It's getting ridiculous! - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Track Phantom · 04-19-2018, 10:33 PM

Been monitoring the late money flow now for two weeks, paying much closer attention to where the final flash of money is landing. I'm absolutely MOUTH ON THE FLOOR STUNNED, much, much more than I thought I'd be, at how accurate the late money is. Doesn't matter the morning line. 20-1, 15-1, 10-1. If they win, they are hit hard late.

There are a lot of things that could be fatal to this game but this phenomenon could be the beginning of the end. Every single horse player is disgusted by the late odds movements (which by the way, is disproportionately high on the winners) but the game does ZERO to understand why it's happening and remove negative perceptions. They will regret this inaction.

Do longshots win? Yes, at times. But very often those longshots end up being underlays even at double digits because of wise late money.

I have no idea how the late money is so accurate. Maybe someone has picked the lock in this game, maybe it's something else. Really doesn't matter.

We've had 5 consecutive years of Derby winning favorites and a superfecta that had the top 4 in exact order just 2 years ago. Now virtually every winner is bottom'd out after the general public bets. Harness racing may need to make space on the scrap heap.

JustRalph · 04-19-2018, 10:44 PM

We finally ran out of dumb money

Track Phantom · 04-19-2018, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustRalph

We finally ran out of dumb money

I thought about that after I typed this. Maybe 15-20 years ago the influx of casual or dumb money was greater. I really don't have a clue. I'll say this though. The game we are seeing today is virtually unrecognizable to the game I was introduced to. This odds dropper thing is fairly new (maybe 5-10 years at most) and has increased dramatically in the last two years.

There is a rhythm to the betting and a predictability based on the public tendencies. The new way of things has pushed that aside which means wherever and however this late money is getting into the pools, it is miles more accurate than anything normal handicapping can find.

If it continues at this pace, the game will cease in it's current form within 10 years.

Cholly · 04-19-2018, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustRalph

We finally ran out of dumb money

nope, I'm still here.

But I will say that Chollyworld is starting to feel like a very lonely planet...

SandyW · 04-19-2018, 11:42 PM

We have been listening to the death knell of racing for years and the the handle just keep going up.
Late money has been hitting the pools for as long as I can remember. I have been playing this game since 1958 and I'm still waiting for the next day's racing just as enthusiastic as ever.

Track Phantom · 04-19-2018, 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SandyW

We have been listening to the death knell of racing for years and the the handle just keep going up.
Late money has been hitting the pools for as long as I can remember. I have been playing this game since 1958 and I'm still waiting for the next day's racing just as enthusiastic as ever.

End of discussion, I guess.

thaskalos · 04-20-2018, 02:56 AM

In the 6th at Charles Town tonight...the

(Sir Longwood) took the lead and was shown on the screen to be at 18-1 odds at the quarter-mile marker. The horse was also 18-1 on the screen at the half mile. But, by the time the horse won the 6.5 furlong race, it stood at 8-1 on the board...proving that this late money doesn't just isolate on the "obvious overlays". But, hey...who would be greedy enough to complain about a $19.80 win-mutuel.

TiffaniO · 04-20-2018, 06:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

In the 6th at Charles Town tonight...the

(Sir Longwood) took the lead and was shown on the screen to be at 18-1 odds at the quarter-mile marker. The horse was also 18-1 on the screen at the half mile. But, by the time the horse won the 6.5 furlong race, it stood at 8-1 on the board...proving that this late money doesn't just isolate on the "obvious overlays". But, hey...who would be greedy enough to complain about a $19.80 win-mutuel.

I don’t know where you ever saw 18-1 during the race... this screenshot is 1/8 of a mile into the race... he’s 8-1 clearly.

thaskalos · 04-20-2018, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TiffaniO

I don’t know where you ever saw 18-1 during the race... this screenshot is 1/8 of a mile into the race... he’s 8-1 clearly.

WOW...I've got to get me some GLASSES!

Was he 18-1 before the start...or was I wrong about that too?

TiffaniO · 04-20-2018, 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

WOW...I've got to get me some GLASSES!

Was he 18-1 before the start...or was I wrong about that too?

I was going to suggest new glasses but I didn’t want to come off as a B lol

The last time I recall he was 9-1 with a few minutes to post.

thaskalos · 04-20-2018, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TiffaniO

I was going to suggest new glasses but I didn’t want to come off as a B lol

The last time I recall he was 9-1 with a few minutes to post.

This honestly makes me wonder about my state of mind as of late. I would have sworn that this horse was 18-1...even during the running of the race. What the heck could I have been watching?

castaway01 · 04-20-2018, 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SandyW

We have been listening to the death knell of racing for years and the the handle just keep going up.
Late money has been hitting the pools for as long as I can remember. I have been playing this game since 1958 and I'm still waiting for the next day's racing just as enthusiastic as ever.

The first sentence is factually incorrect. Handle peaked in 2003 (that's 15 years ago), plummeted in the latter part of the last decade, and has held near even in the past five years.

Handle was $15.1 billion in 2003 and $10.9 billion last year.

cj · 04-20-2018, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by castaway01

The first sentence is factually incorrect. Handle peaked in 2003 (that's 15 years ago), plummeted in the latter part of the last decade, and has held near even in the past five years.

Handle was $15.1 billion in 2003 and $10.9 billion last year.

Not to mention the only thing keeping handle steady for the most part is huge rebated players and CRW teams.

TiffaniO · 04-20-2018, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Not to mention the only thing keeping handle steady for the most part is huge rebated players and CRW teams.

Handle may be lower but there are also less race days and less races per day.

I’m sure the difference in both from 2003 to 2018 is staggering.

TiffaniO · 04-20-2018, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

This honestly makes me wonder about my state of mind as of late. I would have sworn that this horse was 18-1...even during the running of the race. What the heck could I have been watching?

What I’ve noticed is, I’ll see a horse that is 16-1 with a few minutes to post but his will pays suggest he’s 5 or 6-1 in those. Those are the horses that drop dramatically at post. I’m sure that is the computer programs realizing that and hammering them.

I got tired of seeing odds drop years ago, so the only time I’ve ever wagered to win on a horse were my own horses. I instead play trifectas, supers and pick 4s