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Old 07-16-2017, 08:54 PM   #1
highnote
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netflix

Any thoughts on what Netflix will do over the next 5 or 6 months?

It is at 161 now. What is the probability that it hits 225 by January?
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Old 07-17-2017, 04:36 AM   #2
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Any thoughts on what Netflix will do over the next 5 or 6 months?

It is at 161 now. What is the probability that it hits 225 by January?
24%.
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Old 07-17-2017, 09:16 AM   #3
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It is at 161 now. What is the probability that it hits 225 by January?
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24%.
Oops. 24% is for January of 1919.

January of 1918 would be 16.5%

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Old 07-17-2017, 10:01 AM   #4
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Oops. 24% is for January of 1919.

January of 1918 would be 16.5%
I shouldn't try and do things without wearing my glasses. I posted June of 1918. January would be 10.5%

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Old 07-17-2017, 10:45 AM   #5
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i remember watching the FOX business block one saturday morning when Wayne Rodgers recommended NFLX at $26 per share as his number 1 pick for the year.

that guy played Captain Trapper in M*A*S*H, and had a lot of common sense with the markets.

i remember guys like him and not so good guys like Dan Dorfman that was a professional pump artist on FNN (financial new network to eventually become CNBC). not to many good ones that i ever saw on television.
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:55 PM   #6
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I shouldn't try and do things without wearing my glasses. I posted June of 1918. January would be 10.5%
Thanks!
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Old 07-17-2017, 04:40 PM   #7
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Seems like they should see subscriber growth slow or decline, you can get better content via open protocol Kodi or a multitude of other Apps on the Android platform
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Old 07-17-2017, 10:11 PM   #8
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In fiscal year ending 2016 Netflix earned $20 in free cash flow.

As a point of comparison
Netflix earned $10 in 2012, $12 in 2013, $14 in 2014 and $14.50 in 2015. It's been a money machine from jump street, and continues more so today.

If you buy Netflix now at $160, you are paying 8 times free cash flow (FCF). A great bargain for a great growing company. It's been a long term hold of mine for many years.

I have as my own estimate Netflix generating $23 FCF in 2018, and $25 in 2019.

At 8 times FCF, Netflix is worth about $185 in '18, and $200 in 2019.

At 10 times FCF, we're looking at $230 and $250, respectively.

I am told 15 times FCF is considered a 'fair' valuation for a public company. I have never in my adult life paid 15 times or more FCF for a company, btw.

So, at 15 times FCF, the 'fair' intrinsic value of Netflix is $300 right now; $345 next year and $375 in 2019.

One of the great bargains in today's market.

Last edited by reckless; 07-17-2017 at 10:13 PM.
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Old 07-18-2017, 04:20 PM   #9
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In fiscal year ending 2016 Netflix earned $20 in free cash flow.

As a point of comparison
Netflix earned $10 in 2012, $12 in 2013, $14 in 2014 and $14.50 in 2015. It's been a money machine from jump street, and continues more so today.

If you buy Netflix now at $160, you are paying 8 times free cash flow (FCF). A great bargain for a great growing company. It's been a long term hold of mine for many years.

I have as my own estimate Netflix generating $23 FCF in 2018, and $25 in 2019.

At 8 times FCF, Netflix is worth about $185 in '18, and $200 in 2019.

At 10 times FCF, we're looking at $230 and $250, respectively.

I am told 15 times FCF is considered a 'fair' valuation for a public company. I have never in my adult life paid 15 times or more FCF for a company, btw.

So, at 15 times FCF, the 'fair' intrinsic value of Netflix is $300 right now; $345 next year and $375 in 2019.

One of the great bargains in today's market.
Some on this Financial thread get most of the attention, even having others comment ... and one actually show you guys how to make money.

The very next day from my complete post above, we get this:

Netflix (NFLX) $183.63 +21.93 (13.56%) 3:59 pm 7/18/17
Netflix, Inc. | NASDAQ
Post-Market:$183.790.16 (0.09%)4:00 PM
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Old 07-18-2017, 04:47 PM   #10
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Seems like they should see subscriber growth slow or decline, you can get better content via open protocol Kodi or a multitude of other Apps on the Android platform
Successful angel investor Jason Calicanis made these two tweets today:

"Netflix will have 250m subscribers in 5 years."

"Ultimately, 10-30% of high speed internet users will have @Netflix--so 250m users will be conservative."
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Old 07-18-2017, 04:49 PM   #11
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Some on this Financial thread get most of the attention, even having others comment ... and one actually show you guys how to make money.

The very next day from my complete post above, we get this:

Netflix (NFLX) $183.63 +21.93 (13.56%) 3:59 pm 7/18/17
Netflix, Inc. | NASDAQ
Post-Market:$183.790.16 (0.09%)4:00 PM
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Old 07-18-2017, 07:09 PM   #12
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Been a Netflix subscriber for nearly a decade.

It is a good product, but seriously thinking about dropping. From an investment standpoint, I couldn't invest a dime in them. They have solid original content and exclusive stuff, but the cold hard reality is that they are still 3 months late on anything and everything out of the theater. And if it is anything good, much much later and likely not even a part of what you can view.

If I was to invest, it would be Fandango. They actually get "in the theater" movies, and even before the theater movies. At some point, I see it expanding to "real time" in which they will be able to broadcast actual real time movies the same time they are in the theater for even the good stuff that everybody wants to see.

Many people have theater type stuff in their own home. I'd likely pay double the cost of a new release movie to watch in my own home. Heck, you can package it as a "now" view and sale of having a bought film in your collection for $30 to $40 (maybe even more). Doesn't hurt Hollywood, and eliminates the over-expensive middle man.

All you need now is somebody to make some good popcorn for people at home.
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Old 07-18-2017, 07:24 PM   #13
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Some on this Financial thread get most of the attention, even having others comment ... and one actually show you guys how to make money.

The very next day from my complete post above, we get this:

Netflix (NFLX) $183.63 +21.93 (13.56%) 3:59 pm 7/18/17
Netflix, Inc. | NASDAQ
Post-Market:$183.790.16 (0.09%)4:00 PM
Looking for value and waiting (sometimes years) for the market to catch up is boring when you have the excitement of watching a dot on your computer screen move up and down all day.

NFLX checks all my boxes except that it doesn't pay a dividend. They invest so much back into the business (content is expensive) that I doubt they do for a very long time.

I sit enviously on the sidelines. It's okay though. There are enough that check every box for me. And rules are rules.
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Old 07-20-2017, 05:42 PM   #14
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Any thoughts on what Netflix will do over the next 5 or 6 months?

It is at 161 now. What is the probability that it hits 225 by January?


I think it will be around the $200 range by Dec this year
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Old 07-22-2017, 04:50 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by reckless View Post
In fiscal year ending 2016 Netflix earned $20 in free cash flow.

As a point of comparison
Netflix earned $10 in 2012, $12 in 2013, $14 in 2014 and $14.50 in 2015. It's been a money machine from jump street, and continues more so today.

If you buy Netflix now at $160, you are paying 8 times free cash flow (FCF). A great bargain for a great growing company. It's been a long term hold of mine for many years.

I have as my own estimate Netflix generating $23 FCF in 2018, and $25 in 2019.

At 8 times FCF, Netflix is worth about $185 in '18, and $200 in 2019.

At 10 times FCF, we're looking at $230 and $250, respectively.

I am told 15 times FCF is considered a 'fair' valuation for a public company. I have never in my adult life paid 15 times or more FCF for a company, btw.

So, at 15 times FCF, the 'fair' intrinsic value of Netflix is $300 right now; $345 next year and $375 in 2019.

One of the great bargains in today's market.
Per this article, this guy says Netflix struggles with free cash flow. Huh?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/408...ns-growth-ends

Quote:
Summary

Netflix has struggled with producing Free Cash Flow.

The Negative Free Cash Flow model has, however, produced great subscriber growth.

Netflix has a range of options to create a strong cash flow positive endgame.

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has been called everything. From the best investment for the future to a bubble in search of a pin. Just last week I addressed one growing concern that Netflix was not amortizing its content quickly enough. I analyzed the numbers and I thought it was doing a wonderful job, and perhaps was being too hard on itself. Still, the bigger issues remain. The cash flow statement looks atrocious.



Source: Netflix Annual reports

This is in spite of the income statement showing consistently positive earnings.



In fact, Netflix itself recognizes this issue and you can find it emphasizing this in its financial statement disclosures.



Yes. Straight from the horse's mouth. Warnings aside, one must be cognizant of the fact that Netflix has produced very large membership growth with this negative cash flow.
All I know is that Netflix has the luxury of letting you and your ISP carry the workload for all that bandwidth. I've read where in some areas Netflix is over half of the internet traffic from homes. Not sure how long that honeymoon lasts, with the competition between ISPs cutting margins to the bone.

As a side note, I tried Netflix for a couple of months, and was disappointed in their selection, especially of classic movies. Their original content didn't impress me either, but based on their subscription numbers, I must be an outlier.
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