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06-15-2017, 11:24 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
It seems that back to back wins are usually followed by a loss for the Morning Line 2/1 Maidens on the Dirt at Belmont going 1 Mile or better
Let's see what happens today as there is a Morning Line 2/1 Maiden in the 6th race today at Belmont on the Dirt going at 1 Mile
6th race
#1 Pirates Treasure
Let's see what happens!!!
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Well we were correct the Morning Line 2/1 Maidens on the Dirt going 1 Mile or better after back to back wins were followed by losses 4 times going back to May 2016
Today was no different as #1 Pirates Treasure finished 2nd in the 6th race today
Hopefully, the next Maiden with a 2/1 Morning Line on the Dirt going 1 Mile or better will win
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06-15-2017, 11:41 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Here are the Morning Line 5/2's entered at Distances of 1 Mile or better at Belmont today
4th race
#4 Kitty Maddnes
6th race
#6 Sicilia Mike
Let's see if one of these can get the win today at Belmont!!!
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Well #6 Sicilia Mike finished 3rd as a 5/2 Morning Line going 1 Mile or better
However, #4 Kitty Maddnes won the 4th race and paid $18.20 across the board not too shabby for a $2 win place and show wager!!!
The Morning Line 5/2's at Belmont have been on fire since June 10th winning 12 of their last 21 giving you an 83% return per $2 win wager!!!
In addition, when they have been entered at Distances of 1 Mile or better they are 6 for their last 9
You are getting 118% on your money per $2 win wager
I will continue to keep an eye on this trend for as long as it lasts at Belmont!!!
Congratulations to those who saw the play and was able to make a profit!!!
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06-16-2017, 12:37 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Well #6 Sicilia Mike finished 3rd as a 5/2 Morning Line going 1 Mile or better
However, #4 Kitty Maddnes won the 4th race and paid $18.20 across the board not too shabby for a $2 win place and show wager!!!
The Morning Line 5/2's at Belmont have been on fire since June 10th winning 12 of their last 21 giving you an 83% return per $2 win wager!!!
In addition, when they have been entered at Distances of 1 Mile or better they are 6 for their last 9
You are getting 118% on your money per $2 win wager
I will continue to keep an eye on this trend for as long as it lasts at Belmont!!!
Congratulations to those who saw the play and was able to make a profit!!!
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Here are today's Morning Line 5/2's going 1 Mile or better at Belmont
5th race
#5 Party Mint Star
7th race
#4 Phat Man (MTO)
Let's see if one of these can get the win today!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 06-16-2017 at 12:38 PM.
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06-16-2017, 01:19 PM
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#34
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,878
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I've been following this thread because I find "trend following" an interesting approach to handicap.
Oracle, have you considered that looking backwards, one will always be able to see what HAS BEEN HOT?
If you doubt that, just go to a casino and stand next to a roulette wheel.
One may see patterns based upon color, odd or even, halves or thirds, and occasionally things really outlandish.
I mean no disrespect, but what you are doing here is REPORTING the PAST as opposed to PREDICTING the FUTURE.
All good fun but I would not put money on this.
Dave
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06-16-2017, 01:55 PM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I've been following this thread because I find "trend following" an interesting approach to handicap.
Oracle, have you considered that looking backwards, one will always be able to see what HAS BEEN HOT?
If you doubt that, just go to a casino and stand next to a roulette wheel.
One may see patterns based upon color, odd or even, halves or thirds, and occasionally things really outlandish.
I mean no disrespect, but what you are doing here is REPORTING the PAST as opposed to PREDICTING the FUTURE.
All good fun but I would not put money on this.
Dave
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Hey Dave
I can't predict the future but the best I can do is examine the past and try to learn from it, basically I have given up on handicapping it just doesn't work for me so I try to follow the streaks until they run their course
Believe it or not I have actually cashed more tickets following streaks than I ever have by handicapping some times at a profit
It's obviously not for everyone but for now it works for me
To each his own I guess
Also, to your point about the casinos red vs green or odd vs even those are the stats that intrigue me I guess I would rather be in the know than to just play randomly
It may not increase my chance of winning but I'm sure the casinos would rather not have people know those stats
So yes, Dave you are correct I am just reporting the past and hoping some of the trends hold I'm not trying to predict the future that's a bit beyond me right now
Last edited by TheOracle; 06-16-2017 at 02:01 PM.
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06-16-2017, 02:39 PM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I've been following this thread because I find "trend following" an interesting approach to handicap.
Oracle, have you considered that looking backwards, one will always be able to see what HAS BEEN HOT?
If you doubt that, just go to a casino and stand next to a roulette wheel.
One may see patterns based upon color, odd or even, halves or thirds, and occasionally things really outlandish.
I mean no disrespect, but what you are doing here is REPORTING the PAST as opposed to PREDICTING the FUTURE.
All good fun but I would not put money on this.
Dave
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Hey Dave
I've also added a new wrinkle when looking into the past I've started to examine the cold streaks also to see if they turn hot:
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Well #9 Bustin It busted through today for a win only paid $8.10 across the board
Sometimes you just have to take what they give you!!!
Let's see if a win streak emerges for the Morning Lines ending in 5 for Claimers on the Dirt in this situation!!!
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The Morning Line Favorites ending in 5 have been struggling in Claiming races at Belmont on the Dirt they have just 2 wins in their last 11 attempts since this post
There's a Morning Line ending in 5 in a Claiming race on the Dirt in the 1st race today at Belmont
1st race
#2 Wildcat Belle
Let's see if the wildcat can get a win streak going!!!
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06-16-2017, 02:54 PM
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#37
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,878
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Hey Dave
I can't predict the future but the best I can do is examine the past and try to learn from it, basically I have given up on handicapping it just doesn't work for me so I try to follow the streaks until they run their course
Believe it or not I have actually cashed more tickets following streaks than I ever have by handicapping some times at a profit
It's obviously not for everyone but for now it works for me
To each his own I guess
Also, to your point about the casinos red vs green or odd vs even those are the stats that intrigue me I guess I would rather be in the know than to just play randomly
It may not increase my chance of winning but I'm sure the casinos would rather not have people know those stats
So yes, Dave you are correct I am just reporting the past and hoping some of the trends hold I'm not trying to predict the future that's a bit beyond me right now
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My favorite quote (which I use over and over again) is, "If it is working for you, keep doing it."
And I do enjoy your reports.
Dave
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06-16-2017, 11:26 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Here are today's Morning Line 5/2's going 1 Mile or better at Belmont
5th race
#5 Party Mint Star
7th race
#4 Phat Man (MTO)
Let's see if one of these can get the win today!!!
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Well #5 Party Mint Star finished off the board breaking a streak of 6 in a row that hit the board
I will continue to keep an eye on Morning Line 5/2's going 1 Mile or better at Belmont !!!
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06-16-2017, 11:38 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Hey Dave
I've also added a new wrinkle when looking into the past I've started to examine the cold streaks also to see if they turn hot:
The Morning Line Favorites ending in 5 have been struggling in Claiming races at Belmont on the Dirt they have just 2 wins in their last 11 attempts since this post
There's a Morning Line ending in 5 in a Claiming race on the Dirt in the 1st race today at Belmont
1st race
#2 Wildcat Belle
Let's see if the wildcat can get a win streak going!!!
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The Morning Line 5ers continue to struggle in Claiming races on the Dirt they now have just 2 wins in their last 12 attempts at Belmont since opening day
I would not have suspected that the Morning Line 5ers would be struggling this much with Claiming races on the Dirt
Hopefully things will turn around to bring that win percentage up to around 35 to 40%!!!
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06-18-2017, 02:40 PM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Well #7 New Money Honey came through with a win hopefully there will be a few more wins on the way with the Morning Line 5ers in Stakes races on the Turf!!!
This now makes 20 of the last 23 finishing no worse than 2nd and you are getting a 30% return per $2 win wager in this situation!!!
Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!
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Roca Rojo finished off the board last week so the above percentages have changed
Let's see how #2 Projected does in the 8th race today at Belmont as he is listed at 6/5 in the Morning Line for the Stakes race at Belmont
It seems C C Brown has hedged the above with these:
#1 Night Prowler and #6 Catapult
Let's see what happens!!!
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06-20-2017, 09:53 AM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Roca Rojo finished off the board last week so the above percentages have changed
Let's see how #2 Projected does in the 8th race today at Belmont as he is listed at 6/5 in the Morning Line for the Stakes race at Belmont
It seems C C Brown has hedged the above with these:
#1 Night Prowler and #6 Catapult
Let's see what happens!!!
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http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...45#post2186945
It's very interesting that Brown had 3 horses entered in an 8 horse race
So that meant his horses had a 37.5% chance of winning and they some how managed to blow it of course he still picks up his earnings but the public is left scratching their heads
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06-22-2017, 11:34 PM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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The Morning Line 5/2 Claimers have been doing quite well on the Turf
They have won 7 of their last 8 races giving a 92% return per $2 win wager!!!
Let's see if they can keep it going for the rest of the Belmont season!!!
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06-24-2017, 12:17 PM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Since May 1st 2016, the Morning Lines ending in 5 have won 13 of their last 20 Stakes races on the Turf at Belmont
Per $2 win wager you are getting a 31% return on your money, in addition, 17 of the last 20 have finished no worse than 2nd
This is one of the trends that is yielding a positive return so far and my hope is that the trend continues a few more times before going cold!!!
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Since this post, the Morning Lines ending in 5 have won 15 of their last 25 Stakes races on the Turf at Belmont giving a 19% return per $2 win wager at Belmont
C C Brown has this today in the 8th race at Belmont
8th race
#6 Rubilinda
Interesting to note, the oddsmaker uses many of C C Brown's horses as the Morning Line Favorite
They have however lost their last 2 races and the last time back to back losses happened was on September 11, 2016
Let's see if #6 Rubilinda can get this trend back on the winning track today at Belmont!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 06-24-2017 at 12:20 PM.
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06-25-2017, 11:04 AM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Since this post, the Morning Lines ending in 5 have won 15 of their last 25 Stakes races on the Turf at Belmont giving a 19% return per $2 win wager at Belmont
C C Brown has this today in the 8th race at Belmont
8th race
#6 Rubilinda
Interesting to note, the oddsmaker uses many of C C Brown's horses as the Morning Line Favorite
They have however lost their last 2 races and the last time back to back losses happened was on September 11, 2016
Let's see if #6 Rubilinda can get this trend back on the winning track today at Belmont!!!
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#6 Rubilinda was scratched yesterday we will have to wait for another opportunity for this situation!!!
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09-10-2017, 12:22 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
The Morning Line 5/2 Claimers have been doing quite well on the Turf
They have won 7 of their last 8 races giving a 92% return per $2 win wager!!!
Let's see if they can keep it going for the rest of the Belmont season!!!
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Claimers who are 5/2 in the Morning Line on the Turf have been doing quite well this year and I missed Shamcat on opening day for Belmont's 2nd half!!!
Let's keep an eye on this phenomenon for the 2nd half of the Belmont season!!!
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