odds leftover from the best handicapper, the public.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
Last edited by Capper Al; 05-26-2014 at 06:41 PM.
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05-26-2014, 07:27 PM
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#17
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
Let's say we have a horse we believe is worth 3/1 odds (prob 1/4). Let's say we use a 50% fudge factor, prob 1/6 or 5/1 odd. But now just consider if the connections are going to try today. This happens a lot. May we say a prob 1/4 that they won't try today. If we were right with odds of 3/1, now we must factor this in, prob 3/4 (he'll run) * 1/4 (his assumed value) equals 3/16 or about 5.33/1. We out ran our fudge factor on this alone.
And given the who made the odds line does really work either. That's a tautological argument saying if he's good he's good. Nothing is proven by this. Some line makers do excellent jobs picking winners. But making money on these odds lines is next to impossible because of the necessary fudge factors and getting the odds leftover from the best handicapper, the public.
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Yes, the public is more collectively accurate than any individual handicapper at setting odds on a cumulative, race-in/race-out basis. But that doesn't mean that it is not also capable of regularly making significant misjudgments about individual horses or combinations of horses in specific races on any given day.
Even though the public does indeed get the "first crack" at setting a horse's odds, leaving only the "leftovers" (as you put it) for handicappers, the handicapper (unlike the public) is not obligated to bet on any given race, but can wait until one of those misjudgments by the public offers a sufficient return to compensate the handicapper for the risk of challenging the public's collective wisdom. And a fair-odds line is one of the means that a handicapper can use in making those go/no-go betting decisions.
Last edited by Overlay; 05-26-2014 at 07:33 PM.
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05-26-2014, 07:32 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by therussmeister
Indeed it is easy to account for racing luck in an odds line.
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How do you do that?
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05-27-2014, 09:29 AM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 217
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Not all odds lines are created equally, nor do they serve the same goal.
One of the most interesting comments I read on this board was TM's post on oddslines.
TM suggested that "odds smoothing" as done by the most is not necessarily the best approach, if the goal is to maximize profits. TM instead suggested setting an odds term as the opposite of public confidence (as suggested by tote odds). By doing so, we are looking for those horse we have a high confidence of winning that will also pay high odds with a low public confidence of winning.
Thomas Sapio
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05-27-2014, 11:14 AM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sapio
Not all odds lines are created equally, nor do they serve the same goal.
One of the most interesting comments I read on this board was TM's post on oddslines.
TM suggested that "odds smoothing" as done by the most is not necessarily the best approach, if the goal is to maximize profits. TM instead suggested setting an odds term as the opposite of public confidence (as suggested by tote odds). By doing so, we are looking for those horse we have a high confidence of winning that will also pay high odds with a low public confidence of winning.
Thomas Sapio
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Those who love their morning lines will claim that they are doing this. The idea of confidence in a statistical sense is not a bad one to play around with. The public's confidence is expressed in the tote board.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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05-27-2014, 11:42 AM
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#21
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sapio
Not all odds lines are created equally, nor do they serve the same goal.
One of the most interesting comments I read on this board was TM's post on oddslines.
TM suggested that "odds smoothing" as done by the most is not necessarily the best approach, if the goal is to maximize profits. TM instead suggested setting an odds term as the opposite of public confidence (as suggested by tote odds). By doing so, we are looking for those horse we have a high confidence of winning that will also pay high odds with a low public confidence of winning.
Thomas Sapio
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Can you provide a real world example of what that would look like?
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05-27-2014, 12:44 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Doesn't the DRF make their own odds line? It's been a while since I played around there. If not, there are plenty of odds lines available especially with software products that produce their own.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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05-27-2014, 12:55 PM
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#23
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
Doesn't the DRF make their own odds line? It's been a while since I played around there. If not, there are plenty of odds lines available especially with software products that produce their own.
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I was only referring to Sapio's/TM's subject specifically.
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05-27-2014, 01:10 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 389
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Odds lines will vary drastically between players depending upon what factors are considered. An odds line that is tilted towards previous trips will be very different than one based upon speed figures, yet they both can be profitably.
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05-27-2014, 02:37 PM
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#25
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Scum Bum!
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 1,889
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
I agree with Mike, the value of a line is in its accuracy. That being said, I don't trust anyone else, and I can't make a line that is accurate enough to bet on. So, I don't use odds lines at all, at least until the day I can make one that is accurate enough to produce long term profit.
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Exactly..while it is interesting too see what one guy's opinion is of how the race will be bet, i don't let it effect me...at all.
If the public is ignoring my horse at 15-1 I'm loving life, and not concerned about the masses not being in agreement.
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05-27-2014, 08:20 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: route 66
Posts: 1,112
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The odds in horse racing are presented in such a way that people can't really recognize the value. The only way to cut through that fog is to program the necessary calculations. These calculations are pretty basic. No rocket science. I programmed the different elements of the lines question into my program. That way you only have to think it all the way through just once, instead of for every race. The program calculates my line and my overlay. I don't see how value could be recognized otherwise.
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05-27-2014, 09:15 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,992
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An odds line is basically a mathematical assessment of your opinion. Theoretically every one makes an odds line in one way or another. You love the 3 in the 3rd race. Do you love him at 1-9(well maybe not), 3-5, sound about right, but maybe you will just key him in pick 3's, trifectas and exactas, or 6-5 HELLO, TIME TO UNLOAD. You just made an odds line. The difference between what you did and what someone who actually make an odds line does, is you just have a feel for what a horse you really like should pay(might be right, might be wrong, just like the person who makes an oddsline), where as someone creating an odds line has to go through each horse and say 1 is 15-1 and 2 is 20-1 and 3 is 6-1.....and this line needs to be set to 100% probability. Anyone who makes odds lines knows that there are many times that you put down your price add every thing up and come up with 120% and not 100%(at least back when they had field sizes of over 10). Now it is time to adjust upwards across the board. Now look how off you were and there would have been to be a lot of perceived value in that race that was not really there. Making an odds line also forces you to really look at every horse. You have to assign a fair price. In doing so you will see things you might not have seen when you just drew a line through him at initial inspection. Now I understand it doesn't work for a lot of people and they do better without one, and for them I can only suggest keep doing what works. It seems that it is a challenge for many to identify whether the 7 should be 18-1 fair value, 25-1 value or 50-1 fair value(this makes no sense to me because it is no different skill set than saying your top choice is worth 2-1 or 5-2. So either it is a skill you work on and improve, or you give it up and look for another approach. There are many horses that require too much guess work. You may label him a 15-1 shot(was once good, 8 month layoff...), but when you see him at 34-1 as they are approaching the gate, you realize that maybe you should have made him 30-1 or even 50-1. However if he opens at 3-1 and is 9/2 as they are approaching the gate, time to adjust your line the other way. These situations create inaccuracies, but these inaccuracies can be fixed. You can use a spreadsheet to change your line on certain horses you made a mistake on and fix your line on the rest. Your not selling your odds line. Your not publishing it on the web. Your simply giving your opinion on each horse for yourself to see and for yourself to identify value (you don't even have to only bet value if that is your issue-focus on top contenders that are not undervalued). If your top choice that you made 2-1 is 6/5, probably not a great bet keying him in the exotics, but if his is 9/5 or 2-1, nothing wrong with it(you can extract the value in the exotics hopefully).
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05-27-2014, 09:33 PM
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#28
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Horse
The odds in horse racing are presented in such a way that people can't really recognize the value. The only way to cut through that fog is to program the necessary calculations. These calculations are pretty basic. No rocket science. I programmed the different elements of the lines question into my program. That way you only have to think it all the way through just once, instead of for every race. The program calculates my line and my overlay. I don't see how value could be recognized otherwise.
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That's fine, as long as you can program, exactly, the handicapping calculations and steps, for each and every type of race you encounter, or like to play. However, if you are like me, I do not always use the same exact steps or calculations, or factors, for each and every race type that I play. If, for example, you only used the Prime Power number, then creating an odds line would be a snap, or if you only use the last speed figure or best speed figure, or best 2 of the last 4, etc., again that would be a snap. Unfortunately, the way I attack races can vary almost infinitely, depending on the type of race it is.
I have never found a combination of factors to adequately address a "good" odds line. And I have never been able to program a decision tree that is complex enough to encompass every possible race type that I play. It just gets too complex.
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05-27-2014, 09:52 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: massapequa park ny
Posts: 2,164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
An odds line is basically a mathematical assessment of your opinion. Theoretically every one makes an odds line in one way or another. You love the 3 in the 3rd race. Do you love him at 1-9(well maybe not), 3-5, sound about right, but maybe you will just key him in pick 3's, trifectas and exactas, or 6-5 HELLO, TIME TO UNLOAD. You just made an odds line. The difference between what you did and what someone who actually make an odds line does, is you just have a feel for what a horse you really like should pay(might be right, might be wrong, just like the person who makes an oddsline), where as someone creating an odds line has to go through each horse and say 1 is 15-1 and 2 is 20-1 and 3 is 6-1.....and this line needs to be set to 100% probability. Anyone who makes odds lines knows that there are many times that you put down your price add every thing up and come up with 120% and not 100%(at least back when they had field sizes of over 10). Now it is time to adjust upwards across the board. Now look how off you were and there would have been to be a lot of perceived value in that race that was not really there. Making an odds line also forces you to really look at every horse. You have to assign a fair price. In doing so you will see things you might not have seen when you just drew a line through him at initial inspection. Now I understand it doesn't work for a lot of people and they do better without one, and for them I can only suggest keep doing what works. It seems that it is a challenge for many to identify whether the 7 should be 18-1 fair value, 25-1 value or 50-1 fair value(this makes no sense to me because it is no different skill set than saying your top choice is worth 2-1 or 5-2. So either it is a skill you work on and improve, or you give it up and look for another approach. There are many horses that require too much guess work. You may label him a 15-1 shot(was once good, 8 month layoff...), but when you see him at 34-1 as they are approaching the gate, you realize that maybe you should have made him 30-1 or even 50-1. However if he opens at 3-1 and is 9/2 as they are approaching the gate, time to adjust your line the other way. These situations create inaccuracies, but these inaccuracies can be fixed. You can use a spreadsheet to change your line on certain horses you made a mistake on and fix your line on the rest. Your not selling your odds line. Your not publishing it on the web. Your simply giving your opinion on each horse for yourself to see and for yourself to identify value (you don't even have to only bet value if that is your issue-focus on top contenders that are not undervalued). If your top choice that you made 2-1 is 6/5, probably not a great bet keying him in the exotics, but if his is 9/5 or 2-1, nothing wrong with it(you can extract the value in the exotics hopefully).
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totally agree ... i just have a sense of what odds i would play my contenders.Sometimes when odds are right i'll make 2 win bets.Usually i need 8/5 or better otherwise i pass when i feel the favorite is legit
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05-28-2014, 06:15 AM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
I have never found a combination of factors to adequately address a "good" odds line. And I have never been able to program a decision tree that is complex enough to encompass every possible race type that I play. It just gets too complex.
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If you distinguish so many types of races and approach every type differently, how do you estimate you success for every type? It takes quite a few bets to get statistically significant estimate.
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