Rolling Vulnerable Chalk thread for Saratoga and Del Mar. Need reasons why vulnerable

[Robert Fischer]

nice job Asaro and First Juice on Sat.

need some more today !

Originally Posted by 1st time lasix

At Spa Sunday… race 4 ml favorite Two Thirty Five is possibly vulnerable. Six year old comIng off hard fought win….which was all time Beyer top in this colt’s 46th race Noticed that previous two was running with Crypto Cash who recently flopped as odds-on chalk at lower level Jockey opts to ride another entry. Needs perfect trip to come from behind. Only Spa appearance was below par without a local published work. Not my cup of tea. Not using. Will see.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

that race is tough for me. I don't have a great read of it, and what I do think I see looks highly competitive.

War Stopper - numbers fit. Falcone is established enough that I can't say he's 'trying to prove' or 'has a chip on his shoulder', but this is a private purchase or transfer from Pletcher for him to run in Saratoga.

Locally Owned - 10/1 horse with a record of bounce-back big performances, running for a dangerous owner.

Indimaaj - potential speed for Diodoro.

Truculent - seems a notch below these but has kept over-achieving. Now he's claimed by Maker/Paradise and had 43 days w/ new outfit. Apprehension of improved fitness/form off claim.

Zoomer - class and figures fit fine, coming off some difficult setups in class and flow.

Two Thirty Five - 2 camps - Either a bed/breakfast and a picnic table in Saratoga or a Canoe trip Southern Appalachia. No 2 camps his last performance/fig was an abberation or legit. Good setup, a couple/few rival favs non factor.

Crafty Daddy - Not a well known claiming trainer of name, but this horse was signficantly favored over Truculent last time as well as claimed for this meet.


I'll very likely pass. Mildly tempted to use the in a couple flyer type wagers, if Locally Owned is the 6th or 7th choice but it's not like I'm seeing legit running to bet back.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

nice job Asaro and First Juice on Sat.

need some more today !








War Stopper - numbers fit. Falcone is established enough that I can't say he's 'trying to prove' or 'has a chip on his shoulder', but this is a private purchase or transfer from Pletcher for him to run in Saratoga.

Locally Owned - 10/1 horse with a record of bounce-back big performances, running for a dangerous owner.

Indimaaj - potential speed for Diodoro.

Truculent - seems a notch below these but has kept over-achieving. Now he's claimed by Maker/Paradise and had 43 days w/ new outfit. Apprehension of improved fitness/form off claim.

Zoomer - class and figures fit fine, coming off some difficult setups in class and flow.

Two Thirty Five - 2 camps - Either a bed/breakfast and a picnic table in Saratoga or a Canoe trip Southern Appalachia. No 2 camps his last performance/fig was an abberation or legit. Good setup, a couple/few rival favs non factor.

Crafty Daddy - Not a well known claiming trainer of name, but this horse was signficantly favored over Truculent last time as well as claimed for this meet.


I'll very likely pass. Mildly tempted to use the in a couple flyer type wagers, if Locally Owned is the 6th or 7th choice but it's not like I'm seeing legit running to bet back.

The thread is helping me focus. And the interaction is great. Right on.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

The thread is helping me focus. And the interaction is great. Right on.

sometimes when you tweet or type a play, it goes through some extra step/filter.

can be a good thing

[Andy Asaro]

The favorite in this race looks good. I just think that the tables will be turned today based on my reasoning here. Didn't see a lot of favs to toss today. GL

Twitter

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

The favorite in this race looks good. I just think that the tables will be turned today based on my reasoning here. Didn't see a lot of favs to toss today. GL


https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...18629482401792

That was a good pick.

Asymmetric was cold on the board.

It's possible that the Pick-3 just bet the lesser Noballs because of Irad. If so that's a lot of silly money to be like 40% lower P3 Will-Pay than the p3 of the better

Then, Ward made that unexpected error (or Jamie Spencer had a rogue brainfart) of rating and not sending.

change of tactics, and speed finished 3rd, 2nd.

Those, you just shake off and move forward.

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[1st time lasix]

Spa Thursday…. 7th race the 2 horse from Chad’s barn is 5/2 ML….5 yr old going short on turf will certainly take money. The 1 5 and 7 will likely be “sent” in this race. The 3 and 6 show better closing pace figs Irad not riding this time -although Franco is fine. May be vulnerable. Not using in horizontals. Will see.

[Andy Asaro]

https://www.capitalotbhandicapping.c...oga-racecourse



Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #3 Barzini Race 10 - #5 Margaret Burbidge

[Parkview_Pirate]

The opening day card at Del Mar tomorrow looks fabulous. Glad to see it - I think I've only played So Cal twice this year. 4 PM CDT start too - I like that too.

Outside of Sar and Dmr, the Haskell may have a vulnerable favorite on Saturday, as Derby runners Cyberknife, Taiba (now trained officially again by Baffert), and White Abarrio try to beat Jack Christopher.

Just not sure who to bet against, yet.

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[1st time lasix]

I have two potential vulnerable heavily bet chalks at Spa on Friday. Both trained by Todd.Pletcher. I understand how strong he is upstate- but not all win I suspect both will take serious money. Race 5 - the 8 horse owned by Repole. Blinkers off dropping in class after finishing 2nd at Monmouth at odds on. Will have to work out a trip coming from behind Two previous races at Spa were poor. Race 10… expensive NY filly facing winners for first time I see she has never passed a horse and last race was against smallish field where she beat a modestly bred first timer. Lofty Beyer with those connections suggests she will take a ton of action Friday in big field where four others may “send”. She will have to pass this time. Not the strongest bunch however. Will see. I am now 4 for 4 posting vulnerable favorites here that have disappointed. Good luck.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

That was a good pick.

Asymmetric was cold on the board.

It's possible that the Pick-3 just bet the lesser Noballs because of Irad. If so that's a lot of silly money to be like 40% lower P3 Will-Pay than the p3 of the better

Then, Ward made that unexpected error (or Jamie Spencer had a rogue brainfart) of rating and not sending.

change of tactics, and speed finished 3rd, 2nd.

Those, you just shake off and move forward.

I think the was blinkers off, so I'd deduce that it was Ward who elected to take back.

[pic6vic]

DMR 5TH #9 smokin cheena 5/2

Both of her races the winners came back to win a stake. should be well bet vs CAL BREDS, however the outside pot#9 for babies has to be trouble. Some decent FTS. Not picking a winner, but # 4 DANZING CAT is my choice.

GOOD LUCK

[Andy Asaro]

https://www.capitalotbhandicapping.c...oga-racecourse

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #1 Indemnify

[Andy Asaro]

https://www.capitalotbhandicapping.c...oga-racecourse


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 11 - #8 Catch That Party