Kentucky Oaks

[yankeelpn]

I feel the pace in the Oaks will be fast and need a good deep closer to catch the pace at the end, any ideas??? Key horse for me is "Restless Rider" any more I should be looking at? Thx!

[Afleet]

Chocolate Kisses

[yankeelpn]

Thx, I'll add "Street Band" also to the mix!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Jaywalk. She has no crossbreeding within the first five generations. And neither does her dam (Lady Pewitt) or damsire (Orientate).

[Afleet]

never know what to think about Istan horses going long; like the bottom of the pedigree though

[f2tornado]

Agree the race looks like a massive meltdown waiting to happen. Bellafina is highly likely to be pounded at the windows yet seems quite vulnerable in this setup. It was already questionable if she could hold up at 9F before all this speed showed up. The potential is there for some healthy gimmick payouts. Restless Rider looks legit going longer. Jaywalk hasn’t matched her BCJF run yet but should t be dismissed. Dunbar Road would be interesting if she gets in. I don’t see a true Abel Tasman closing type here otherwise I’d be champing at the bit to hammer it.

[yankeelpn]

Wish there was a Abel Tasman this year lol, I cleaned house that year! My key horses are: Restless Rider and Street Band so far.

[Fightingirish51195]

Champagne anyone?

[GMB@BP]

Is it me or is this the weakest Oaks field in a long while.......Bellafina is a solid horse but I have real questions at this distance. Last years race felt much deeper in quality.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Champagne anyone?

I'll have another

I agree on the pace, and the pace could actually go all the way here. Flip a coin...

That filly Dunbar Road is a solid type, could get a piece in any pace scenario, and could even get lucky in the right setup.


Mannn starting to look at the Derby/Oaks probables




have to remember to 'breathe'

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Everything on paper says this should a ridiculously hot pace. However, all the jocks, trainers, and owners know that as well.

Bellafina stands out as a possible superstar, but others could easily upset.

Out for a Spin: Took a major class jump last out at 52/1 in the G1 Ashland and came out a winner while stalking the pace and walling off a couple of rivals. Maybe last time was to time to have her, but she is undoubtedly improving and Irad gets the call on top. This 3 time winner in 5 starts wouldn't be near the shocker as last out.

Chocolate Kisses: I'm nowhere near sold on this one as she got the perfect set up 2 back, and hasn't beat much other than that dream trip. She was inside in the Ashland and didn't care much for it, and will be inside again. Pass.

Lady Apple: 3 for 3 as a 3YO. While she hasn't beat a bunch of world-beaters, she is winning and getting better every race out. She can sit and come late, and Asmussen kills it at Churchill.

Bellafina: She'll be the favorite. 3 for 3 as a 3YO, however, I'm not sold she has beat much. 5, 5, and 4 horse fields, and only one of her rivals is in here. Also needs to be near the front, and 9 panels is a serious question for a likely less than even money favorite. Have to include in horizontals, but an almost assured play against in WP and Exactas.

Flor de La Mar: Runner up to Bellafina last out, and will be running her 4th career race. Ran in a lot of small fields in CA, but is training lights out coming in. $500K purchase for a Baffert trained filly that could be anything. Interesting.

Positive Spirit: I'm sure many will see her as the lone 9 panel filly in the race, and not only done it once, but twice. Problem is, neither of her 9F races are all that impressive. She won one at The Duct in December, winning by 10, but with a time of 1:56. Was that an Arabian race? Her last out at 9Fs she got a ridiculously easy pace and couldn't seal the deal. Pass.

Jaywalk: 2YO champ hasn't had a great start to her 3YO season, but it isn't as awful as it seems. She did fight back on the rail a bit with her disappointing 3rd last out, and in her 3rd as a 3YO we could see her get back a bit to her form that let her romp by 5+ at this very track in the BC Juvy Filly.

Motion Emotion: Full on need the lead type in a field full of speed. Massive pace factor but hard seeing her get 9F even with Mike Smith in the irons.

Liora: She got some nice setups in her last two and couldn't get the job done. Solid works here at CDs rolling in so a tote board check must be at hand for this one.

Champagne Anyone: She has the name anybody would like, and the preferable style in this supposed speedfest. Not sure I can see her as a winner, but definite exotics player.

Jeltrin: 63/1, 125/1, and 52/1 in her last 3 including a win in her last. The Rodney Dangerfield of the field will still be going off at double digits tomorrow, and will be coming late. Her last 2 are about as good as any in here.

Street Band: Won 2 of her last 3 and has stepped up in class in doing so. Not sold she is a closer as much as speed in front died. Definite exotics player that could be passing others late.

Serengeti Empress: Pure front-runner with a bad post. Vanned off last out, and is an 8/1 ML. Complete toss for me.

Restless Rider: One of the few closers in the race should get a good setup. However, she has a bit of 2nditis to her and is only running her 2nd race as a 3YO. A likely must inlcude on about any exotic ticket, but is she ready to roll this one home?


AE's: Both solid contenders. I prefer the Point of Honor if she can get in. Dunbar Road is also interesting.



WIN:
EX:

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Everything on paper says this should a ridiculously hot pace. However, all the jocks, trainers, and owners know that as well.

Bellafina stands out as a possible superstar, but others could easily upset.

Out for a Spin: Took a major class jump last out at 52/1 in the G1 Ashland and came out a winner while stalking the pace and walling off a couple of rivals. Maybe last time was to time to have her, but she is undoubtedly improving and Irad gets the call on top. This 3 time winner in 5 starts wouldn't be near the shocker as last out.

Chocolate Kisses: I'm nowhere near sold on this one as she got the perfect set up 2 back, and hasn't beat much other than that dream trip. She was inside in the Ashland and didn't care much for it, and will be inside again. Pass.

Lady Apple: 3 for 3 as a 3YO. While she hasn't beat a bunch of world-beaters, she is winning and getting better every race out. She can sit and come late, and Asmussen kills it at Churchill.

Bellafina: She'll be the favorite. 3 for 3 as a 3YO, however, I'm not sold she has beat much. 5, 5, and 4 horse fields, and only one of her rivals is in here. Also needs to be near the front, and 9 panels is a serious question for a likely less than even money favorite. Have to include in horizontals, but an almost assured play against in WP and Exactas.

Flor de La Mar: Runner up to Bellafina last out, and will be running her 4th career race. Ran in a lot of small fields in CA, but is training lights out coming in. $500K purchase for a Baffert trained filly that could be anything. Interesting.

Positive Spirit: I'm sure many will see her as the lone 9 panel filly in the race, and not only done it once, but twice. Problem is, neither of her 9F races are all that impressive. She won one at The Duct in December, winning by 10, but with a time of 1:56. Was that an Arabian race? Her last out at 9Fs she got a ridiculously easy pace and couldn't seal the deal. Pass.

Jaywalk: 2YO champ hasn't had a great start to her 3YO season, but it isn't as awful as it seems. She did fight back on the rail a bit with her disappointing 3rd last out, and in her 3rd as a 3YO we could see her get back a bit to her form that let her romp by 5+ at this very track in the BC Juvy Filly.

Motion Emotion: Full on need the lead type in a field full of speed. Massive pace factor but hard seeing her get 9F even with Mike Smith in the irons.

Liora: She got some nice setups in her last two and couldn't get the job done. Solid works here at CDs rolling in so a tote board check must be at hand for this one.

Champagne Anyone: She has the name anybody would like, and the preferable style in this supposed speedfest. Not sure I can see her as a winner, but definite exotics player.

Jeltrin: 63/1, 125/1, and 52/1 in her last 3 including a win in her last. The Rodney Dangerfield of the field will still be going off at double digits tomorrow, and will be coming late. Her last 2 are about as good as any in here.

Street Band: Won 2 of her last 3 and has stepped up in class in doing so. Not sold she is a closer as much as speed in front died. Definite exotics player that could be passing others late.

Serengeti Empress: Pure front-runner with a bad post. Vanned off last out, and is an 8/1 ML. Complete toss for me.

Restless Rider: One of the few closers in the race should get a good setup. However, she has a bit of 2nditis to her and is only running her 2nd race as a 3YO. A likely must inlcude on about any exotic ticket, but is she ready to roll this one home?


AE's: Both solid contenders. I prefer the Point of Honor if she can get in. Dunbar Road is also interesting.



WIN:
EX:

Why not?

[Suff]

Posted 1 hour ago
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...

.A mesoscale convective vortex over northeastern Arkansas is
forecast to move northeastward into Kentucky overnight. This
feature will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms with
the potential for heavy rainfall. This rainfall, combined with
rainfall over the past few days may result in flash flooding in
some areas overnight and early Friday morning.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Indiana and Kentucky,
including the following areas, in Indiana, Clark, Crawford,
Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson, Orange, Perry, Scott, and
Washington. In Kentucky, Anderson, Breckinridge, Bullitt,
Butler, Edmonson, Franklin, Grayson, Hancock, Hardin,
Harrison, Hart, Henry, Jefferson, Larue, Logan, Marion, Meade,
Mercer, Nelson, Ohio, Oldham, Scott, Shelby, Spencer, Trimble,
Warren, Washington, and Woodford.

* From midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight through Friday morning

* Another round of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
is expected to move through the watch area overnight and early
Friday morning. 1 to 2 inches of additional rainfall with some
localized higher amounts is possible.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Why not?

Damn good question.


I'd never talk anybody off of her. I'll have her in my Oaks/Derby double.



Just think are the 2 I want here on top for the price. Race screams chaos to me.

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Damn good question.


I'd never talk anybody off of her. I'll have her in my Oaks/Derby double.



Just think are the 2 I want here on top for the price. Race screams chaos to me.

I like her to be coming late, along with the ,,