Betting the favorite to Place

[Ray2000]

Yesterday, Bombs hurt a lot on Place bets
37 picks from 133 Races, 2 scratched
27 went off the Favorite, of those
14 won returning $49.90 (-4)
16 placed returning $40.40 (-14)

						
8/21/14 To 9/25/14 ---- 632 Favorites						
   	Bet	Return	Net	ROI	Hits	Strike
Win	1264	1202	-62	0.95	360	57%
Place	1264	1246	-18	0.99	489	77%

Friday, September 26, 2014
Freehold R4...........# 2 Fancy Pants Sandy-2/1
Freehold R7...........# 6 Lil Miss Snowflake-7/2
Freehold R8...........# 4 Play Fair-2/1
Freehold R10..........# 5 Campanile Hanover-5/2
Freehold R11..........# 2 I Luv It-5/2
Fraser R4.............# 2 Makeing The Mark-2/1
Fraser R5.............# 2 One Last Shot-7/2
Fraser R6.............# 1 National Interest-3/1
Hoosier R13...........# 5 Hoponit-4/1
Meadows R6............# 4 Southwind Glider-3/1
Meadows R16...........# 5 Dress The Part-5/2
Mohawk R1.............# 5 Indian Lake-7/2
Mohawk R11............# 5 Noble Jilly-3/1
Northfield R4.........# 4 Threefold Breanna-5/2
Northfield R6.........# 9 Ee Bay-9/2
Northfield R12........# 4 Satin Slayer-3/1
Chester R1............# 4 Four Starz Speed-9/5
Chester R4............# 5 Cinderosa-5/2
Chester R12...........# 3 Ellie'S Best Dream-5/1
Chester R13...........# 5 Dream'S Bar-7/2
Chester R14...........# 1 Brdways Perfection-8/5
Scioto R5.............# 10 Quick N' Slick-3/1
Saratoga R1...........# 4 Jesse Say More-3/1
Saratoga R9...........# 1 Zorgwijk Nova-5/2
Saratoga R12..........# 1 Mean Girls-5/2
Yonkers R11...........# 4 Frau Blucher-8/5

[Ray2000]

Yesterday,
26 picks from 133 Races, 1 scratched
20 went off the Favorite, of those
11 won returning $41.70 (+2)
16 placed returning $42.20 (+2)

						
8/21/14 To 9/26/14 ---- 652 Favorites						
   	Bet	Return	Net	ROI	Hits	Strike
Win	1304	1244	-60	0.95	371	57%
Place	1304	1288	-16	0.99	505	77%

Saturday, September 27, 2014
Balmoral R2...........# 6 Sea Watcher-6/1
Balmoral R3...........# 5 Timewell-5/2
Balmoral R7...........# 1 Meadowbrook Samson-3/1
Balmoral R10..........# 2 Furious Frank-7/2
Balmoral R11..........# 6 Ice Scraper-3/1
Balmoral R12..........# 10 Kingofthejungle-3/1
Batavia R8............# 1 Power Off-5/2
Batavia R10...........# 4 Legal Process-5/2
Batavia R12...........# 3 Whipmeintoshape-5/2
Freehold R1...........# 1 Pass The Deck-5/1
Freehold R3...........# 5 Freddy Day Hanover-2/1
Freehold R6...........# 1 Whataorse-2/1
Freehold R8...........# 2 Leg Up-2/1
Freehold R10..........# 4 Jump The Shark-4/1
Freehold R11..........# 1 A Bettor World-2/1
Flamboro R6...........# 3 Windsun Callum-1/1
Scioto R14............# 5 Easy Again-2/1
Scioto R15............# 5 Continual Velocity-4/1
Saratoga R3...........# 1 Big Bambu-6/5
Saratoga R8...........# 4 Its A Good Thing-4/1

This is the last day of this test run.

I'll put up the summaries later, for now it appears

1. Place betting on Favorites does do better than Win Betting, as the chart in the first post showed.

2. You can make money Place betting with the right choice of Favorites and a good rebate supplier.

[Ray2000]

This run looked at 3660 races, selected 868 Horses to Bet for Win and Place (24% plays)

						
8/21/14 To 9/27/14 
---- 668 went off the Favorite		
   	Bet	Return	Net	ROI	Hits	Strike
Win	1336	1280	-56	0.96	381	57%
Place	1336	1319	-17	0.99	516	77%
								
 ---- 200 were NOT the Favorite			
   	Bet	Return	Net	ROI	Hits	Strike
Win	400	444	44	1.11	62	31%
Place	400	372	-28	0.93	105	53%

By Track (All picks Fave or not)
	Selects	Win Roi	Place Roi
ACES	3	0.87	0.40
BMLP	29	0.61	0.82
BTVA	58	1.45	1.18
CHST	125	1.02	0.99
FHLD	75	1.01	1.03
FLMD	14	0.98	0.86
FRD	9	0.80	1.18
GRVR	10	1.02	1.04
HAR	84	1.02	1.03
HOP	24	1.08	0.94
MAY	12	0.60	0.74
MEA	25	1.08	0.92
MOH	25	0.94	0.80
MR	80	0.90	0.89
NFLD	76	0.94	0.88
PCD	22	1.03	0.90
PRC	34	1.06	1.05
RIDC	12	0.73	0.74
SCD	53	0.62	0.77
STGA	56	0.87	0.95
TGDN	19	0.68	0.83
VD	7	0.94	1.01
YR	38	1.13	0.98
  	868	0.99	0.97

The difference in ROIs between Win and Pace betting was not significant on Favorites
too few races to be meaningful on Non-Faves.

The chart below shows the effect of final toteboard odds on return.
. . Instead of tabulating the odds numbers into segments, I prefer sorting on the factor
and showing the running balance of betting those races in that order.
It's easier to spot rising or falling slopes that way.

The "Sweet spot" here seems to be between 3/2 and 5/2 odds on faves.
Bets on selections greater than 5/2 were almost always not the favorite.

[traynor]

There is a tendency at some harness tracks (most recent that comes to mind is the first at Yonkers last night) in which "early money" disproportionately tweaks the odds, in essence creating a false favorite. Because enough people are influenced by that influx of early money to wager on that selection--and many others follow--a relatively small wager made early can inflate the mutuels on the "real" selection. The technique is perfectly legal, and has been used at greyhound tracks and the smaller thoroughbred tracks for years.

You may recall I mentioned recently that my current records indicated a disproportionate number of odds-on entries were losing--so much so that they could (generally) be eliminated for serious consideration. Rather than "lack of effort because odds were too short" the root cause may be simplistic pool manipulation, followed by the foolishness of crowds chasing one another.

You might consider looking at the figures when the heavy favorites are factored out. I used even money as the breaking point, but lower odds are even more dismal in the return department--3/5 or less is like throwing money into a bottomless pit.

I am suggesting that you have accumulated some very valuable data, that might be mined for other information than that readily apparent. Any time you can break even over a large run, with a strike rate in the high 70% range, rebates can generate some very nice profit with minimal initial outlay. Great work!

[mrroyboy]

I agree and cannot praise Ray's work enough. This is done without late changes etc. Break even is huge.
Very nice work Ray.

[Ray2000]

Thanks guys

Traynor
I think it was your post (reply #10) in thread

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=114783

that got me looking at finding value in low priced horses. I wanted to see how the 2nd favorite compared with 1st.
Turned out it was the Place return on faves (-9 ROI%) on a 5200 sample, that started this run.

In the past I've always ignored betting faves in the Win or Place pools.

With the right stake distribution, (and good odds) Place betting on a Exotic key, might work as a hedge.

Thanks again


And thanks to ALL for your comments.