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Old 03-28-2017, 12:37 AM   #181
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I think you only have to go back to 2010 and Zenyatta, or go back to 1996 and Cigar.....Not as long ago as you think.

Neither of those were as talented IMO.
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Old 03-28-2017, 12:43 AM   #182
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Neither of those were as talented IMO.
He's on his way, that's for sure.....Let's see what the rest of the year brings for all-time great status to be cemented in history.
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Old 03-28-2017, 03:08 AM   #183
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Neither of those were as talented IMO.
Unrealized potential isn't the same as greatness.

Cigar and Zenyatta were "greats" whereas Arrogate will almost surely not be one because Cigar and Zenyatta had long careers with lots of Grade I races.

The fact that Arrogate is as fast as he is just makes it more of an outrage that he has such an incomplete career.
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Old 03-28-2017, 08:05 AM   #184
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There's always a market for the Outrage Industry.
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Old 03-28-2017, 09:09 AM   #185
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Awww hell, he won a couple of other semi-important races too...like the Haskell, and the often maligned Breeders' Cup Classic.

But who's counting?
That he did. The way fans and the industry feel about the long-awaited next TC winner has fallen short of expectations though. CC has more hype and fans. I can only reason that longevity is more important than even winning the TC.
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Old 03-28-2017, 09:13 AM   #186
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Since you forgot to mention Cigar, which was also a point from my reply, from October 29, 1994 thru July 13, 1996, Cigar won 16 straight races, tying the record at that time of Citation, ELEVEN of those races were Grade 1's......The incomparable Cigar!
He was the first and last to bring a tear to the eye with a winning race. I felt that I was watching a great. I was just keeping it to the past decade or so though.
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Old 03-28-2017, 09:28 AM   #187
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Here's the bottom line on Arrogate today.

Almost every single one of us who were watching the DWC live, shortly after the start, said to ourselves, oh well, it was nice while it lasted, but it's going to take a miracle to win this race with the trip he's getting...breaking dead last and going wide wide wide...come on...admit it...you thought there was no way in hell he was going to win that race...let alone win with ease.

This horse became a legend in Dubai...and that's that.
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Old 03-28-2017, 09:47 AM   #188
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Here's the bottom line on Arrogate today.

Almost every single one of us who were watching the DWC live, shortly after the start, said to ourselves, oh well, it was nice while it lasted, but it's going to take a miracle to win this race with the trip he's getting...breaking dead last and going wide wide wide...come on...admit it...you thought there was no way in hell he was going to win that race...let alone win with ease.

This horse became a legend in Dubai...and that's that.
He was up against it, it was a great performance, but I'm in the group that says it is over the top to take the Baffert position that he was dead out of the gate. A superior horse with a superior jockey can overcome the adversity. I've seen plenty of speed horses miss their break, not get pushed by the jockey to make the "death move" into the pace, instead patiently riding the horse and winning. Horses like Arrogate with push button speed don't necessarily need the lead, they just instinctively prefer being at the head of the herd. I watched the race a few times, and Arrogate looked like he was always moving well. He never lost interest. He was a superior horse to begin with. It wasn't like Moreno getting shuffled to last in the BC Classic. Moreno was a need to lead type and really did lose all chance.
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Old 03-28-2017, 09:52 AM   #189
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A superior horse with a superior jockey can overcome the adversity.
Most certainly...but a lot of them don't...especially these days. How many Grade 1 winners and millionaires were in that race Saturday? It wasn't like he overcame adversity against a full field of allowance runners.
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Old 03-28-2017, 09:54 AM   #190
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Songbird had those same margins...No? I am not big on margin of victory.

I would rather look at pace and trips, figures as a better barometer.
I don't want to turn this into another of my debates about figures, but imo beyond very general assertions of fast/slow they are sometimes not particularly accurate or reflective of quality. The further back in time you go, the worse it gets.

IMO, the magic formula is who beat who, by how much, how consistently, with what trips (pace, bias, ground loss, race flow), given how races develop on that surface. I pay special attention to how the horse performed under extreme conditions.

Songbird has had quite a few big winning margins. That says nothing alone. The idea would be evaluate the quality of the horses behind her, how they did when they weren't up against her, how they did when they went outside the division, how easily horses from lower divisions were able to move up and compete with them. They were fine away from her, but not so much outside the 3yo division. I don't think she was killing especially good 3yo filly routers, but she was killing them. IMO, Songbird proved she was better than her harshest critics thought anyway. Now we see if she can move forward another notch at 4.
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Old 03-28-2017, 10:04 AM   #191
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Here's the bottom line on Arrogate today.

Almost every single one of us who were watching the DWC live, shortly after the start, said to ourselves, oh well, it was nice while it lasted, but it's going to take a miracle to win this race with the trip he's getting...breaking dead last and going wide wide wide...come on...admit it...you thought there was no way in hell he was going to win that race...let alone win with ease.

This horse became a legend in Dubai...and that's that.
I have a slightly different take.

That's the point I was trying to make in an earlier post.

When I saw him get away like that, my first thought was "oh crap". But my second thought was "at least horses are winning from way back there today and Smith is not panicking and rushing him up into contention. It's not hopeless".

IMHO, people's initial reactions wers based what they see "in general", but both the track and ride were perfect for trying to overcome that start. Horses were closing, horses were making wide winning moves, and Smith was patient.

It was tough, especially when you consider the top few did not collapse, but imo it wasn't a killer trip.
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Old 03-28-2017, 10:25 AM   #192
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Most certainly...but a lot of them don't...especially these days. How many Grade 1 winners and millionaires were in that race Saturday? It wasn't like he overcame adversity against a full field of allowance runners.
We agree it was a superior performance. I think back to Secretariat's Triple Crown races, Seattle Slew's Jockey Club Gold Cup against Exceller, Forego's win against Honest Pleasure in the Marlboro Cup, and certainly Zenyatta in the BC Classic, and I'm not sure I'd rank Arrogate's win higher than those. Perhaps the degrees of separation between great performances are too difficult to quantify.
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Old 03-28-2017, 10:27 AM   #193
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He was up against it, it was a great performance, but I'm in the group that says it is over the top to take the Baffert position that he was dead out of the gate.
I'm in that group, too. I never thought it was over for him. When he straightened out of the first turn, I thought he was in a decent spot. And when he began passing others, a win was not only conceivable, but likely. It was fun to watch.
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Old 03-28-2017, 10:30 AM   #194
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For the record, there were 9 millionaires in the field (besides Arrogate), at least three other US Grade 1 winners plus a host of international Grade 1 winners...
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Old 03-28-2017, 11:00 AM   #195
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In all this talk about the greatness or lack of, for a horse let's talk about the greatness of a person. In my opinion a great person is able to completely seize and live within the moment at hand and not be a prisoner of his own small and dusty reason. Enjoy the moment while it lasts. This is a great horse being debated by many poor human beings!
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