Hollywood Park 05/07

[redeye007]

late pick 4 hol 5/7

Race 5

Race 6

Race 7

Race 8

best bet 6/1 race 8

good luck

[redeye007]

hol pick 6 5/7 I'll take a cheap shot

Race 3

race 4

race 5

race 6

race 7

race 8

[pic6vic]

Originally Posted by redeye007

late pick 4 hol 5/7

Race 5

Race 6

Race 7

Race 8

best bet 6/1 race 8

good luck

This is what I do not understand about playing the pick 4. This ticket cost $36 yet his best bet is the #9 in the last leg and that combination only cost $12 if singled. This is the best bet but then you musy lay out another $24 to play the pick 4. I do not understand the rational of this wager. can anyone explain spending double the amount against you best bet.

Thanks

[CBedo]

Originally Posted by pic6vic

This is what I do not understand about playing the pick 4. This ticket cost $36 yet his best bet is the #9 in the last leg and that combination only cost $12 if singled. This is the best bet but then you musy lay out another $24 to play the pick 4. I do not understand the rational of this wager. can anyone explain spending double the amount against you best bet.

Thanks

I'm no expert, but I'll give you my opinion. If you look at playing a horse just to win, you obviously should be looking for value, not just trying to hit the winner. On the other extreme, usually (I know you always want value), when you are playing the pick 6, you are trying to just hit it with one ticket.

My opinion is that playing the Pick 4, with it falling somewhere in the middle, is a balancing act. I often play the pick 3s using a key horse method, where I have a key in each race, and play him with the contenders in the other legs. So if you have 3 contenders in each leg, the ticket costs 27 for 1, the same as playing a 3x3x3 ticket, but if your stronger opionions win, you can hit it multiple times, thus getting more value for your picks. For me, I sometimes play the pick 4 this way, and sometimes play the "just hit it" ticket. It really depends on the strength of my opinions and how I project the public to act. If your best bet of the day is a 25/1 horse, then you really just want to hit the other legs. If you're best bet is a 3/5 shot, then you better find some value. I guess it all comes down to how do I get the maximum value I can while not having longer losing streaks than necessary.

With regards to not singling your best bet of the day, I guess it depends on how you define "best bet." Often my best bets are not the most likely to win, they are the best value. So I might make a horse 4/1 but figure him to go off at 20/1. Although on a value basis, he may be a single, I still may use other horses to reduce the losing streak variance.

Hope that made some sense and answered your question (probably not).

[CBedo]

Good luck today redeye. I probably won't be handicapping today. If I get a chance to look at the late pick 4, I'll post it.

[redeye007]

Originally Posted by redeye007

late pick 4 hol 5/7

Race 5

Race 6

Race 7

Race 8

best bet 6/1 race 8

good luck

5-7-9 all scratched out of race 8. I guess that makes the #1 a heavy favorite

[redeye007]

Originally Posted by pic6vic

This is what I do not understand about playing the pick 4. This ticket cost $36 yet his best bet is the #9 in the last leg and that combination only cost $12 if singled. This is the best bet but then you musy lay out another $24 to play the pick 4. I do not understand the rational of this wager. can anyone explain spending double the amount against you best bet.

Thanks

I should have stated the #9 in race 8 was a good chance bet based on pedigree and possible value but she's out. all 3 of my longshots in the 8th are out. $48 pick 4 is now a $12 ticket.

[redeye007]

Originally Posted by redeye007

hol pick 6 5/7 I'll take a cheap shot

Race 3

race 4

race 5

race 6

race 7

race 8

I'll use the chaulk horse #1 in race 8 with 5,7,9 late scratches.

[surfdog89]

8th 2 year old fillys......... I like the unbridled horse .....(4) Solis is in the irons..... Been in the slow period....... in his career...... good workouts.... looks live...... trying to beat the MSP dropper (1)

[redeye007]

Originally Posted by redeye007

I'll use the chaulk horse #1 in race 8 with 5,7,9 late scratches.

one down, 5 to go

[surfdog89]

late pick three
all with 2 and 5 with 1 and 4

[CBedo]

6th race (quick look) looks pretty wide open to me. I'll take a shot with the Mandella horse, Argenta the . I thnk she likes this surface (at least Mandella thinks so), and was in tight last time and may have been faster than she showed.

[Burls]

HOL R

EXB,TBX

/ / P3