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Old 11-03-2018, 01:52 PM   #1
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SPEED FIGURE COMPARISONS

HOW WELL DO THE VARIOUS SPEED FIGURE GENERATORS PERFORM

FOR THE TOP THREE PUBLIC CHOICES AS JUDGED BY THE $1 RETURN?

THANKS
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Old 11-03-2018, 03:52 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
HOW WELL DO THE VARIOUS SPEED FIGURE GENERATORS PERFORM

FOR THE TOP THREE PUBLIC CHOICES AS JUDGED BY THE $1 RETURN?

THANKS
What are the criteria? What makes a horse a "figure" pick?
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Old 11-03-2018, 04:44 PM   #3
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What are the criteria? What makes a horse a "figure" pick?
data that indicates it has an edge..

in this case I'm looking for data as to how well the figure performs against the publics top three. no other criteria.

say the public's top pick returns $.87 on the dollar, the 2nd pick say $.80, the third, say $0.75.

now say the top public's top pick with the highest pace generator "a" returns $.95 on the dollar, generator "b" $.85 on the dollar, well I would be interested, as a start, to look further into generator "a".


that's just the start of the analysis.
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Old 11-03-2018, 04:48 PM   #4
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data that indicates it has an edge..

in this case I'm looking for data as to how well the figure performs against the publics top three. no other criteria.

say the public's top pick returns $.87 on the dollar, the 2nd pick say $.80, the third, say $0.75.

now say the top public's top pick with the highest pace generator "a" returns $.95 on the dollar, generator "b" $.85 on the dollar, well I would be interested, as a start, to look further into generator "a".


that's just the start of the analysis.
This is what I am asking though, what is generator "a" or whatever? You have to have some kind of criteria to define what figure or figures are the ones to use.
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Old 11-03-2018, 06:48 PM   #5
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This is what I am asking though, what is generator "a" or whatever? You have to have some kind of criteria to define what figure or figures are the ones to use.
I would like to compare the effectiveness of anyone that generates pace figures like yourself, Beyer, Quirin (speed), Bris (power) , etal
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Old 11-03-2018, 07:07 PM   #6
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I would like to compare the effectiveness of anyone that generates pace figures like yourself, Beyer, Quirin (speed), Bris (power) , etal
I think what cj is asking is which figure are you using for comparison? Is it the last figure at the distance/surface, the most representative figure of the last 3, the best 2 out of 3 average? There are many ways to use speed figures.
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Old 11-03-2018, 07:44 PM   #7
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I think what cj is asking is which figure are you using for comparison? Is it the last figure at the distance/surface, the most representative figure of the last 3, the best 2 out of 3 average? There are many ways to use speed figures.
Exactly.
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Old 11-03-2018, 09:55 PM   #8
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I think what cj is asking is which figure are you using for comparison? Is it the last figure at the distance/surface, the most representative figure of the last 3, the best 2 out of 3 average? There are many ways to use speed figures.
if I had the data I would look at all the above, from each generator for say, the public's top choice .

say generator "a" best two out of three for the top choice yields a $1 return of $.90, generator "b" $.85 ..

how else would you compare the value of the figures?
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Old 11-03-2018, 10:56 PM   #9
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No one has done a comparison in years.



There was a thread on PA last year on the subject and Ron Tiller from HDW supplied some info, as did I.



Here's the link http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a.../t-140490.html
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Old 11-04-2018, 12:36 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
if I had the data I would look at all the above, from each generator for say, the public's top choice .

say generator "a" best two out of three for the top choice yields a $1 return of $.90, generator "b" $.85 ..

how else would you compare the value of the figures?
For like the 3rd time now, how are you measuring the speed figures? If you tell us that, I could help with mine. I doubt you are going to find somebody that can do it for all the speed figures. Nobody is going to have that kind of data. The best you can hope for is various people sharing what they have for individual figures.

But, you can't compare apples to oranges. We have to know VERY SPECIFIC criteria. Yes, I get it, comparing to the top choice, but how are we deciding the "figure" horse in each race?
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Old 11-04-2018, 09:12 AM   #11
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For like the 3rd time now, [b]how are you measuring the speed figures?[/B] If you tell us that, I could help with mine. I doubt you are going to find somebody that can do it for all the speed figures. Nobody is going to have that kind of data. The best you can hope for is various people sharing what they have for individual figures.

But, you can't compare apples to oranges. We have to know VERY SPECIFIC criteria. Yes, I get it, comparing to the top choice, but how are we deciding the "figure" horse in each race?
I'm not measuring speed figures
I'm looking for anyone that provides speed figures to tell me their $1 return. set any criteria you wish.

For instance
From HTR Monthly Report April 2001
Quirin speed points:
dirt routes (no wet tracks or maidens tested)
8 Quirin points, … I need to read the entire article. a few caveats to consider.

I'll get back to you.
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Old 11-04-2018, 01:02 PM   #12
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I'm not a speed figure basher. I've defended Beyer on here many times, and obviously CJ is one of the sharpest guys in figure making these days. However, since everyone is aware of speed figures and they drive much of the wagering dollar, aren't you just going to find that the top figure horse is usually the favorite and returns what the favorite does? Of course you would be foolish to blindly bet the top figure horse in every single race regardless of context, but do you really expect to find one figure returning 98 cents on the dollar or something that favorable? They're all going to be around the takeout rate.
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Old 11-04-2018, 01:03 PM   #13
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This thread is like an Abbott and Costello skit.

Define the paramenters you want tested.

1. Best race last time out.
2. Best of last 2.
3. Best of last 3.
4. Average best 2 of last 3.
5. Most representative race of last 3.
6. Best race of last 3 eliminating off tracks

Make up a list like that and then you might get feedback on how a certain set of figures does in that category. You can't just ask for a return without specificying the criteria.
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Old 11-04-2018, 03:58 PM   #14
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This thread is like an Abbott and Costello skit.

Define the paramenters you want tested.

1. Best race last time out.
2. Best of last 2.
3. Best of last 3.
4. Average best 2 of last 3.
5. Most representative race of last 3.
6. Best race of last 3 eliminating off tracks

Make up a list like that and then you might get feedback on how a certain set of figures does in that category. You can't just ask for a return without specificying the criteria.
How about working it backwards.
"Here is the best value under x y z conditions"
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Last edited by formula_2002; 11-04-2018 at 04:01 PM.
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Old 11-04-2018, 04:11 PM   #15
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I'm not a speed figure basher. I've defended Beyer on here many times, and obviously CJ is one of the sharpest guys in figure making these days. However, since everyone is aware of speed figures and they drive much of the wagering dollar, aren't you just going to find that the top figure horse is usually the favorite and returns what the favorite does? Of course you would be foolish to blindly bet the top figure horse in every single race regardless of context, but do you really expect to find one figure returning 98 cents on the dollar or something that favorable? They're all going to be around the takeout rate.
Actually, studies have shown that horses win at about the rate their odds would predict so that playing them at random would pretty much would put you around the takeout rate. If one can improve on the win percentage of favorites or come up with a few longer priced horses than favorites, using figures or some other method or combination thereof, one can beat the takeout rate and even show a profit. However it can't be done using one simplistic factor such as top figure.

Last edited by bobphilo; 11-04-2018 at 04:14 PM.
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