Diamondrella

[the_fat_man]

Certainly one of the more interesting players in this year's BC. Goes from being a PLUG when Violette had her to early entry in 3 BC races. Obviously 10F is too long for her but she's intriguing in the turf sprint and mile.

[Valuist]

I thought she had a perfect trip in that Keeneland race. Pace was very deceptive due to the soft turf but the field was really, really strung out. At the quarter pole you could see she was in perfect position, ready to pounce on the spent leaders and the chalk still had a bit too much to do.

[the_fat_man]

I suggest you go back and watch the race again. It's not like I'm touting the horse, and it certainly appears that she likes the off going, but

1) she was slammed at the game
2) went the entire backstretch without cover widest

and

covered more ground in the race than ALL the other horses, as indicated by the Trakus data below (Feet to the left, lengths to the right; indicating distance covered by others in relation to winner)

-11 -1 1/4
-20 -2 1/4
-39 -4 1/2
-3 -1/4
-41 -4 3/4
-38 -4 1/4
-32 -3 3/4
-63-7 1/4

Hard to buy the 'perfect trip' argument, wouldn't you think? Not to mention that Forever Together hung like a rat; like she did in the BEL race against D. Sad but true.

[Tom]

Interesting TFM....the Trakus seems to say a length is 8.6-8.8 feet.
Where did you get that data? From the website? I'd like to look at more of that.

[the_fat_man]

http://www.keeneland.com/racing/List...alt.aspx#chart

[Tom]

TY!

[Bochall]

Think the turf sprint is the place for Diamondrella. She's a nice filly who's really come to hand, but she can't sniff the class coming in for the Mile, and the F&M Turf seems too far for her.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

http://www.keeneland.com/racing/List...alt.aspx#chart

I watched and went thru the chart. It only solidifies my opinion that the number one factor, by far, in this race, was the ridiculously fast pace. You never see turf races strung out like that. After 4 furlongs, Diamondrella was 5th but already 17 lengths out of it. The fractions on paper don't look giant because the course was a bog. They run that race at Santa Anita and the fractions are :45 3/5 and 1:09 4/5. While I don't normally like a widish trip on grass, when the leaders are flying up front and figure to stagger late, its better than getting stuck behind them when they back up. Turning for home, Diamondrella was over 10 lengths back but even then she looked like a winner; ready to pounce with a clear run, and a good 3 lengths in front of the next horse. Forever Together was also aided by the fast pace and should be downgraded. A big effort from the runnerup to hang around.

Maragh's comments were also interesting. He basically said he had one eye on Forever Together and just wanted to make sure he had first run on her, which he did.

[cj]

For what it is worth, I have the 6f pace figure 26 points faster than the speed figure. I use the Beyer scale, so that would be about 10.5 lengths.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

Interesting TFM....the Trakus seems to say a length is 8.6-8.8 feet.
Where did you get that data? From the website? I'd like to look at more of that.

Now we are getting into an extremely relevant point about the potential errors many popular figure makers are currently making that impact the figures of big winners (inflated) and well beaten overmatched horses (deflated)

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

For what it is worth, I have the 6f pace figure 26 points faster than the speed figure. I use the Beyer scale, so that would be about 10.5 lengths.

Sounds quite fast.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by cj

For what it is worth, I have the 6f pace figure 26 points faster than the speed figure. I use the Beyer scale, so that would be about 10.5 lengths.

That definitely makes sense. Both Diamondrella and Forever Together were flattered by the fact the race was falling apart late.