Benter & public odds

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Final got around to reading the paper to the finish. The thing that struck me was the time involved. 5 man years to develop and another 5 man years to prefect. I know we have better tools today, but still ......
Note: a man year is between 2,000 and 2,100 man hours depending on your source.

Hi RG,

Not disputing your central point, but to clarify, Benter began in '88, was in the black by '93 and was making between 10-20 million a year by the mid'90s - what he describes as 'tweaking' was basically icing on the cake. As Dave Schwarz has observed here, winning consistently and profitably at this very difficult game is a world-class endeavor. Those few who succeed are, in relation to the denizens of OTB, as NBA players are in comparison to guys on the playground and even college ranks. As far as I can tell, the people on this site who have developed successful models have devoted years if not decades to this pursuit. As Raybo has mentioned, he researched the game for twenty years without playing before developing a model profitable enough to begin betting. Few horseplayers have this level of self-discipline.

I think the other approach to which you alluded, of researching spot plays based on your own horseplaying experience a la Pondman, would better serve your purpose.

Cheers,

lansdale

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by lansdale

Hi RG,

Not disputing your central point, but to clarify, Benter began in '88, was in the black by '93 and was making between 10-20 million a year by the mid'90s - what he describes as 'tweaking' was basically icing on the cake. As Dave Schwarz has observed here, winning consistently and profitably at this very difficult game is a world-class endeavor. Those few who succeed are, in relation to the denizens of OTB, as NBA players are in comparison to guys on the playground and even college ranks. As far as I can tell, the people on this site who have developed successful models have devoted years if not decades to this pursuit. As Raybo has mentioned, he researched the game for twenty years without playing before developing a model profitable enough to begin betting. Few horseplayers have this level of self-discipline.

I think the other approach to which you alluded, of researching spot plays based on your own horseplaying experience a la Pondman, would better serve your purpose.

Cheers,

lansdale

I am sure it would. And I have a few of those. I am just playing around with this because I have always want to try it and now I have the time. I just wish it was so much data entry. I have an idea of what my model will be when I am done now. I doubt very much that it will profitable. I am hoping for close.
I might add the first time I was interested in this was in 1972 when I found about a program call SPSS. At that time I didn't have the computer time to do much.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I am sure it would. And I have a few of those. I am just playing around with this because I have always want to try it and now I have the time. I just wish it was so much data entry. I have an idea of what my model will be when I am done now. I doubt very much that it will profitable. I am hoping for close.

You mention "data entry", much of the 20 years I studied the game before betting was spent discovering ways to automate that data entry task. As I mentioned in my previous post, having the proper tools available will drastically shorten the time required to actually accomplish the goal. When you consider the difference between going through mountains of paper DRFs and newspaper results, to using data files for both, completely automated for import into software, I could have gained about 15 years in development time alone. I wasted years typing data into "Basic" programs and Excel.

[Gamblor]

Is Benter still betting in HK or has he stopped?

[AltonKelsey]

No idea, but I don't know why he would, unless he's tired of the game.

Plenty of guys just like him still doing the wild thing.

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by Gamblor

Is Benter still betting in HK or has he stopped?

I am assuming he is busy with this...

http://www.benterfoundation.org/foundation/board-staff/

My base instinct is that other teams moved in to provide too much competition relative to the edge, and effort involved.

I read at least one comment from him expressing a hint of consternation about, essentially, taking advantage of the unaware and unsophisticated public.

[Cholly]

couldn't help a twinge of sadness noticing that last two posters pre-bump were Robert Goren and Raybo

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk

I am assuming he is busy with this...

http://www.benterfoundation.org/foundation/board-staff/

My base instinct is that other teams moved in to provide too much competition relative to the edge, and effort involved.

I read at least one comment from him expressing a hint of consternation about, essentially, taking advantage of the unaware and unsophisticated public.

What exactly does that mean? Only way for anyone to win is to take the money from someone else. In theory , the stock market can be win/win, but no gambling game has that as an outcome.

[betovernetcapper]

Found an interesting article on Benton.

http://www.worlds-greatest-gamblers....illiam-benter/

I have read that the basis of his work or first discovery was that the most important factor was the number of times a horse had raced in HK. This makes sense as it takes most horses to acclimatize. I'd imagine that most people would note that fact & disregard it as noise.

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

What exactly does that mean? Only way for anyone to win is to take the money from someone else. In theory , the stock market can be win/win, but no gambling game has that as an outcome.

"And he acknowledges that some might consider what he does as similar to a professional golfer entering--and cleaning up--at amateur tournaments"...

http://www.contingenciesonline.com/c...06/?pg=31#pg31

Sure, in the overview, he's fine with it, as the next sentence indicates.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk

I read at least one comment from him expressing a hint of consternation about, essentially, taking advantage of the unaware and unsophisticated public.

Yes. Gamblers often develop "magnanimity"...after they beat their opposition out of a few hundred-million dollars.

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by betovernetcapper

Found an interesting article on Benton.

http://www.worlds-greatest-gamblers....illiam-benter/

I have read that the basis of his work or first discovery was that the most important factor was the number of times a horse had raced in HK. This makes sense as it takes most horses to acclimatize. I'd imagine that most people would note that fact & disregard it as noise.

I'm not that familiar with the class conditions at HK, but I assumed this resulted from data collected from a significant number of "non winners of 2,3", etc. As a horse accumulated starts in those classifications, he stamped himself as a chronic loser, as opposed to a more lightly raced horse being such because he graduated form that condition.

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by betovernetcapper

Found an interesting article on Benton.

http://www.worlds-greatest-gamblers....illiam-benter/

I have read that the basis of his work or first discovery was that the most important factor was the number of times a horse had raced in HK. This makes sense as it takes most horses to acclimatize. I'd imagine that most people would note that fact & disregard it as noise.

I read your post more closely...if I recall correctly, the more starts were a negative.

[betovernetcapper]

In America horses with multiple starts without winning are viewed as bridesmaids and money burners. We look for 1st time starters and lightly raced horses. In HK, some horses win first out but it's rare. Even horses that have won in Europe or Australia are raced as Griffins (something like a maiden) until they win in HK. It usually takes several races for the horse to become adjusted,

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Cholly

couldn't help a twinge of sadness noticing that last two posters pre-bump were Robert Goren and Raybo

Ray emailed me last week and he was on a trip to DC with his gal so that indeed is good news to pass along! Hope he decides to make a pass through Cincinnati on the way back. I'll let you all know.