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04-20-2017, 07:10 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Betting Stratagy
What types of bets do you like to make? Do you play for the WIN bet or do you play for a big payout?
Although ill be holding a bunch of tickets my favorite bet is $1 TRI
AB w/ ABCDEFG w/ ABCDEFG
cost 60 bucks.
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04-20-2017, 09:42 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 131
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I'm sure I'll make a win bet or two and then maybe a couple of show bets on some longer priced horses if I like their chances to hit the board. I'll play for the exacta and trifectas as well, but how those are structured each year depends on what opinion I have. As of now with 2+ weeks to go I can see myself playing it similar to you, Paynter, with a 2x6x6.
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04-20-2017, 09:58 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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It's too hard to pick the winner, especially in a wide open Derby.
Backwheel for me...
ABCD / ABCDEFGH / Y
Something like that.
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04-20-2017, 10:55 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
It's too hard to pick the winner, especially in a wide open Derby.
Backwheel for me...
ABCD / ABCDEFGH / Y
Something like that.
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You think its easier to pick the 3rd place horse?
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04-20-2017, 11:22 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
You think its easier to pick the 3rd place horse?
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Easy might be the wrong word. It's still a stab, but I'd bet the Derby pace will be moderate to fast, and I just need a stamina horse who can move forward towards the end.
Maybe I'll use 2 deep closers in 3rd just to make it more fun.
But I have no strong opinion on who the winner is, so yes, this is the strategy for me. Just put 5 or 6 strong contenders on top and an "okay" closer keyed on the bottom.
Last edited by letswastemoney; 04-20-2017 at 11:24 AM.
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04-20-2017, 11:44 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
Easy might be the wrong word. It's still a stab, but I'd bet the Derby pace will be moderate to fast, and I just need a stamina horse who can move forward towards the end.
Maybe I'll use 2 deep closers in 3rd just to make it more fun.
But I have no strong opinion on who the winner is, so yes, this is the strategy for me. Just put 5 or 6 strong contenders on top and an "okay" closer keyed on the bottom.
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hmm thats an interesting take 
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04-20-2017, 11:55 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Canada
Posts: 539
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With the ...............???
With the number of starters at 20 horses.........it is very difficult to use the ALL button..........even for the show (third line) positon.
__________________
Lotteries & Horse Racing....Difference between a Mindless Gamble & an Intellectual Pursuit!
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04-20-2017, 02:13 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,625
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My thoughts considering a $200 bankroll in addition to existing Future pool bets with a goal of winning $1000. This is the first year in a long time I like three horses on top. Unfortunately, two are the 1st and 2nd favorite. I will bet the Oaks/Derby double keying Paradise Woods over several Derby horses in an effort to inflate those win odds. Perhaps $10 each. Maybe also cover something goofy for a few dollars. Perhaps score $200 if it hits.
Another option is the Oaks/Woodford/Derby P3. I will probably play a $1 1x4x3 = $12. I figure this might score another $200-$300. I will scout out an upset in the Oaks and add another wager. If that one hits then the payoff would be huge.
I will use my top 3 Derby horses in some sort of trifecta wager. Perhaps a 50 cent 3x5x7 for $30. Since I like Always Dreaming most I will probably make another 50 cent bet with him. Something like a 50 cent 1x4x8 = $12. The payoff will obviously depend on what hits underneath but I'll estimate $300 take here.
I already have Always Dreaming over a chunk of the field in the Future pools but have nothing with Classic Empire. I'm thinking of a $5 box AD/CE/Hence. This might pay $200.
That gets me close to a grand with the potential for plenty more if a bomber hits the tri and/or I luck out with some of my Future pool wagers.
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04-20-2017, 07:20 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,012
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My initial bets will be Oaks/Woodford/Derby pick 3 and Oaks/Derby Double. It owes me nothing as I had both with Orb a couple of years ago and a few smaller in years past. If live to the Derby, I will probably just cover my butt with some exotic bets keying a couple of horses I left out.
I have futures with Irish/field boxed and McCrak/field boxed as well as a few bucks on Irish at like 26-1. I do usually take a wild stab at the tri and super for a few bucks just for kicks, you never know.
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04-20-2017, 09:49 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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How much of a factor does post position figure into your exotics? 12 of 17 3rd place finishers this century post 8 or inside. While 5 of last 6 4th place finishers post 13 or out.
coincidence?.... probably
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04-20-2017, 11:28 PM
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#11
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
How much of a factor does post position figure into your exotics? 12 of 17 3rd place finishers this century post 8 or inside. While 5 of last 6 4th place finishers post 13 or out.
coincidence?.... probably
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Running style is important when looking at post position.
When you are way wide, you lose ground. If the horse is a star he can do what American Pharoah or Big Brown did, and just relax, spot the field several lengths, and run his race.
A top horse can win or hit the board from way out there.
A less than stellar E or E/P is going to be ridden more urgently and still lose the ground.
If a horse is a deep closer, he's worried a lot more about the pace coming back to him, than the post draw.
The 1 and 2 holes are no picnic either. Have to establish tactical position. Can get very tight.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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04-21-2017, 05:29 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
What types of bets do you like to make? Do you play for the WIN bet or do you play for a big payout?
Although ill be holding a bunch of tickets my favorite bet is $1 TRI
AB w/ ABCDEFG w/ ABCDEFG
cost 60 bucks.
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I cant discount Practical Joke, so $50 pl/$50 show bets on him. The rest Ill figure out later.
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04-21-2017, 07:13 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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show bets, huh? In a 20 horse field is it worth it to play for 3 or 4 to 1? Unless your taking a horses that like a 40-1 - im with you tho on Practical Joke hes a gutsy horse and I think his heart and the fight he has in him outweighs the distance limitations his pedigree suggest.
Last edited by PowerUpPaynter; 04-21-2017 at 07:16 AM.
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04-21-2017, 03:21 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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I think this year more than most the post draw and projecting how the race takes shape early is more important in handicapping it with a lot of horses that are of similar styles, talents, and have the same questions.
Heres to hoping Always Dreaming draws the dreaded 1 post, just so i can fully toss him. 
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04-21-2017, 05:54 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 121
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$1 Super Hi-5 Classic Empire/ALL/ALL/ALL/ALL ($93,024)
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