THE INSANITY CURRENTLY GRIPPING THE INDUSTRY HAS TO END NOW!

[baconswitchfarm]

Nothing to see here. Move along.

[PaceAdvantage]

FINALLY....a speed horse I bet that basically has the front from start to finish but doesn't go down in odds...

Finale at CT.

Past posting dudes asleep at the wheel again.

And for anyone who accuses me of red boarding, I posted this in VIP way before the race went off.

[P Matties Jr]

Good pick. 7 and 8 were the late movers but the exacta still went down from $66 to $60

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

FINALLY....a speed horse I bet that basically has the front from start to finish but doesn't go down in odds...

Finale at CT.

Past posting dudes asleep at the wheel again.

And for anyone who accuses me of red boarding, I posted this in VIP way before the race went off.

Do the CRW guys ever pass a race?

[zawaaa]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

If the industry doesn't start seriously investigating and putting the breaks on whomever or whatever is causing this rampant and massive pool shenanigans, we the betting public will have no choice but to throw this game into the trash bin where it belongs under these current operating conditions.

the smart people bet late

the smartest guys bet even later

it's pretty simple stuff really

[Denny]

Anybody notice the tote action on #5 Black Stetson in yesterday's Bridgetown stakes at Aqueduct.

Parx shipper never raced on turf.

15-1 ML
Opened around 16 or17
Odds drifted up till post time.
Last time I noticed he was 29-1.
Race starts and he's 19-1 and goes a little lower during race.
Wins at 18_1.

At the gate he's going to pay $60 or more if he wins.

Pays $38.

Odds cut by more than a third.

Thing is, I think it was inside money - NOT crw.

He broke fifth and had to be hustled to the lead by Alvarado. The others then sort of let him go.

(There's a good write up at DRF with an interview with the connections.)

[Inglewood Flamingo]

I was hired and relocated to live offshore and work on a whale project that involved real money, and a real think tank of analytical minds behind it.

While their main focus was HK, they were involved in US TB pools daily. Signal delay is a huge problem that did exist, at least then. We had access to the Roberts’s feed, TVG, YouBet, and a computer feed from a legit offshore rebate shop. I don’t think I need to tell you which one was the most accurate, or the one with the least delay until real post...

10 second advantage on a good race. Usually less, but enough to get your shit together before the gate opens.

Then of course there was always a call to the press box to confirm if necessary, but then you had to be concerned with audio phone data transfer delays...

[Inglewood Flamingo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...the only way to predict the closing odds with any decree of accuracy is by "handicapping" the late-betting Whales. And, since their handicapping and betting methods are WAY more sophisticated than ours...that isn't likely to ever happen. And...if things get even worse for us in the future, which is exactly what we both think will happen...then, good night Irene.

Thask, I’ve been away a long time but always respect & enjoy your posts.

What have I missed with your closing sentence in this post?...

Garett-

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Inglewood Flamingo

Thask, I’ve been away a long time but always respect & enjoy your posts.

What have I missed with your closing sentence in this post?...

Garett-

Hi Garett...and thanks for the compliment about my posts. I didn't mean anything "esoteric" with my closing sentence in that post. It's just that, as the long-time horseplayers continue to abandon this game...the Whale-money will end up occupying a larger and larger position in the mutuel pools...and these drastic late-odds changes that we see now will only get more and more noticeable as time passes. So...those of us who have a hard time dealing with the odds-changes now, can only look forward to even bigger headaches in the future.

Not a pleasant thought...IMO.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
IMO...the only way to predict the closing odds with any decree of accuracy is by "handicapping" the late-betting Whales. And, since their handicapping and betting methods are WAY more sophisticated than ours...that isn't likely to ever happen. And...if things get even worse for us in the future, which is exactly what we both think will happen...then, good night Irene.

That actually turned on a light bulb for me. Great idea.

Thanks.

[lamboguy]

what goes through my head about this mess sounds to silly to post.

we now have P. Matties, who if he's not the top horse handicapper in the world he's in the top 5, weighing in here about tote infractions, putting it politely. he is now paying closer attention to the tote before and after the race, where normally he would be spending his precious time handicapping the next group of races. i have not spoken to him, but my guess he is doing some serious head scratching trying to figure out what is going on.

[PaceAdvantage]

Don't scratch your head too hard.

It's pretty obvious what is going on. (hint - not past posting)

But, I hope you put up a video soon.

[PaceAdvantage]

Anybody watching the 2nd at Penn National tonight?

I had a conditional wager in for the #5 @ 2-1 minimum odds.

My bet didn't go through...and AmWager is the place where they continue to monitor your horse AFTER 0mtp...meaning, if this horse ever ticked up to 2-1 at any point before the race, my bet would have been made.

Seeing that the horse won and paid $6.40 no less, I have to believe this was a clear case of pool manipulation somehow.

The #11 was the clear favorite in the doubles like, FOREVER...and the final odds on that one was 7/5. But this horse was nowhere near 7/5 for most if not all of the betting, if you look at the chart on AmWager.

I wasn't actually watching this race, so if anyone has a more clear picture for how the win betting went in this race, I'd love to see it.

I'm furious again...not that I missed out on a ****ing 2/1 winner...but shit like this is chipping away and chipping away and chipping away at my ability to make a profit in this game, whether the horse is 2/1 only AFTER the race goes off, or is 9-1 when I bet but pays 9/2 in the end. It all adds up to a seriously reduced ROI.

[iamt]

http://www.buildabet2.com/ include an odds graph if you click on a race, by runner.

It isn't perfect but it just looks like the 11 was hammered late, and not any cancelling going on with the 5 as most horses drifted up.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yeah, the 5 opened at 3/2 and the 11 opened at 5/1. The 5 briefly hit 2-1 at 15mtp, but was never 2/1 again until after the race started, when it jumped from 7/5 to over 2/1 at the end.

Meanwhile, the 11 never went below 4/1 until a few minutes before post time, which is kind of insane.

Makes one think the 5 was manipulated lower to prevent people from betting on it all along. Like I said, the 11 was the clear favorite in the doubles when I started checking midway through the 1st race betting action.

There was no reason why the 5 should have been hammered early like that and kept low throughout until the very end.

Was that money coming off the #5 at the end via a cancel? Was it a TON of money on the #11 at the end and nothing came off the #5?

Would be interesting to find out.