PA Derby and Cotillion

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

Hey I never said the figures for Bayern and Untapable should be the same, I just said I think a 17 point spread is a little much. Bayern set a track record yes, but rewatch the 10th race. The track was BLISTERING fast. Bayern running lights out would be expected. Horses passing to win in the stretch where struggling all day long.

There was 40 mins to post for the Pa Derby, so maybe the track was watered right after the previous race and dried out a bit and changed the surface?

Just something to think about.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

There was 40 mins to post for the Pa Derby, so maybe the track was watered right after the previous race and dried out a bit and changed the surface?

Just something to think about.

Meh, no matter. I pay little attention to Beyer's anyways. Mainly because they make little sense. Like when a Filly who has won everything under the sun vs. other fillies beats the track bias to take a $1,000,000 G1 race and gets a lower number than a horse who was stalking the leader at the 3/8 pole and completely fell apart to finish 6th in the very next race.

No big deal. I think Untapable is just fine.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

Meh, no matter. I pay little attention to Beyer's anyways. Mainly because they make little sense. Like when a Filly who has won everything under the sun vs. other fillies beats the track bias to take a $1,000,000 G1 race and gets a lower number than a horse who was stalking the leader at the 3/8 pole and completely fell apart to finish 6th in the very next race.

No big deal. I think Untapable is just fine.

What horses have done in the past has nothing to do with calculating a speed figure (at least it shouldn't have anything to do with it). And, CC was off the speedy rail when he tried to make his run too, he just had nothing left to give (he was also boxed in most of the race). If you adjust his time by beaten lengths and apply the same variant, or similar, to both horses, I think you'll find that CC's adjusted time warranted a higher speed figure than Untapable. He also was running 9f while Untapable was running only 8.5. I suppose you could adjust Untapable up a point or two, maybe, depending on how the pace differed (although CC was trying to close against a fairly slow pace and should get credit for that when figuring his speed figure), but she still ends up with a lower figure, IMO.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but I think it's really easy to allow personal biases to influence subjective judgments, like adjusting speed figures for pace, perceived track speed, path biases, etc., etc., after the fact. Personal biases, like favoring a horse because they have dominated races in the past, should carry no weight in these judgments. It should be all about this race, not previous ones.

I do agree with you that Untapable is just fine, she just wasn't up to her best race Saturday.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by raybo

What horses have done in the past has nothing to do with calculating a speed figure (at least it shouldn't have anything to do with it). And, CC was off the speedy rail when he tried to make his run too, he just had nothing left to give (he was also boxed in most of the race). If you adjust his time by beaten lengths and apply the same variant, or similar, to both horses, I think you'll find that CC's adjusted time warranted a higher speed figure than Untapable. He also was running 9f while Untapable was running only 8.5. I suppose you could adjust Untapable up a point or two, maybe, depending on how the pace differed (although CC was trying to close against a fairly slow pace and should get credit for that when figuring his speed figure), but she still ends up with a lower figure, IMO.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but I think it's really easy to allow personal biases to influence subjective judgments, like adjusting speed figures for pace, perceived track speed, path biases, etc., etc., after the fact. Personal biases, like favoring a horse because they have dominated races in the past, should carry no weight in these judgments. It should be all about this race, not previous ones.

I do agree with you that Untapable is just fine, she just wasn't up to her best race Saturday.

I'm not building in any personal biases, I probable like Chrome better than Untapable anyway.

I'm looking at the 10th, 11th and 12th races from PARX and thinking she is the only winner that passed anything. She ran a bigger race than the # shows.

I guess we can agree that if a horse wins a $1,000,000 G1 without being up to her best race, she must be pretty good. Winning on that track Saturday tells me she could deal with a bias on BC day too

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

You're just so used to jocks letting other jocks get their favorite trip that when something like this happens, its seems "dirty" or unusual but in reality, its how jocks should ride.

I'm used to jocks not throwing away their own chances just to undermine the chances of another.

There were two speeds in the race. One of them was Bayern. The other, who would 'normally' be the biggest threat to Bayern taking a necessary breather, was instead fully engaged in slowing down CC. I don't see how that is in the best interest of the 24/1 speed. Unless...

Given the loud complaints by Baffert about other speeds undermining Game On Dude's chances (he even mentioned it again as reason to retire the gelding), it wouldn't really surprise me if this counter strategy was born in his mind. Take the longshot speed off Bayern and use him instead to bother CC. That second speed was the key to the race. So why did that horse race against his preferred running style, unless that was always the plan? And if it was always the plan, who did it favor? The person that came up with the plan?

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

I'm not building in any personal biases, I probable like Chrome better than Untapable anyway.

I'm looking at the 10th, 11th and 12th races from PARX and thinking she is the only winner that passed anything. She ran a bigger race than the # shows.

I guess we can agree that if a horse wins a $1,000,000 G1 without being up to her best race, she must be pretty good. Winning on that track Saturday tells me she could deal with a bias on BC day too

I agree, Untapable is a fine horse. I even stated before the race that she shouldn't be bet against, and that I would pass the race due to her low odds. She under-impressed me with her performance that day, but that doesn't mean she is not still a fine horse, and should acquit herself quite well in the BC.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

I'm looking at the 10th, 11th and 12th races from PARX and thinking she is the only winner that passed anything. She ran a bigger race than the # shows.

I don't think anyone would dispute that.

The question is whether overcoming a track bias while running a 94 Beyer to win the Cotillion by a length over Sweet Reason (who also moved outside on the turn after being inside for much of the race) and 2 lengths over Jo Jo Warrior (who was used outside to clear Cassatt before getting to the rail) is as good a performance as crushing the quality 12 horse field in the Ky Oaks with a Beyer of 107.

That's the only question I have been asking since before the race.

The question is not whether she's still good.

The question is whether she's as good as she was back then and what the fair odds on her were in the Cotillion and now in the Distaff since her reputation doesn't seem to have taken much of a hit despite 3 straight races that IMO appear to be below that hyped peak.

[horses4courses]

I read that Chrome's connections pocketed $210K for the Philly trip.
$100K bonus twice as a winner of the KY Derby and Preakness,
plus $10K for finishing 6th.

Heck, they had it made as soon as he got in the gate!

Warren Eves ‏@warrenthebull 5m
California Chrome banked $210,000 4 his Penn Derby trip. $100K each 4 KyDby & Preakness wins. $10K 4 6th.

[tophatmert]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

I'm used to jocks not throwing away their own chances just to undermine the chances of another.

There were two speeds in the race. One of them was Bayern. The other, who would 'normally' be the biggest threat to Bayern taking a necessary breather, was instead fully engaged in slowing down CC. I don't see how that is in the best interest of the 24/1 speed. Unless...

Given the loud complaints by Baffert about other speeds undermining Game On Dude's chances (he even mentioned it again as reason to retire the gelding), it wouldn't really surprise me if this counter strategy was born in his mind. Take the longshot speed off Bayern and use him instead to bother CC. That second speed was the key to the race. So why did that horse race against his preferred running style, unless that was always the plan? And if it was always the plan, who did it favor? The person that came up with the plan?

If they planned to go after Bayern early they could not have gotten a worse jockey to do it. Edgar Prado is not good right now and he has been unaggressive for the last 15 years. If the plan was to sit second off of Bayern it was a perfect ride.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I don't think anyone would dispute that.

The question is whether overcoming a track bias while running a 94 Beyer to win the Cotillion by a length over Sweet Reason (who also moved outside on the turn after being inside for much of the race) and 2 lengths over Jo Jo Warrior (who was used outside to clear Cassatt before getting to the rail) is as good a performance as crushing the quality 12 horse field in the Ky Oaks with a Beyer of 107.

That's the only question I have been asking since before the race.

The question is not whether she's still good.

The question is whether she's as good as she was back then and what the fair odds on her were in the Cotillion and now in the Distaff since her reputation doesn't seem to have taken much of a hit despite 3 straight races that IMO appear to be below that hyped peak.

It's one of those, things where she has lost a step, but if you are 3 steps faster than everyone to start with what does it all mean. LOL

FWIW I didn't bet her at those odds Saturday, I just think she ran better than the number shows.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by RaceTrackDaddy

Missed the track record by a tick..

http://www.thoroughbredink.com/Track...ladelphia.html

That's a really old list...
The current track record for 6f at Parx is
Royal Currier Sept 2011 1:07.51

[NY BRED]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

I read that Chrome's connections pocketed $210K for the Philly trip.
$100K bonus twice as a winner of the KY Derby and Preakness,
plus $10K for finishing 6th.

Heck, they had it made as soon as he got in the gate!

or, as another way of looking at this huge mistake by Parx:

"What come around goes around'

Why induce the owners of the "champion" to travel to a 1,000,000
purse, when in fact CC needs one or more races prior to November?

This money could have been better spent as a donation to
the PDJF or retirement centers for retired horses. Better yet,
the owners could have accepted this money and returned
it to Parx ,and/or a worthwhile cause.

However, this would be a class move, which these money hungry
pieces of garbage will never attain.

Can't wait to see DAP get their asses kicked in the BC, if in
fact they have the courage to enter.

[whodoyoulike]

Has anyone said why CC was off for so long? I don't think he performed so badly. No one was going to catch Bayern.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Has anyone said why CC was off for so long? I don't think he performed so badly. No one was going to catch Bayern.

I think they thought that the TC was so grueling that he needed the time off to recuperate. Sherman is not one to rush training, also.

[raybo]

Does anyone have the TimeformUS pace and speed figures for CC, Untapable, and Bayern? I haven't seen them yet.