Since nobody picks Freehold...

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

...and I think its a tough card, today. Preference for the later races.

R1 -- 1,2,4,6
R2 -- 1,5,8
R3 -- 2,3
R4 -- 1,4,6,7 (BET AGAINST MORNING LINE FAVORITE - 2)
R5 -- 4,5
R6 -- 8,4,7,2 (IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE)
R7 -- 1 (KEY TO GIMMICKS),4,5,6
R8 -- FLIGHT DECK N (STRONG BET),5,1 (PAIR A DICE MIGHT BE 50-1 FROM THE RAIL - GREAT IN THE MONEY SHOT)
R9 -- 2,4
R10 - 5,7,3 (IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE)
R11 - 1 (SUNSHINE WEST -- BEST BET), 4(12-1 SPORTY ALEX IS VERY USEABLE IN GIMMICKS)

[Ray2000]

Nice Straight Exacta call in R11 ... $29



Interesting price on the Race 9-10-11 Pic3
...your 3 picks were

a 4/5 with a 5/2 with a 1/5, (2-5-1) and paid $49.40

Must have been a No Sharks Day at Freehold

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

Nice Straight Exacta call in R11 ... $29



Interesting price on the Race 9-10-11 Pic3
...your 3 picks were

a 4/5 with a 5/2 with a 1/5, (2-5-1) and paid $49.40

Must have been a No Sharks Day at Freehold

This is the strength of horizontal bets. All three winners were not considered that strong in the morning line. The m/l on the winners were 7-1, 5-1, 3-1, respectively. The 3-1 m/l horse in the last race who paid only $2.60, was NOT the m/l fave. Players who followed the individual horses knew their strengths and bet accordingly, but not necessarily the strengths of the other horses.

How about the 8th race? My listed STRONG BET won easily and started off the $98 pick-4 -- only 6 combos to hit each winning pick-4 ticket -- and the cold trifecta (4-5-1) which only paid $22 even though PAIR A DICE (1) was 28-1. The value was the win bet at $5. IMO, FLIGHT DECK N had a much better figure than the 1-2 shot who he ended up beating easily .

Also, note my comment on the 4th race. I bet trifectas without using the even money choice on top. BOLDER (1) won at 10-1 and the trifecta paid $191.

Yes, it was a very good day.

[Sea Biscuit]

Originally Posted by Jess Hawsen Arown

Also, note my comment on the 4th race. I bet trifectas without using the even money choice on top. BOLDER (1) won at 10-1 and the trifecta paid $191.

Yes, it was a very good day.

In the 4th race your picks were 1-4-6-7 and they finished 1-2-6-3


Bravo on your good day.

[EdZone]

hmmm.. I didn't know you bet the 9-10-11 pick 3. All I know your best bet paid $2.60 for win.

[Ray2000]

Originally Posted by EdZone

hmmm.. I didn't know you bet the 9-10-11 pick 3. All I know your best bet paid $2.60 for win.

I didn't mean he played it, I was just remarking on the stunning payoff for 3 heavy faves.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit

In the 4th race your picks were 1-4-6-7 and they finished 1-2-6-3

I'm glad you brought that up. I hope some of you think this might be a conversation worth having regarding betting styles.

You will note that this was the only race where I added BET AGAINST MORNING LINE FAVORITE- 2 next to my selection of possible winners.

If there is a race where I believe the favorite is highly vulnerable, I frequently spread exotics omitting the favorite from the top of the ticket. This was one of those situations. The 2-horse, FORBETTOR OR WORSE is an aged pacing mare who just beat cheaper with a perfect trip and was now stepping up in class. You could be sure she would be overbet because at Freehold, the ANDY MILLER / NICK SURICK combination is ALWAYS overbet. She was actually 1-2 when I made the bet, then she drifted up to even money.

There are all kinds of ways to bet a race. Sometimes I bet ON a horse, and sometimes I bet AGAINST against a horse if that horse is a big favorite who I believe is vulnerable.

The way I ended up betting the race was a trifecta spread using the 1-4-6-7 on top. I also used the favorite and one other horse on the trifecta ticket as non-winners. I had extra tickets with the favorite second and third, knowing that the trifecta would be very large if she was off the ticket entirely.

Don't know if anyone else does this. I do it a lot. If the favorite wins in these cases -- I lose -- no just-in-case bets chasing better-than-losing cashes.

[Ray2000]

Here's an angle or gimmick bet I’ve been using for years involving trifecta wagering at the harness races.

Look for a race where there is a very fast horse, usually a trotter but sometimes pacers, who will be an odds-on favorite but makes a lot of breaks. The crowd will always over bet this horse in the exotics . The way to take advantage of this is to handicap the race looking for another horse that has the best chance to place and one that has the best chance to show even if the usual breaker stays flat. A high "on the board percentage" is important, and favorable posts. Use these two horses (with all others) in the pattern below. Let Horse “P” be your Pick to Place, and Horse “S” be your show.

Buy (4) – 1$ Trifecta part-wheels…

P with S with All
P with All with S
S with P with All
All with P with S

Note.. If “P” does place and “S” does show you have all outcomes covered. Costs $32 in 10 horse field

The idea here is that if the favorite wins you’ll still have a good chance of cashing a small “Insurance” ticket but if he does break you’ll be in a position to cash a large sum especially if the longest shot on the board wins the race.

Here's an example in tonight's Pokie R11

The 5 Rockin The House-3/1, has top TM speed and class numbers but has trouble with breaks on leaving the gate.
The 2 is a good horse to use for Place. 28 for 71 (~40%) OTB
The 3 has been hampered with outside post but draws well tonight, use for Show.

Gimmick is :
2 with 3 with all
2 with all with 3
3 with 2 with all
all with 2 with 3

9 horse field, $28

I would rather have a heavier fave but let's see if it works.

GLA

[Sea Biscuit]

Originally Posted by Jess Hawsen Arown

The way I ended up betting the race was a trifecta spread using the 1-4-6-7 on top. I also used the favorite and one other horse on the trifecta ticket as non-winners. I had extra tickets with the favorite second and third, knowing that the trifecta would be very large if she was off the ticket entirely.

Just as I thought. This is just another red board from you. You have been red boarding this forum for quite a while.

Cease and desist.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit

Just as I thought. This is just another red board from you. You have been red boarding this forum for quite a while.

Cease and desist.

Just as I thought. This is just another blue balls from you. You have been blue balling this forum for quite a while. Cease and desist.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

Buy (4) – 1$ Trifecta part-wheels…

P with S with All
P with All with S
S with P with All
All with P with S

GLA

I have a friend who does something similar with dime supers. He'll bet "all" on top, then one or two short priced horse for second and third, then multiple horses for fourth.

I know he doesn't do all for fourth all the time because he frequently bemoans losing 4th.

It is against my "religion" to use all on top, (although I am thinking about it for this new survivor bet because of the structure).

In fact, I frequently eliminate only 1-horse in the back end of gimmicks. I have lost bets because of that, but it seems to me, the money saved outweighs the occasional blow. In addition, if you use multiple horses on top, the additional money saved by eliminating just one horse can be used to buy multiple tickets on the numbers you like best.

As we all know, every angle we bet loses and wins from time to time. It is up to the bettor to honestly evaluate his profit and loss based on using/not using horses he did not like.

[Ray2000]

That dime super approach is interesting...

My Pokie example came out the most hurtful way.

The Place pick Showed, The Show pick Placed and the heavy fave won anyway.

5-3-2 paid $15.50