Electric Cars - the costs & the math

[chadk66]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I think you underestimate the American public and their fascination with cars and technology.

I had absolutely no reason to trade my 7 yr old truck, but found out the 2018 model will come standard with a boatload of safety features. I've already contacted a Toyota dealer I have a business relationship with.......I'll get one of the first ones.

These self stopping cars and other features are going to save many many lives. This makes them even more desirable

exactly. and that is why people continue to buy diesel pickups all the time. they keep cranking up the horsepower and people have to have em. Dodges new 18' has like 600 hp and 1000 ft lbs of torque. Or somewhere close to that. insane. I used to pull my six horse all steel horse trailer with a 6.9 diesel at 130 hp. and it pulled it just fine.

[menifee]

I think for most people a car is simply a way to get from point A to point B. Cars are a waste of money.

There will always be those that will want the newest toy, but they will be able to ride in them as there will be ride share services that would appeal to certain clientele by offering the latest and best cars. The economics of self driving cars will be so strong that it would be extremely unwise to own your own vehicle.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by chadk66

Bakken production was tailing off because the price for oil was too low. ND is now back over a million barrels a day again and the production is going up near daily. Cost to extract bakken oil has been reduced by about 33% over the last two years. Lease operating costs have come down nearly 50% too over the last two years. When people that don't understand how the oil field works start talking about it they just look stupid. And are usually at least a couple years behind on their figures. When the bakken was first being drilled heavily (05-07) they could only extract roughly 5% of the oil with the current technology. We are now somewhere in the 30% range and that continues to go up. And for some odd reason nobody talks about the Three Forks which is nearly as big. There are also some test drillings going on in some other reserves here to check out some new technologies for their extraction. We have around 60 rigs drilling right now and at the peak of the boom here we had 220. So with 60 rigs we are able to stay at/over 1 million barrels a day. where do you think we'd be if we were running 220? Economics drives it all. If oil prices are up, production will be up. Peak oil has been proven to be a complete myth contrived by some clown(s). The industry just laughs at it lol.

You fail to mention the short life expectancy of "tight oil" wells. The fracking rigs are much different than conventional wells. My grandparents' farm north of Minot still has four active wells that were drilled back in the early '70s, but the new shale wells are tapping out fast. There is an uptick to the Bakkan per the chart in this article, but the "shale play" is for the most part way over-hyped, trying to get investment dollars to get maintain cash flow. The magnitude of the shale fields is dwarfed by the conventional ones in Texas and the Middle East. EROI keeps getting lower, and of course there is the environmental impact with some of the tight oil fields.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Price...aggerated.html

Peak oil a myth? Really? Reserve numbers, economy and prices, technology, etc., are all moving when trying to model how soon we're tapped as a planet, but it's still a finite resource. Since I'm anticipating the decline of the American Empire to continue, which will include the petro dollar being displaced, being the country with the 10th largest known reserves means the U.S. is in for some rocky times - media propaganda, and oil industry propaganda, not withstanding.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

...Park view is living in the past. Here in Texas they announced a few months back that they have discovered enough oil and Nat. Gas to feed the entire planet for thirty years......Halliburton is expanding into that same discovery at a million a week and still hiring

Living in the past? I've been accused of worse. As irony would have it, though, many of us are going to get a chance to "live in the past". Maybe we do have 20 years, 30 years, or even 50 or 100 years before our lifestyles change. Or maybe not.

And while the Permian rig count is rising, according to Figure 6 in this article, the reserves of the Permian (on the far right of the chart) don't look very impressive at all compared to others in the world....

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Price...aggerated.html

[chadk66]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

You fail to mention the short life expectancy of "tight oil" wells. The fracking rigs are much different than conventional wells. My grandparents' farm north of Minot still has four active wells that were drilled back in the early '70s, but the new shale wells are tapping out fast. There is an uptick to the Bakkan per the chart in this article, but the "shale play" is for the most part way over-hyped, trying to get investment dollars to get maintain cash flow. The magnitude of the shale fields is dwarfed by the conventional ones in Texas and the Middle East. EROI keeps getting lower, and of course there is the environmental impact with some of the tight oil fields.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Price...aggerated.html

Peak oil a myth? Really? Reserve numbers, economy and prices, technology, etc., are all moving when trying to model how soon we're tapped as a planet, but it's still a finite resource. Since I'm anticipating the decline of the American Empire to continue, which will include the petro dollar being displaced, being the country with the 10th largest known reserves means the U.S. is in for some rocky times - media propaganda, and oil industry propaganda, not withstanding.

what is a fracking rig? do you have a picture of such an animal? these so called "tight oil" wells will produce as much oil as the old vertical wells you speak of for just as long it appears. actually they'll produce 100 times the oil in 1/10th the time. All my wells I had that were drilled in the 70's and 80's are all under 30 barrels a day. That's the norm for the old wells. They produced probably in the neighborhood of 100-200 barrels a day for the first year or so when they were first drilled. Then they declined to today's 30 barrels or so on average. The shale wells of today produce 1000-2500 barrels a day for the first few months then declined to 400-800 barrels a day for a year or so. Then slowly decline to 30-100 barrels a day. I don't know of a single new shale well that isn't still producing. You need to get your information from people that actually work in the field and not some internet wanna be. I can tell you nearly anything you want to know. Right now I have six brand new wells that just came on. We have them choked down on the flow line with a screw in choke. They are on about a 40 choke. What's that mean? That means the opening in the choke is 40/64's open. Barely over a 1/2" opening and they are producing from 800-1000 barrels a day. Why don't we open them more? Because there's too much gas and it'll flare too much gas if we do. These wells could do 1500-2000 a day if we wanted them too. But they have now regulated the amount of flaring we can do so we can't open up like we did in the early years of the bakken/three forks development.

There are wells here from the 50's that are still producing eight to twenty barrels a day. Come on up and drive around. You'll see em all over NW ND. You need to understand 90% of the crap you hear or read is total bunk. And the U.S. Geological is so many years behind they think their leading lol. You really need to get your info from a different source lol.

[chadk66]

I'll try to clarify things for you.

This is a drilling rig and then a pic of fracing going on.

[hyipro]

A few years back I won a contest first prize was a brand new Fisker Karma electric car, it was a gorgeous car, cost $125,000 wow lucky me, then I found out the nearest charging station was 35 minutes away, I told the company thank you very much I will take the cash option instead $95,000 .........

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by chadk66

what is a fracking rig? do you have a picture of such an animal? these so called "tight oil" wells will produce as much oil as the old vertical wells you speak of for just as long it appears. actually they'll produce 100 times the oil in 1/10th the time. All my wells I had that were drilled in the 70's and 80's are all under 30 barrels a day. That's the norm for the old wells. They produced probably in the neighborhood of 100-200 barrels a day for the first year or so when they were first drilled. Then they declined to today's 30 barrels or so on average. The shale wells of today produce 1000-2500 barrels a day for the first few months then declined to 400-800 barrels a day for a year or so. Then slowly decline to 30-100 barrels a day. I don't know of a single new shale well that isn't still producing. You need to get your information from people that actually work in the field and not some internet wanna be. I can tell you nearly anything you want to know. Right now I have six brand new wells that just came on. We have them choked down on the flow line with a screw in choke. They are on about a 40 choke. What's that mean? That means the opening in the choke is 40/64's open. Barely over a 1/2" opening and they are producing from 800-1000 barrels a day. Why don't we open them more? Because there's too much gas and it'll flare too much gas if we do. These wells could do 1500-2000 a day if we wanted them too. But they have now regulated the amount of flaring we can do so we can't open up like we did in the early years of the bakken/three forks development.

There are wells here from the 50's that are still producing eight to twenty barrels a day. Come on up and drive around. You'll see em all over NW ND. You need to understand 90% of the crap you hear or read is total bunk. And the U.S. Geological is so many years behind they think their leading lol. You really need to get your info from a different source lol.

I was in the Williston area last summer for an aunt's funeral service, and dodging the oil trucks on the gravel back roads. By "fracking rig" I simply mean the multiple pump/horizontal drilling equipment (along with the chemical and water injections), versus the single well and mostly vertical wells used on the more easily accessible deposits of oil that were around in the good old days.

As for talking with people "who know the business", one of my cousins from Mohall was a field engineer out of Williston for many years before retiring a couple of years ago. He was at the service, and we discussed the future of the Bakken, and how end costs are so critical to production (which of course is true to a lesser degree with traditional oil wells). Oddly enough, he spoke more about the corruption of the field crews and how leases were obtained, which I knew nothing about - though I did see a lot of Florida plates on trucks, which I thought was odd as the Sunshine State isn't known for its oil companies. As a side note, I also wrote a term paper in college on the Bakken deposits, but that was back then before the "shale" boom hit.

Bottom line - you haven't written anything that contradicts the fact that oil, along with lithium for car batteries, is a finite resource. Numbers are all over the place for reserves, and for cost of production, depending on who you ask and whether or not they have a vested interest in providing an accurate answer. Per this article in Forbes from March, Bakken production has dropped off to about 1M barrels per day in spite of an increase in wells, and of course that's only about 5% of the U.S. daily consumption rate.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurb.../#72c172391487

The U.S. won't be gaining energy independence from shale oil, and we're just one Middle Eastern or Chinese event from seeing our lifestyles severely impacted. Even without a political event, there will come a day when it's apparent that demand is outpacing supply ($140+ / barrel again?), and rationing will be necessary. That "day" may be 20 or 30 years from now, but probably not 100 and maybe sooner - a lot sooner.

[chadk66]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

I was in the Williston area last summer for an aunt's funeral service, and dodging the oil trucks on the gravel back roads. By "fracking rig" I simply mean the multiple pump/horizontal drilling equipment (along with the chemical and water injections), versus the single well and mostly vertical wells used on the more easily accessible deposits of oil that were around in the good old days.

As for talking with people "who know the business", one of my cousins from Mohall was a field engineer out of Williston for many years before retiring a couple of years ago. He was at the service, and we discussed the future of the Bakken, and how end costs are so critical to production (which of course is true to a lesser degree with traditional oil wells). Oddly enough, he spoke more about the corruption of the field crews and how leases were obtained, which I knew nothing about - though I did see a lot of Florida plates on trucks, which I thought was odd as the Sunshine State isn't known for its oil companies. As a side note, I also wrote a term paper in college on the Bakken deposits, but that was back then before the "shale" boom hit.

Bottom line - you haven't written anything that contradicts the fact that oil, along with lithium for car batteries, is a finite resource. Numbers are all over the place for reserves, and for cost of production, depending on who you ask and whether or not they have a vested interest in providing an accurate answer. Per this article in Forbes from March, Bakken production has dropped off to about 1M barrels per day in spite of an increase in wells, and of course that's only about 5% of the U.S. daily consumption rate.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurb.../#72c172391487

The U.S. won't be gaining energy independence from shale oil, and we're just one Middle Eastern or Chinese event from seeing our lifestyles severely impacted. Even without a political event, there will come a day when it's apparent that demand is outpacing supply ($140+ / barrel again?), and rationing will be necessary. That "day" may be 20 or 30 years from now, but probably not 100 and maybe sooner - a lot sooner.

What the forbes writer doesn't understand is that just because there is a well doesn't mean it's producing. Oasis alone had 500 wells that were drilled and not fracked. which means they weren't put into production. Yet those wells added to the number of wells in the state officially. We are back over a million barrels a day and they have probably only fracked 100 of those wells if that. that's just one company. Being in Mohall your uncle probably knows little about the bakken in reality. they aren't drilling it up there and things have changed here so much in just the last three years it's crazy. And if you aren't working in it every day you don't even know about it. And don't even get me started on engineers lol. No disrespect but most are nothing but a thorn in our asses. I could tell you stories for hours of stupidity they did that cost the companies millions.

We don't have to gain oil independence from any formation. All we need to do is convince the OPEC nations we can produce a shit pile of oil and that it's not out of the realm that we could be energy independent. Right now they're starting to think that could be a possibility in this current political climate. when the democrats are running things they know full well we won't/can't.

I still don't know what your talking about when you say pump/horizontal drilling equipment. A drilling rig (the one picture I posted) is what drills the horizontal well bore. They drill the first 7000 feet or so vertically. That's what they consider the kick-off point. They then start drilling the curve. When the curve is complete they will be roughly 10,000 feet deep. They then drill that horizontal leg roughly 1000 feet long. Total well depth's (vertical,curve and horizontal) vary from 15,000-18,000 feet on most wells. It all depends on the location of the well site in regards to the lease spacing. There are some wells over 20,000 feet long. I'm guessing the pumps you are talking about are the frac pumps they use during the fracing process. These are on big semi trailers and Haliburton's are all red and Schlumberger's are all blue, etc. etc. Drilling rig and Fracing pumps and all their related equipment are completely different things. The large frac pumps are only one piece of the fracing puzzle. There are blenders on big semi trailers, Mixers on big semi trailers, frac sand trailers that have live bottoms for unloading the frac sand, etc.

When the drilling rig is completed the well head is installed and the rig leaves. That well can sit there forever if the company so chooses. During the boom the fracking companies would be moving onto a new well site within a couple weeks after the rig left to start the frac. You will often see workover rigs moving around the area. There are hundreds of them. They drive down the highway with the derrick laid down. The derrick looks just like a drilling rig derrick but 1/4 the size or less. The quite might be what you are referring to. But the only thing that drills horizontal is the drilling rig. I'm not trying to be a jackass towards you. I'm simply trying to point out the numerous myths, flaws and flat out stupidity we hear all the time. And trust me, Forbes is not the place you should be getting information from lol. They wouldn't know a drilling rig from a outhouse.

[davew]

so where does all the electricity come from to charge these cars? over half in USA is from coal or NG.

is this just anther wealth transferring system and an environmental push - just source it another place?

[chadk66]

Originally Posted by davew

so where does all the electricity come from to charge these cars? over half in USA is from coal or NG.

is this just anther wealth transferring system and an environmental push - just source it another place?

all the coal fired electrical generating plants need to simultaneously shut down for three days. people would then understand where it comes from and how important coal fired generators are.

[davew]

Originally Posted by chadk66

all the coal fired electrical generating plants need to simultaneously shut down for three days. people would then understand where it comes from and how important coal fired generators are.

too bad ENRON is no longer around

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by menifee

I think for most people a car is simply a way to get from point A to point B. Cars are a waste of money.

There will always be those that will want the newest toy, but they will be able to ride in them as there will be ride share services that would appeal to certain clientele by offering the latest and best cars. The economics of self driving cars will be so strong that it would be extremely unwise to own your own vehicle.

You grossly underestimate the American freedom of driving a car on the open road.

Americans love cars. Other than a home over their head, there is no other inanimate object that Americans love more than a great car. Nope. Not even a cell phone.

Either you are a Millenial, or you have never been out of the Northeast of the America.

[menifee]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

You grossly underestimate the American freedom of driving a car on the open road.

Americans love cars. Other than a home over their head, there is no other inanimate object that Americans love more than a great car. Nope. Not even a cell phone.

Either you are a Millenial, or you have never been out of the Northeast of the America.

In the early 1900s, Americans probably loved their horses too, the car was just better. The self driving car will just be better.

I'm over 40 and I have been all around this great country. I've never associated freedom with owning a car. Perhaps when I was 16, but I've come to realize that cars are a waste of money. They depreciate in value rapidly and they are costly to fuel and maintain. They are also deadly and very wasteful. Do you know how many hours the average American spends in traffic? Here's a quick summary of the potential cost savings from self driving cars.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...ving-cars/amp/

In the future I will be to to get on my smart phone in Boston and have the latest and greatest self driving car pick me up and drive me to Saratoga. While it is driving me out there, I can handicap the races and watch race replays from the back seat. I won't have to worry about navigating or traffic. When I get to the Spa, I won't have to pay for parking or worry about where the closet gas station is. I will enter the track and have a great time. On my way home I will take a nap and ponder why I can't be profitable at this game. That's real freedom.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by menifee

In the early 1900s, Americans probably loved their horses too, the car was just better. The self driving car will just be better.

I'm over 40 and I have been all around this great country. I've never associated freedom with owning a car. Perhaps when I was 16, but I've come to realize that cars are a waste of money. They depreciate in value rapidly and they are costly to fuel and maintain. They are also deadly and very wasteful. Do you know how many hours the average American spends in traffic? Here's a quick summary of the potential cost savings from self driving cars.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...ving-cars/amp/

In the future I will be to to get on my smart phone in Boston and have the latest and greatest self driving car pick me up and drive me to Saratoga. While it is driving me out there, I can handicap the races and watch race replays from the back seat. I won't have to worry about navigating or traffic. When I get to the Spa, I won't have to pay for parking or worry about where the closet gas station is. I will enter the track and have a great time. On my way home I will take a nap and ponder why I can't be profitable at this game. That's real freedom.

Fantastic. All that reads to me is "trapped".

You enjoy your East Coast-centric life of not wanting or needing a car or vehicle.

You underestimated the fly-over country 8 months ago, so it isn't shocking to see such comments.

Personally? I don't have to worry about parking, or navigating much traffic. Everything I need on a day to day basis is within 5 minutes. I don't have to lock my doors at night. I have 3 cars in my garage. My neighbor restores old cars for a living, and 3 of my neighbors own and drive cars older than me. (That would be pre-1970 cars).

I can wager from home, or I can take a 5 minute drive up the road to our local "track" and wager among friends. True and actual friends, not just acquaintances.

And come November, I'll be in San Diego for the Breeder's Cup at Del Mar with fantastic seats.