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Old 07-18-2017, 10:38 AM   #46
CincyHorseplayer
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Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09 View Post
Cincy,

Thanks, we think alike. In my opinion the way to win money at this great meeting is to be very selective in your wagering waiting for the right spot to beat a race, and the fact is that some times you wait for a whole day and not find a suitable spot. I am rewarded greatly when I select a winner at Saratoga as I am getting great value 8/1 on a horse that would be 5/1 downstate at Belmont. That's what the game is all about value, and there is plenty of value at the Spa...but we must beware of the numerous traps this meet presents to even the most disciplined players. Good Luck Cincy hoping you have a sensational meeting!
Absolutely. It was because of this meet that I started to develop criteria for a basic yes/no for exotic potential. Because IMO they are so slippery as contention runs deep and many surprises land in the money. My win % at this meet is par for what my win % has been since 2001 but my win/place % is woeful compared to my par. Because I construct exotics around a win or place finish this is big. So like yourself I bet more to win. My saving grace is my average mutuel for the last 5 years on all surfaces is 14.95 albeit higher by $1 on turf. This meet because of this reality also has transformed me into a horizontal wager player and I am decent at that. It is amazing that such extreme contention brings out the best self analysis too. Getting your ass kicked on certain days is a reality. Period. The ability to shake it off is key. I don't see any of that as taking the shine off the romance. I see Faulkner's "Light In August" and it's at Saratoga racetrack! Win, horizontal, and the exotics I do play are aimed at pure crush or nothing. Biases are huge too. I think it was 2014 and both turf courses were playing to inside speed and big closers were dead. Finding EP types with big finishes was hog heaven. Anyway I usually get a double digit bomber or 2 at this meet. Fingers crossed!

Last edited by CincyHorseplayer; 07-18-2017 at 10:40 AM.
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Old 07-18-2017, 12:25 PM   #47
BELMONT 6-6-09
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Cincy,

You have a number of factors in your favor as a horseplayer (1) you have a definite plan (2) you have a brutal honesty about your strengths and weaknesses in this game (3) You have a sense of confidence (4) you love playing the game.

I am so far behind in the exotic end of the game simply because I dread the losing runs and thus the reason I make cold or 1X2 exacta or doubles on occasion to simply dramatically improve the win R.O.I., and occasionally a P3 if I have two strong opinions in the sequence. I admire the true exotic player who can fire away and deal with the huge upswings and downswings of their betting banks. To me, their are too may variables which lead the bad beats/extended losing runs.

In my opinion too may people take flyers (Action Bets), to wait for their key betting races to arrive. For most this is bad in the fact that these wagers add up in the loss column. Others will argue that they help keep focus and such on the track bias etc, maybe true for some but I do believe these action bets become compulsive to many and throw a player off his game as the losses add up.

Well anyway Saratoga is close and I wish all good luck because once the meeting starts it seems the Travers is over and the meet is about to end.
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Old 07-26-2017, 12:24 PM   #48
ReplayRandall
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
I'm going to give you a little "info" that you should watch.

The jockey agent for Rajiv Maragh and Hector Diaz Jr is Tony Micallef....

I would start following the mounts of these 2 riders at Saratoga, specifically who the trainers and owners are. Could pay big dividends, as Tony has been really working it for the past month....Different twists, get different results...Good luck Slim, you never know $$$
Today might be a winning day for Rajiv, as he has some interesting mounts, plus a solid chalk in the 9th...Hector pops in for just 1 mount in the finale, worth a look.
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Old 07-26-2017, 07:59 PM   #49
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Hector pops in for just 1 mount in the finale, worth a look.
Winner for Diaz paying $13.00....
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Old 08-03-2017, 07:51 PM   #50
Panamaslim94
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
Winner for Diaz paying $13.00....
Randall losing my arzz at the spa need some winners havent seen a pick from you in a week hurry help pleazzze
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