starting to plan for Oaks/Derby card

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

I've never had the privilege (or stress) of having a live Double. My doubles usually die by the far turn.

oh man.. The only thing worse than losing the first leg of a multi, is betting too much on slow horses when spreading to 'stay alive' early


starting to come down with a Derby Fever

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[Elkchester Road]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

I've never had the privilege (or stress) of having a live Double. My doubles usually die by the far turn.

[Bennie]

I was fortunate enough to have played a couple Oaks/Derby doubles in the futures pool back in February. Back when Nest and Zandon were still a price. I used Echo, Nest and Secret with Epicenter and Zandon. The Nest to Zandon DD closed at $220 for $2. A lot more than they might pay with both at 3-1 ML.

[Aerocraft67]

I like the idea of cooking up a score. We have some horizontal interest. What about vertical prospects in the big race?

Any hope of getting some chalk out of the ticket? Wet track could shake up the performances, and maybe the prices. A few viable bombs would certainly be useful.

Tall order to budget adequate coverage with $1 supers, but a six-figure payout is not out of the question. Getting there with trifectas is more like $15 each.

Harder than I thought to find historical Derby payouts, but this site had 2000–2012.

Taking the fourth highest payouts in the series, you get $200k for the $2 super and $12k for the $2 trifecta. You might hit $100k with a $1 super, but you'll need the tri for $15+ to get there.

A tri key box with three runners would be $300. You could get a lot of super coverage with that.

[f2tornado]

Both the Friday and Saturday cards look challenging for vertical wagers but that does invite some potential big payoffs. I recall hitting a 50 cent tri that paid $200 before collecting again on Always Dreaming. The mud could shake things up, especially Friday. I'm going to shoot more horizontally than vertically this year. There's tons of options this year.

[Robert Fischer]

YouTube

we recorded the show!, ( i come on about 19:20 ) and give some opinions and few mentions of 'vertical wager' ideas.

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Both the Friday and Saturday cards look challenging for vertical wagers but that does invite some potential big payoffs. I recall hitting a 50 cent tri that paid $200 before collecting again on Always Dreaming. The mud could shake things up, especially Friday. I'm going to shoot more horizontally than vertically this year. There's tons of options this year.

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

I like the idea of cooking up a score. We have some horizontal interest. What about vertical prospects in the big race?

Any hope of getting some chalk out of the ticket? Wet track could shake up the performances, and maybe the prices. A few viable bombs would certainly be useful.

Tall order to budget adequate coverage with $1 supers, but a six-figure payout is not out of the question. Getting there with trifectas is more like $15 each.

Harder than I thought to find historical Derby payouts, but this site had 2000–2012.

Taking the fourth highest payouts in the series, you get $200k for the $2 super and $12k for the $2 trifecta. You might hit $100k with a $1 super, but you'll need the tri for $15+ to get there.

A tri key box with three runners would be $300. You could get a lot of super coverage with that.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Y0S3ncmItU

we recorded the show!, ( i come on about 19:20 ) and give some opinions and few mentions of 'vertical wager' ideas.

you have great passion and you did a great job.

for my 2 cents about the Oaks. D Wayne the plane, has always been great with Fillies. SECRET OATH comes out of the Arkansas Derby, which is the best race that any of these other horses came out of. it seems like ECHO ZULO has only 1 race this year and that might be by design. i don't know how well she holds her weight. so i would want to see her on the track right before the race to see how she looks. i watched the Churchill feed today, just to see how close the cameras are right before the race. i wasn't in love with the angle and i don't want to trust my money with a paddock picker. on something like that. i don't want to bet on ECHO ZULO if she looks nervous right before the race.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

you have great passion and you did a great job.

for my 2 cents about the Oaks. D Wayne the plane, has always been great with Fillies. SECRET OATH comes out of the Arkansas Derby, which is the best race that any of these other horses came out of. it seems like ECHO ZULO has only 1 race this year and that might be by design. i don't know how well she holds her weight. so i would want to see her on the track right before the race to see how she looks. i watched the Churchill feed today, just to see how close the cameras are right before the race. i wasn't in love with the angle and i don't want to trust my money with a paddock picker. on something like that. i don't want to bet on ECHO ZULO if she looks nervous right before the race.

Thank you, Lambo

AJ likes Secret Oath a lot.
Yea, if Echo Zulu hasn't progressed as much to 3, there are a few in there that could run her down. Secret Oath is definitely one of them.

[Robert Fischer]

If you can be fortunate to have a significant opinion in a 'Multi-Multi' 'Key race...

that is a good thing

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[jay68802]

Oaks Derby Double:


/

[jay68802]

Am going to add the in the Oaks.

[Aerocraft67]

Love the contrarian favorable view of the UAE Derby you called out The Clowns. Say what you want about the , he'll avoid trouble if nothing else. Is anyone really going to fry their mount contesting him for the lead?

Staying the finish is of course a question—as it is for many. Mixed signals from the pedigree stats.

Crown Pride is easier to like. Even the sharps don't mind him at >20-1. I think I need to use him, if not on top, or as a key. His dam sire has that standout 8.7f average winning distance. Other distance figs are mixed.

Could get bet down though.

[MadTiger]

Originally Posted by dballard125

I cant believe this sub-forum is so dead with the Derby being so close. What happened to this place lol?

Tried to warn them years ago. I saw the future. They told me to get off of their lawn.

[Michael]

Here are the updated scratches for #KyOaks Day. Fast/Firm

Race 3: 2, 5
Race 7: 3
Race 9: 1
Race 11: 15
Race 12: 1a
Race 13: 2, 13-16

Also, in the Kentucky Derby, scratch #20 Ethereal Road and #22 Rattle N Roll. #21 Rich Strike will run.

[Red Knave]

Rain forecast to start mid-afternoon, possibly thunderstorms.