Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 02-02-2024, 09:10 PM   #1
zico20
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,987
SOUTHWEST STAKES

This race can go a few different ways!

Stunned that this horse is the ML favorite, I see him going off at double digit odds. Need the lead type that won't get it with a ton of speed in the race plus is losing lasix today. I would love to see him at 3-1 to help the pools because he is a toss for me.

Maiden that doesn't belong in the race coming off of a 20 length loss. Lucky to beat a horse.

Remington Park horse with horrible final times. Deserves to be 30-1 ML Toss

This is the head scratcher for me. Only beat the three by two lengths but his race before that was solid. Asmussen is a plus but worry what happens when he doesn't get within three lengths going into the first turn. Can he close? Guess we find out! Contender if able to settle a few lengths back.

Baffert horse, the question is what caused the turnaround. Was it getting the lead or was it the stretch out. Wasn't bet at all in a five horse field coming off of a win. Guessing he goes like gangbusters for the front. Win contender if able to seize the lead, if not, could easily see him finishing out of the super.

My longshot to crash the exotics. Improving speed figures every race and beat the four already. Why no workouts over 4F being off over 90 days seems strange. Has the right running style to get in there.

Asmussen horse with loads of talent and very fast early. Who gets the lead, him or Baffert's horse. That is the million dollar question. It seems there is never a two horse duel where they go head to head from the start. My top selection as I think he gets the lead and never looks back. If not, he could run out of the super.

Slow two races and loses lasix but could improve enough to hit the bottom of the exotics. Not the worst longshot ever.

Still a maiden and massively regressed going two turns. Toss

Horse has fallen apart in the stretch last two when close to the lead and won't be close up early today. No indication he can make up ground in the stretch. Toss

Only two of his eight starts have been a route. Doesn't seem to have any power in the stretch and never well bet for a Justify offspring. Possible he could hit the board if a speed duel occurs and he tries coming from farther back.

Cox horse but his last two were awful and the post isn't going to do him no favors. He has fallen apart in races that weren't that fast. His only saving grace is he is the class of the field coming in off of a G1 and a G2 but he needs to improve, maybe the weaker competition helps spark him to life. Still hard to play him on top.
__________________
You will never achieve 100% if 99% is okay!

Last edited by zico20; 02-02-2024 at 09:15 PM.
zico20 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-02-2024, 09:22 PM   #2
Bullet Plane
Registered User
 
Bullet Plane's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: OKC, OK
Posts: 609
I heard on Fox that the 1 scratched.
Bullet Plane is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-02-2024, 09:52 PM   #3
racenomics
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2023
Posts: 129
I agree with you. & for me
__________________
Everything in life is better with a Karl Broberg quote
racenomics is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-02-2024, 10:55 PM   #4
Onesome
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 246
/ pour moi
Onesome is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-03-2024, 07:35 AM   #5
PalaceOfFortLarned
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,106
A weird, deep, and yet experienced field with erratic running lines in their first outing as 3YOs in a Derby trail stakes race.

Cox, Baffert, Lukas, McPeek, and Asmussen all show up with an entry or two. This race kind of screams chaos to me, and we could get a big price on top.

looks a bit interesting and one of the maidens in the field in the could be ready to pop a big one.

Should be a very interesting tote board to watch.
PalaceOfFortLarned is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-03-2024, 09:34 AM   #6
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
#9 LINEBACKER (30-1) is going to run a big race.
Had a tough trip in the last start (shuffled badly on the inside) but rallied well for the runner-up spot. Ownership has had some very nice horses (mostly with Mac Robertson, Amy's Challenge comes to mind).
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-03-2024, 09:43 AM   #7
bisket
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,431
The best horse is probably Liberal Arts, but I don't like him with 4 works coming off 3 months on the bench. One thing that might move him up is a sloppy track, and looking at weather reports there's a lot of rain on the way. All of the speed has slow times to the wire and there are plenty of them. So it might get a little contentious. The horse I like most in the race is Common Defense. I like the Japanese sire and his two races. Just Steel looks like a nice even one for place or show, Liberal Arts to fill out the trifecta. Probably exacta and trifecta boxes here, but I'll wait until I see the pools to decide. If the track starts looking like a merry go round favoring speed I'll pass or just bet a nominal amount to make it fun...
bisket is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-03-2024, 05:25 PM   #8
bisket
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,431
$20 ex box
1$ tri and super box
bisket is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-03-2024, 05:39 PM   #9
PalaceOfFortLarned
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,106
WPS
EX
PalaceOfFortLarned is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-03-2024, 05:51 PM   #10
PalaceOfFortLarned
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onesome View Post
/ pour moi
Well done.
PalaceOfFortLarned is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-03-2024, 05:53 PM   #11
bisket
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,431
liberal arts looks good going forward. ran along with the field and a nice run in the stretch. Nice race off 4 works
bisket is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-05-2024, 11:43 AM   #12
bisket
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,431
This was the one track I could get a reliable variant.
bisket is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply





Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:06 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.